There is racing today at Brighton, Catterick ; Leicester and Newcastle (AW); a glut of 2 year old races and a lot of the handicaps
stuffed full of potentially progressive 3 year olds but whose form cannot really accurately be assessed without a degree of guesswork.
That is the nature of the time of year and unless you have substantive proof about the progression of younger horses in to handicap
company, it is best I believe; to tread with extreme caution. We have looked a quite a few races today but can find nothing with the
necessary confidence to select, that does not mean though that there is not value to be had.
We have 4 horses jumping off the tracker, and a fifth to note; so I am going to suggest a small "fun bet" today, it will carry a
minimal risk of around £6,00, but if it came off could deliver a thumping profit and should at the very least generate a bit of fun.
I am suggesting no more than 10p each way stakes on the following Lucky 15 bet, with explanations included.
Catterick 3.05 2 La Baccoutheuse - well below last win mark; trainer specialises in this type of horse/race and should get
the fast pace it needs to be competitive off, we saw yesterday how too fast an early pace can throw a race open to horses
with proven stamina and on that basis the available 10/1 looks good each way value.
Catterick 4.40 5 Modernism - with the exception of Donjuan Triumphant (admittedly a much better horse in better races) this
horse has been on my tracker longer than any this season, and we saw with DT last week how patience can pay off. They
have repeatedly pulled this one all summer when ground is not right, it is today, the mark looks favourable and the stable is
having winners with great regularity, and let us not forget, the only current Trainer to have had a winner at every Flat/NH/AW
venue currently on the racing calendar, and the booking of De Souza catches the eye, and may well catch eye of punters
too later on so take the current price of 7/1 if you can
Newcastle 7.30 14 First Bombardment - this horse is much better than recent form suggests, it could be totally gone;
but you have to give it a chance off this mark at a price of around 11/1 with Ladbrokes / Coral / Sky going odds to 4th;
the rail draw can also be a big asset over the minimum trip here.
Newcastle 8.00 13 Duke Cosimo, similarly highly draw, nice mark and very interesting that they step this hold up horse
down to 5 furlongs for the first time. The rail will allow a good position but they will know they need to make a decent break
and I have a hunch (no more) that once they have a position, rather than pull and hold it up like they usually do; they will
let the horse bowl along, if it does, it has the proven stamina and enough tactical speed to say "come and catch me"!
The other one in the tracker from a run last week is Keanes Point in the 5.30 at Leicester, it missed the break and ran
on well at Bath last time but today's race looks tougher on paper, it has a small chance as it is lightly raced recently but
on balance I can't help but think they are just popping up the A5/M69 here for a small quiet run to get to peak fitness.