Wednesday 12th January
THE ADVISOR - Leicester 1.20 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 7 furlongs - Good to Soft - 13 run
There isn't a great deal of winning form, proven stamina nor evidence of solid jumping in here and one has actually jumped off the page in that context and is worth an investment.
It's a tough track with an uphill finish and the Fences are quite formidable and need bold and accurate Jumping. The Camera angle and camber of the landing and take off areas make them look possibly tougher than they are but I always want something here that has proven stamina and ability to jump round consistently.
The top 4 in the market all have questions to answer in that regard, Capricia gets the trip fine, is decent over hurdles but has made jumping errors in a limited number of runs over Fences. Out The Glen makes it's Chase debut, has placed over 3 miles in P2P racing so looks solid but it's more potential than proven form at the moment and it is very short based on actual achievement. Skinflint has been runner up at Uttoxeter over hurdles after a 747 day break, goes back quickly over Fences and has won a 3 mile P2P race but all its best form prior to the lng break was on Good Going and it'll be interesting to see if it can jump round and not "bounce". If it does it has an excellent chance. Eairsidh is unexposed and makes a Chase debut here with as yet no proof it gets this trip. The winner is most likely to come from those first 3 named but there are glimmers of form elsewhere.
Unblinking makes a belated switch to Fences and is an ex Flat horse, Leskinfere runs it's race normally, can grab the occasional place but barely gets 3 miles on far flatter and easier tracks than this, Jessie Lightfoot has placed in a hurdle but yet to prove stamina.
I'm mildly interested enough in the proven P2P form of LARCADIO to have a shrapnel bet on it, that proves it's stamina and jumping ability and despite what looks like poor form since there have been a few glimmers of ability.
The one that really jumps off the page though is DAWN RAIDER. It may be regressive but every horse has a level it can win off and some of the back form IS compelling. Placed in a 3 mile Hurdle up the hill at Cheltenham in October 2018, it's got plenty of solid Irish form over fences and at the trip and one that could enjoy this IF it gets in to a nice early rhythm and can gain the confidence of passing fatigued horses on the final circuit. The yard had a nice winner yesterday and I think it can make a bold bid at a nice price.
TRACKER - Dawn Raider / shrapnel - Larcadio
Leicester 3.50 Handicap Chase - Class 5 - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 11 run - Good to Soft.
ELKSTONE is the only TRACKER horse today having run a much better race after a wind operation at Southwell last time and immediately flagged up the next morning off the back of that. The 7/2 though is skinny, if you want a small bet based on the TRACKER info (see the table below this) then feel free but in a poor race there are a couple who I think are better value to back as singles and I will have in a T/Cast with Elkstone.
Worth mentioning Masai Warrior who also comes in to this after a wind operation and who won off marks of 74 and 76 last season, he'll be a danger if recapturing that sort of form but may just need this.
STEEL WAVE from the same yard as Dawn Raider is a winner over the trip, is solid in this Grade and is below a last win mark of 87 with Tabitha Worsley taking 5lbs off a mark of 89. No reason why this one can't run a place at least (for accuracy the yard also run a 40/1 shot in the previous race called Costly Diamond).
The one I like most though is HAPPY NEWS a Course and Distance winner of a mark of 99, also won at Ludlow off a mark of 104, they reach for cheek-pieces to just freshen the horse up and if that works it is another who has the proven ability to win a race of this type at a decent each way price.
Tracker - Happy News / shrapnel - Steel Wave ( SEE notes re Elkstone)