York Wednesday 17th May

Good Morning

York

2.20 12 Cosmeapolitan - each way @ 16/1 / 16 Innocent Touch - each way @ 20/1

(Sky odds to 6th / Lads/Coral odds to 5th) - Placespotter tip

2.55 18 Udontdodou - each way @ 7/1; 4 Muntadab - each way @ 7/1

17 George Bowen - each way @ 14/1 - Elite tip

(Lads/Coral; SkyBet - odds to 5th)

5.35 8 Mukhayyam - each way @ 12/1 (all Bookies odds to 4th) - Placespotter tip

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We start 3 excellent days of racing at York today and the rain has certainly arrived and Going likely to start

as Good to Soft and probably go to Soft at some point. York is head and shoulders in my humble opinion the

best Race Course in the UK; excellent facilities, warm and welcoming people, absolutely no toffs and a cracking

track, which despite the constant protests of some so-called experts like Graham Cunningham; is both fair

and also usually in outstanding condition. He (Cunningham) has sometimes griped about "draw bias" ; I see

a draw bias as an aid to any punter, so why he would moan about it I don't know, and on soft Going it can

switch quite quickly anyway - hopefully 3 great days of racing irrespective of the weather.

We will again combine Elite / Placespotter - same tipster in reality one service focusses on Saturday

and big Festival meetings; the other on big daily Handicaps and seems logical to combine the logic

at these better midweek meetings. We started Chester with an excellent 1-2 and were rarely out

of the places all week and Elite, which keeps hitting the crossbar with places to enhanced odds is

due a big winner or two, purely on the law of the averages of some consistent success since launch.

Here is the logic for today-:

2.20 -: the "trends" experts will tell you that this race is destined for a progressive, unexposed 4 year old;

their claims are backed up by recent results but I have always had something of a "contrarian" approach

to tipping, looking for hidden value and nuggets of form and I think the conditions today will play against

the trend. This is Yorkshire; driving rain, a chill in the air and softening ground, you want something

in my opinion a little more battle hardened, exposed and tough and in INNOCENT TOUCH and

COSMEAPOLITAN we have 2 selections who tick the right boxes for this approach.

INNOCENT TOUCH is race fit; pops up off this kind of mark in these handicaps for fun, has won on

soft and has proven stamina for and beyond the trip, the fact it is trained by Richard Fahey and this

is home territory, is icing on the cake. COSMEAPOLITAN is trained by Alan King; usually associated

with National Hunt; he has an excellent strike rate with a small string of Flat horses and he and the

horse will be at home in these conditions. again it ticks all of the boxes. I expect Qassem; Awake My

Soul and possibly Master Carpenter to run well but happy with 2 big priced horses here.

2.55 - the draw can be a factor here but I will not factor it in until we see any actual firm evidence,

on soft I have anecdotal evidence that high comes in to play far more and have therefore included

horses drawn low, middle to high and high. I was close to Ninjango and Lincoln who have soft

Going form but I don't think either are quite good enough in this class of field. UDONTDODOU

and MUNTADAB head the market but, 7/1 is excellent value for both with enhanced odds to 5th

place and both have won on soft, have stamina for a bit further and should run very well.

The one at a bigger price I like a lot is GEORGE BOWEN; he has let me down a few times but

the talent is there, the trainer is adamant he is going to click soon, they try new headgear today

and he has form on yielding and soft Going and one day it will click and he will win one of these.

Finally to the 5.35, slightly lower Class, Class 4 but competitive nonetheless, Chancery is a horse

from a big yard who can "go in" at any time but many have been thinking that for the past dozen

plus runs and he just seems regressive now; Marmajuke Bay has won on soft, holds and excellent

chance but I'm just put off by the weight and he would be a second pick in you want 2 in this race

my idea of a winner is MUKHAYYAM from Tim Easterby yard, had 2 runs and TE horses tend

to start to fire from mid May; so fit now; won on Good to Soft and nice handicap mark at nice price.

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Those are the selections for today; lots of value but value is only value when they win or place;

so we will be hoping for a nice start and plenty of pointers for the next few days.