(all SP2A bets are advised at 1 point each way or 2 points win but on days like today use your discretion to lower stakes if you wish).
A surprising lack of proven form over a trip of 28 furlongs or more in heavy Going; indeed when discussing the
race with Ian last night, one horse who is not running both were at the top of our thoughts (more of that later in the week as we expect
it back out soon); so a lot who are proven at 3 miles, 3 miles 2 furlongs; in soft Going. They may get home fine in a slow tactical affair
and it may be a slow tactical affair, but this track undulates a lot more than you see on the TV and they are always on or about to turn;
there is very little scope here to "switch off" and get a breath and tactically, the Course is narrow in places, so you have to have your
wits about you at all times, the climb up the final hill; done twice; is also a fair bit steeper, than TV pictures indicate.
So; I want something with proven stamina, ability in the mud and from a yard that can "ready one" at a nice price. My short list was
soon very short; 4 to be precise, on the assumption that Milansbar won't run again today and of the 4 on the shortlist the class horse
of the race is undoubtedly SHANROE SANTOS; drops in Class; proven in soft and has done OK in heavy; a 3rd at Carlisle off a mark
of 127, indicates this could be within range, if it is; the 5/1 is a sensible price, but hardly screaming out "value". LEO LUNA is locally
trained; bits of form again give it a decent chance off a mark of 124; but I'm not convinced enough about the horse or the value at 7/1.
My selected pair are both more speculative but represent the best proven stamina at the trip and further in this type of Going in the race;
if you like they are the "been there; done it; got the t-shirt" brigade. Both; have a bit to find on recent form, both may be "gone" but both
have shown enough even in recent defeats to suggest; that if they can get in to a rhythm, they can be staying on, in the final half mile when
the rest have cried "enough" and the final hill looms large. SHOTGUN PADDY as oldies do can thrown down his tools now if he gets
dethatched, he can though hunt round with these off a steady pace, if he is in contention in the final mile, he has more than enough
to pick up the bit and make what may be one last decent effort at a nice prize. He can stay on and on when in such a mood.
COOLKING is effectively the Gary Moore second string, PPP is not great form, but we know Moore is a cad; look at his last 2 runs
and both times raced very prominently; very well for a long way and simply, ran out of legs; he has won one of these type of races
at this trip in this Going at Lingfield, if ridden a little more sensibly here; we know he can get the trip and off this weight he has his
best chance in terms of handicap mark this season and could pick up a nice prize at a nice price. Plot job?; not sure; but I'm not sure
those last 2 runs were to win runs, but runs to get him "cherry fit" for this race here today, grab the price and BOG it; as if a plot is on;
it wont' last long here in home territory.
A tough race to call; they may both vanish out the back, but back to the beginning and both have proven the trip/conditions are in scope;
and for the vast majority of the rest, the fact is trip and conditions are "unknowns" and always best to have a punt on something who "can"
as opposed to who "may be able" to do something. Good Luck.