Plumpton 2.25

Plumpton 2.25 - Sussex National - Class 3 - 3 miles 4 and 1/4 furlongs - Soft
A pretty dry night, soft going but a lot of frost in the past few days so the Going will most likely be that horrible dead and tacky type.
A few have promise but have to prove it in these conditions over an extended trip. 
Bevnevolent Dictator is a worthy favourite on form for local Yard whose horses have 2 styles of running, emphatic winners or inexplicable losers and at such short odds I really don't want to get involved. At the top end of the market i much prefer SEASTON SPIRIT who has wins of soft and heavy and at the trip, had a nice win over hurdles on seasonal debut (unpenalised) and from the Sherwood yard they will have hopes this one could yet progress in to far more exhalted company. I think the price IS good "win only or each way banker" value - so have a side stake on it.
A host of old favourites so lets run down them as it will depend a lot on who gets into a rhythm and fancies a slog round on the day on the tacky gluepot.
Bermeo ran a couple of fine races at Cheltenham and looks well handicapped and this is not a tough race in terms of form and quality, PU last time though in these type of conditions at Exeter and something of a Prestbury Park expert now for me, a horse I fear but will by-pass today. Cheque En Blanc another Gary Moore horse, Course and Distance winner OK soft, probably best on that or better and not really handicapped to strike here off this mark.Rathlin Rose has placed in this race off a mark of 128 but just a niggle for me about the more testing underfoot conditions today, could run a place though.
Salty Boy has plenty of promise but is unproven beyond 3 miles and unless hunting round off the bridle for 3 miles may struggle at the business end of the race, Special Acceptance is a similar type with some potential but an "all out" Course win over 3 furlongs shorter does not suggest proven stamina as yet.
In the conditions I think the value is with a pair of "old plodders" who will set off to finish the race and expect to come in to play on the final circuit. The fear with these types is they can lose contact and lose interest but I suspect both will be instructed to just run round and finish, and that may be enough. DAWSON CITY was runner up in this 4 years ago, plenty of good runs at extreme distances since, very solid and proven stamina off 124 has to have a good each way chance. At bigger odds is GOODNIGHT CHARLIE who although seemingly out of form for well over 12 months has in that time chipping away at a handicap mark it could not win off after a successful spell a few years ago. Won off 108 and 117 in similar conditions and trip, went up to a mark well over 120, is now back to a mark of 110 and having had a spin, might be something of a forgotten dark horse.

TIP Each Way Banker - SEASTON SPIRIT - Trackers - Dawson City + Goodnight Charlie.