Wetherby 3.10 + AW tips
THE ADVISOR 3.10 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles - Class 4 - Soft>Heavy - 10 run
A chilly but dry day on what's likely to be heavy tacky Going and a bigger niggle may be low sun but worth a small investment in an interesting race.
Commit Or Quit who won on soft here before falling when leading at Warwick will be a big threat if getting round, not sure though what that fall has done to confidence nor 100% how it will handle deeper ground, so at the price let's take it on. The same applies to Seemingly So, who has been runner up over slightly shorter off marks of 112 and 115 in soft, again, not 100% sure about how it will handle tacky Going and at the price I'd be inclined to try to find something who is a stronger stayer or a bit less exposed.
Another Emotion is quirky, ran better last time, may or may not take to the headgear again and another about whom I have small doubts in terms of the trip and Going. Little Red Lion has gone up the handicap from 106 to 111 and now 114, is a big danger being upwardly mobile but may just now be in the grip of the handicapper which certainly also applies to Cash To Ash and Haul Us In, who both get ideal conditions, who can and will win races of this type, but who both look around 10lbs wrong with the handicapper at the moment. Would not be a great surprise if either of those popped up but a further hike would do neither a favour and I suspect they will run round, gain fitness, lose a bit more off their marks and be primed in a few weeks for something they can win. Eccosais has winning form at Southwell off 97 and 105, up another 5lbs and I can leave Southwell form all day long, so another I can;t enthuse about.
That really left me with SMITHS CROSS who was a decent winning 3 mile P2P2 horse, very carefully and gradually bought along by Michael Scudamore at 2 miles and then gradually upped in trip, no doubt growing and strengthening up, has form on Heavy and running very well finally up to this sort of trip last time when falling. A horse with plenty of scope, one I've had in notebook for a while and whilst it's definitely one to follow after today, I think with a clear round it can go very close and the price gives me some each way wriggle room.
TRACKER - Smiths Cross
AW - Lingfield 3.20 Handicap - Class 5 - 12 run - 1 miles 2 furlongs - Standard to Slow.
The pair at the top of the market are Madam Peltier and Kodiac Harbour. Madam Peltier won over Course and Distance off a mark of 65, disappointed last time off a mark of 71, clearly likes track and trip but off 71 again, may just have hit a ceiling somewhere between 65 and 71 and happy to take it on. Kodiac Harbour has been runner up last 3 Course and Distance runs off marks around 67, off 70 here and although an equally big danger, has looked a horse scared to win a few times, although Luke Morris will likely throw the kitchen sink at it in trying to win this.
Starfighter gets the Hollie Doyle treatment for David Loughnane, has to be feared but I think the Hollie factor has been factored in to the price which on pure Lingfield form is short enough. The other one at bigger odds to watch out for is old Michele Strogoff, strutting it's stuff in Class 3 here a year ago off marks in mid 80's and runs off a mark of 63 here, looks like it is regressing, clearly is, but as experts say, every horse can find a level. It will pop up again one day, hopefully not this one but if it went 20/1 +....would not put you off a bit of loose each way change!
The pair i like are UTHER PENDRAGON who got a 4th place bit of e/w profit for me last time here in the race won by Subliminal, it ran on well after a tardy start and last 2 runs here have seen 4th places after meeting trouble in running and that slow start, I think it needs to just break better and get a clear run to win off this static mark of 67, in fact I thought they might raise it a pound or two, it'll come late and hopefully grab me some place money at least.
The other one is THE GAME IS ON from the in form Simon Dow yard. He runs 3 more today and whilst I wouldn't put you off a small e/w treble on all three, I think this one is the best option of the bunch in terms of winning a race. Its had a 4 week break to freshen up, previously won off a 78 day break so tactic can work, has been 4th and runner up here off a mark of 69, gets a pound off the handicapper and the assistance of Adam Kirby and if fit to go, I think a bit over-priced with Yard in such good form.
Trackers - Uther Pendragon + The Game Is On...