Thursday 21st January + AW
ROBIN - Ludlow 3.10 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 3 miles - 17 run - Soft likely Heavy / standing water...
This is a very poor race and the majority of the field have no proven form at the trip or in likely attritional Going, so I want to try to find some hidden form and therefore value.
If we wook first at the top of the market, there are 3 likely ones on form and yards they come from. The obvious one is TWOJAYS LAD in form, fine at trip but best on better going. Lessenkhan comes from Twiston-Davies yard, ok so far up to 3 miles 5 furlongs faded on only try at 3 miles but if getting a nice trot round could be a big danger. Kavagash is from the Venetia Williams yard, best at shorter, OK on soft, has tried 3 miles but so far not proven it gets the trip. They are the most likely winners or placed horses but hardly appealing credentials and I'm looking for better value. No surprise if they dominate but prices offer me no each way value.
Midnight Mustang gets the trip, is OK on soft, is 14 years old now but ticks more boxes than most and a solid each way saver bet.. The Toojumpa gets the trip too but far better over Hurdles, if jumping round, stamina alone would give him a squeak. Dorado Dollar is from the inform Ben Case yard, but doubts about stamina and Going. Battle of ideas is solid at shorter trips, the Tizzard link is obviously an eye opener, niggle about yard form and Going put me off. Fact Flow has won a 2 miles and 6 furlongs, placed at 3 miles but best is on much better Going. Of those I think Fact Flow and MIDNIGHT MUSTARD are most likely but I'll throw a bet at the veteran.
Of the rest I keep coming back to ROCK ON AUSSIE locally trained by Matt Shepherd, place and staying on in a 3 mile P2P has shown glimmers under Rules over shorter and with the local Trainer connection, one I think who can hunt round, pick off rivals and may be nick a place at big Odds. A bit of scope there and we know from P2P days it can get 3 miles and run hard to the line.
You take your chance at these prices, can be made to look daft, but a chance I'm happy to take and you've got to speculate to accumulate
TRACKERS - Midnight Mustang + Rock On Aussie
Wincanton is ON but very Heavy, extended race distances so I will have small bets in big Chase at 3.50 on ONE OF US and DAWSON CITY at bigger odds both more likely than most to plod round for some small profit
AW - Lingfield 12.30 - Class 5 - Handicap - 1 mile 4 furlongs - 11 run - Standard
A bit of a topsy turvy race with some seemingly here for fitness and a few not yet really proven at the trip but just turned 4 and with some scope still to progress.
Good Reason at around 33/1 is an ex Saeed Bin Suroor inmate whose sole win was on this surface at Chelmsford off a mark of 68, quite highly tried after that and never replicated the form, changed yards and off a mark of 73 but off a 101 day break might we one to track if showing anything on this surface again today. Nawar is of interest after trouble in running last time has won over a mile but just want to see conclusively it gets this trip. Harlow from the Ian Williams yard is a winner on Tapeta at just over a mile, ok at 10 furlongs on Turf and could be a springer it coping with the track on Course debut.
Galahad Threepwood for Mick Channon has solid form over 10-12 furlongs off 68 days and just doesn't seem to have a finishing kick but solid enough. Pledge of Peace for Laura Mongan gets the services of Hollie Doyle, another who is solid if unspectacular and hopes seem to be more in the saddle in terms of the bit extra needed to win, Fraser Island is a Heberson horse dropped in Class, 3rd and stone last off this mark last twice here and could win but the price after that last run does not represent value.
Rafiot for the in form Gary Moore is clearly the one to beat but I can't be doing with that yard at short prices so will have an each way punt at nice each way odds on PERCEY PROSECCO, best over further but capable off a good pace, has been runner up at this trip on soft turf off a mark of 68, ran well in an NHF race here last time out, has won at 14 furlongs on AW at Wolverhampton, at this trip on turf at Catterick and over a bit shorter also on turf at Yarmouth off marks from 59 up to 66...in form yard, Luke Morris booked 68 looks decent mark and solid each way value.
TRACKER - Percy Prosecco