This doesn't look that deep a race although a few look very well handicapped if regressive but may be at a level they can still be competitive off. 

 

Light Up Our Stars who is in great form on the AW and Pisanello who drops back in trip but doesn't look great value at around 3/1 will be tough cookies to beat but neither really inspire me. Harswell Duke is one we've tipped in the recent past and it definitely looks a solid contender on basis of last 2 runs but at around 11/2 it's not jumping off the page at me. It's more a case of "its turn is near" and I'll wager something well handicapped can come and beat it.

 

Electrical Storm has been off for over 50 days for Saeed Bin Suroor, whether it's thrown in or good enough we'll have to wait and see, I think we can assume it'll be fit enough so it has to rate a danger. Al Qasim won a Class 5 race last week off 68, tries new headgear and from a very powerful yard but overall it doesn't look like a massive improver on visual evidence in lower Classes. Siam Fox is intriguing for Richard Hannon, it won off marks of 78 and 87 last year and looked upwardly mobile, it's struggled off inflated marks over 90 and has beaten just 2 horses in pretty big fields combined in its last 4 runs. It may revive at some point but at the moment it's just impossible to invest in it in anY degree of confidence. Having said that given connections nothing would be a surprise.

 

I just discarded LA RAV at the final stage at big odds, it won on its 3rd run of last season which is a positive omen today, it finishes well over 7 furlongs and the step up in trip is logical, its had excuses in last 2 runs and should now be 100% fit and off a mark of 78 could arrive down the middle of the track late and outrun Odds, for an 8 year old it is relatively lightly raced and not easily discounted. He'll be my reserve and I'll have a small exchange win and place on it as a side bet.  

 

GARDEN OASIS looks well handicapped again for Tim Easterby after a quiet spell, in won 4 times last year off marks from 80 to 85, including a Course win at a mile, it struggled off marks over 90, has dropped back to 86 and was unlucky in running here last time. I'll be looking for a place run at the very least.

 

POETS DRAWN is another Tim Easterby runner who is also slipping to a nice mark. Another who has excuses on last 2 runs, denied a run last time and slipped on the bend at Beverley, where it's a bit of a Course expert, the time before. It's easy to forget but easy to look back at that this horse was competitive off marks in the mid 80's in Class 3 races a year ago and just too good to ignore off a mark of 68 here if retaining even 80% of that ability, which I genuinely believe it does.

 

ENIGMATIC is another older horse who was running well in far stronger events just a year ago, winning a Class 2 race off 86 last summer and having had 3 runs this year it really should be hammering at the proverbial barn door today off a mark of 85 in a Class 4 race.

 

I'll side with proven form in the not too distant past.

 

 

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