Worcester 2.30

Worcester 2.30 5 Craig Star - 1 point each way @ 15/2 (SkyBet odds to 4th enhanced race)

The first point to make here will be about the advertised Going of Good to Soft/Soft. Worcester now focuses on
summer jumping; that follows a series of wet/flood winters when multiple Fixtures were lost as the adjacent River burst its banks.
The Fixture today is a late replacement for Hereford and it has been several years since Worcester raced this late in the year.
The Going stick reading is 6.0 and I looked back and this is the lowest Going Stick reading here since 6.2 on 9/20/2014 when
the Going was genuinely soft and 11/7/2012 when a reading of 5.8 indicated Heavy Going, so I think it will be genuinely soft with

possibly heavy patches and that is very important when identifying horses to tip.

The 2.30 sees Arthurs Gift as clear favourite but I can't see he is great value and is primarily a Good ground horse. The same applies
to Degooch and the best value towards the head of the market sees to be CRAIG STAR. It unseated last time and carries a penalty
for a nice win, over  shade further at Kelso; that track usually rides softer than advertised, so I have far fewer going concerns especially
with the proven stamina, than about many of the others. SKYBET go odds to 4th place and with a clear round and luck in running
therefore the 15/2 looks very solid each way value to 4th place. I would see Pop Rockstar as a danger, it may need further and
heavier though, but could make up a lot of places up the straight and one for the forecast, and the other dark horse/placer could be
Finual, has won first time out before and once who could make in to a nice horse this winter, one to watch/track for sure.