No discernable patterns with the draw yesterday so I think everyone has an equal chance and some early pace or getting a good tow in to the action seems the best opportunity.

 

There are significant number coming from the AW whose form may be better on artificial surfaces, and who may have preferred firmer Going too so I've narrowed the 18 down into a final list of 5 for closest consideration.

 

I think Dave Dexter for Roger Fell and ridden by Ben Curtis can win races, drawn in Stall 15, needs rain to thrive and may just need this off a break of 219 days but if we are to have a damp few weeks, with this run it may be one to follow very closely and not out of the question it can't take a hand today.

 

RAYONG for Karl Burke and SDS in drawn in Stall 1, will need company from there to help get it in to the race but has a win mark of 93, runner up in Class 2 off a mark of 98 and very appealing having had a preparatory run off it's last win mark of 93. I fancy it to out-run Odds.

 

COPPER KNIGHT is a standing dish here , has had 2 runs and the Yard likes to ease them into fitness and peak form. Very well handicapped off a mark of 85, drawn in the thick of the action in stall 9. The handicap mark suggests it's regressive but can't be ignored back here at York.

 

MUSCIKA is a CD specialist, last 3 runs here have been runner up and winner over 6 furlongs off 84 and 97, won at this trip off 88, has had 3 runs already so no fitness excuse, bang in the middle of the arrowhead in stall 9 and off a mark of 90 has to be strongly fancied with luck in running.

 

The favourite is COUNT D'ORSAY for Tim Easterby and David Allen rides, favoured over stablemate (Copper kNight) a Course win and a Distance winner, a draw in 14 should see it come down the Stands side of the formation and had an eye catching seasonal debut last week. Plenty to like and the price although favourite is good value.

 

Staking strategy wise, I'll have a full point each way on COUNT D'ORSAY and a Tracker 1/2 point each way on MUSCIKA and RAYONG. If any don't run Copper kNight will be my reserve and a few Tricast lines perming those 4 horses/

 

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I don't think this race is particularly deep and at head of the market, Frankinstella is solid but no real value, Polish you'd think will find this on the sharp side, the prolific Ben Lilly will find this a tough test despite it's rise from a mar of 52 to 87 in the past 8 months and Red Force One is in to new territory trip wise off a rising mark.

 

Hollie Doyle gets the ride on SARSHENKA who is 6lbs better off with Ben Lilly for 1 and a 1/2 lengths last time. Sarshenka has solid form and no excuses in terms of trip or Going and with Hollie D in the plate you'd think they would try and ride it positively.

 

At bigger odds its intriguing to see MULTELLIE who has good Flat form at 12 and 14 furlongs upped to 2 miles, enough stamina to win over 19 furlongs over Hurdles up the hill at Carlisle it could be worth a small punt to surprise the Bookies and a bit of inspired early season placement.