Ascot 4.05

Ascot 4.05 Victoria Cup - Handicap Class 2 - 28 run - Going Good.
 
A very competitive renewal and I took a long look at the straight Course races yesterday. I think it's genuinely Good ground, I think pace is more a factor than Draw and it's really a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff, looking at Course specialists and proven horses in this type of race and covering off anything that may be a Group horse in sheep's clothing.
 
I ended up closely looking at 13 of the 27 and of those I discarded Eagleway who ran well in this last year on soft Going and who might be worth a small exchange place bet at the price if you believe it can repeat that run. Hieronymous looks like a horse who can step up in this type of race but may be at Goodwood and not here, Darkness is potentially a better quality horse but as yet lacks big field handicap experience, I think this is one who could really become a factor by the time of the Royal meeting!!!!.
 
Aratus is also unexposed and another who will definitely be going into my Tracker , and I feel similar profile horses are Path Of Thunder and Magical Morning, I think the last 4 named should all be very closely watched but not quite ready to win today.
 
Dark Shift and Fresh are worthy of their places at the head of the market but at their prices there were 5 that I wanted to concentrate on more in terms of investment today.
 
ONE RULER stands out for me in terms of the less exposed, possibly better Class horses in the race. It's had a run and it's reported James Doyle has missed a few good Classic Trial rides at Lingfield to focus on this horse today. IF it's the horse they think it is, it has to be placed in the first 3 or 4 here. 
 
More exposed but race fit, on nice marks and lurking are ORBAAN who fluctuates between 7 furlongs and a mile, had a couple of runs and excuses can be made for the last one and drawn 15 could get an ideal arrowhead tow with pace either side if good enough to capitalise on it. DANCE FEVER was third off 96 hre last season over Course and Distance, its had 2 runs and is drawn low and gives me one in that part of the draw that stands out from those drawn 1 to 10. RIVER NYMPH also looks well handicapped, drawn 28 on the other wing and my banker over there a Course and Distance winner last year off 100 runs off 102 and similar prep to the winning effort last year.
 
For a bit of extra shrapnel I could not leave out CHIEFOFCHIEFS for the Head Turner (Hayley), it's got good solid Course form, drawn 23, race fit and  she can still deliver tactical masterpieces when given the right horse.
 
It's just a case of whether it's a bit too early for the progressive ones we'll track like Aratus,Path Of Thunder, Magical Morning and Darkness, who I think will be at peak in about 6-7 weeks time.
 
TIP - One Ruler / Trackers - Orbaan / Dance Fever / River Nymph - shrapnel - Chiefofchiefs.