Monday 22nd February
THE ADVISOR - Carlisle 4.10 Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 13 run - soft > Heavy
There is some early light rain forecast but then turning to a brighter and sunny day so with this being the last race on the Card the Going is certain to be attritional and stamina will be a vital asset on this stiffest of UK Tracks.
At the head of the market, Bittersweetsymphony last ran in a race at Doncaster won by one of our tips Uisce Ur, it's best form is on better ground and nothing from that Doncaster run suggested a stiffer trip would be a game changer. Lugg River was quite highly tried as a Bumper horse but like many has failed to really transfer that to jumping and on the basis of form the price is a bit baffling. Of the market leaders FAME AND HOPE ridden by Brian Hughes for Gillian Bonas is probably the biggest danger, a runner up at Catterick in soft ground, no real proven heavy ground form, the fact it's in fine fettle and the booking of Hughes are the big pluses, not sure of the value though.
Stolen Money is unexposed but poor on its sole attempt on heavy but could improve, Sergeant Brody has had 2 runs at a wholly inadequate 2 miles, is better at this kind of trip but not proven on the ground but rates as big a danger as any mentioned so far and Cairnshill tends to run "choke out" will likely set a nice pace and could set the race up for a more thorough stayer, could equally steal the race off the front and if either pick is a non-runner would be reserve.
Border Victor is a danger but has very regular wind operations so clearly a stuffy horse, has form off marks in the low to mid 90's interesting off 88 even if lugging top weight but another not laden with proven heavy ground form.
EMMA BEAG will come on for season debut and might just still want this but won at Ayr on Heavy Going at this trip and Ayr gets very heavy, off 4lbs higher but best runs tend to be early in the year and can outrun Odds if fully tuned up.
At bigger Odds the most interesting one is CRANK EM UP, out of form so far but gets 4 miles and has won at 3 miles in heavy off a mark of 106 at best, runs off a very interesting mark of 91 and if it sets out in a rhythm and pace is decent and set by Cairnshill can surely stay on up the hill past beaten horses and grab a place at nice odds.
TRACKERS - Emma Beag + Crank Em Up (reserve Cairnshill)