Sandown 1.50

THE ADVISOR - Novice Handicap Hurdle - Final (so everyone is theoretically trying !) - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 17 run - Heavy
 
A race that's going to test stamina to the core and although a number of these started in the P2P fields it will probably be a race where a lot get pulled up and not bottomed out for the remainder of this neason nor leave mental scars for next, they are Novices after all.
 
I'll work through those considered but ultimately discarded, Cuthbery Dibble is upped 14lbs for a facile win at Leicester that's not easy to correlate form wise and although very impressive others have stronger overall form. Crambo has only one form blot but crucially that was over this trip and in soft Going, Henri The Second, who is one of 3 for Paul Nicholls has Course and Distance form but a rising mark and the main negative for me is having to lump 12 stones around. Inneston has collateral form with a few and also Course and Distance form but yet to encounter anything this attritional. Etalon is a real dark horse for Skelton but all form is at 2 miles and this race could very possibly ride like a 3 mile race. Twinjets would have a squeak on form with a few but I think no better than a squeak, Hugos New Horse is the second of the Nicholls 3 but another whose best so far is at 2 miles and off a rising mark and Off To A Flyer although boasting 3 mile P2P form doesn't look an obvious contender to me. Crebilly is another with 3 mile P2P form and there are quietly confident vibes about this one. Frankly any one of those could win and many will surely be in contention but I found I hope 3 -4 better options on the day. 
 
Gaelic Park is in the Tracker but one for the future I think, the other TRACKER horse and both are big prices is GREY D'ALCO and this one actually really interests me at a big price. It runs off 106 and it's bare UK form is not that appealing but it has one standout P2P run in mud over 3 miles in Ireland where it finished a 4 length runner up to a horse who has gone on to win handicaps over there off marks of 130 and 143 called Corbetts Cross, look it up that horse is 9/2 for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham on Friday! , so 66/1 or not it's worth a punt.
 
My main three against the field in preference order are -: CHURCHILL BOY who has won 4 of his 5 races, has won on soft and heavy and has proven stamina impressively at this trip. TWIN POWER is the 3rd of the 3 Nicholls horses in the early markets but has some very solid Course and Distance form and although a rising mark gets in off a weight of 11 stones and looks very good each way price to me, finally CERENDIPITY who is unexposed and not an obvious form choice but Sue Smith can ready a dark one for a race like this and the conditions should match what it gets at home on the gallops more often than not!
 
Tips (1) Churchills Boy / (2) Twin Power / (3) Cerendipity - given the somewhat deep analysis I would strongly suggest a small e/w at big odds on GREY D'ALCO!