Epsom Derby 4.30
The Derby 4.30 has a good and competitive field, a strong and worthy Stoute trained favourite but its only had a couple of runs so lacks experience.
Charlie Appleby and Aiden O'Brien come mob handed and with conditions likely to suit proven stamina we've looked long and hard for proven form at the trip and strong pedigree lines suggesting some will improve for the trip.
Sonny liston could run a decent race from the front if settling a bit better and the price is attractive, on visual evidence Glory Daze could outrun big odds too. ROYAL PATRONAGE got within 4 lengths of Desert Crown and although we'd expect that form to be franked there are signs to suggest that if they can settle the horse it can run prominently and steal a place with a bold run.
Westover has plenty of 12 furlong form in its pedigree and seems to like some cut in the ground and could surprise a few, NAHANNI has won at the trip so a big tick in the proven stamina box, it would be a surprise winner but that proven form at the trip in soft is jumping off the page with any drop of rain. Walk of Stars from the same yard seems more of a 10 furlong horse.
Star Of India is out of Galileo as is Stone Age and both have strong claims but that market may have found both at their current odds, Desert Crown as we've touched on looks the most likely winner but the price is no betting value.
The one in likely conditions we most like is CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD a strong and powerful front-runner, proven stamina and with Steve Cauthen in town and great to see and hear him yesterday, reminded us a bit of Reference Point in stature and running style.
TRACKER - Changingoftheguard / shrapnel Nahanni + Royal Patronage