Ayr 2.40

Ayr 2.40 4 Well Above Par / 7 Robintheaulad (1/4 point each way each @ 7/1 *)

The race may well be taken by one of the 3 favourites, it is a very compact market at the moment but
I can't see any market value in Royal Plaza (one Hurdle win in soft but notoriously soft in a finish and despite the handling
of Richard Johnson, looks no value at all. The trainers meteoric start has flattened off and the hype subsides and I want
to take anything he sends out on, when it is shorter than it should be). Socksey has the obvious plus of The names
Fergal O'Brien and Paddy Brennan has quickly emerged through Novice and Handicap Hurles to Chasing and looks a
decent prospect BUT looks to be one that needs a blow before reaching peak, and at this price, one I reluctantly take on;
although will be very interested next time out. Star Tackle is the third of the triumvirate who could win, and may well do
so but although it has won a 3 mile point to point on heavy; beating a horse now with Henderson and owned by Luke Harvey;

I think this horse was too moderate over hurdles and the P2P form not compelling enough, may need more time.

 

So; where is my perceived value?; WELL ABOVE PAR has had a run and the Russell horses all seem to be coming on
for a run, after a slow start, she is slowly gaining momentum, a moderate record so far but was described in notes last
year as "a Proper Chaser" in the making and size and strength to make a decent horse, I would suggest we should start
to see that now, with a run behind its belt. The booking of Danny Cook on ROBINTHEAULDLAD catches the eye; was
running OK before falling last time, looks one to get further and one of the few who will want to "get on with it"; I just think
it looks tailor made for a classic "Cook ride" prominently from the front, and Trainer Sandy Thompson has had 2 winners
from 4 runners in the past few weeks. The rest could be anything, of whom Buffalo Ballet is the most experienced over

Hurdles or Fences but going Chasing at the age of 10; does not really inspire confidence but this yard always a danger at Ayr.

 

So 1/4 point each way on WELL ABOVE PAR + ROBINTHEAULDLAD with the aim of a net profit on the race
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