Placespotter - Carlisle 3.55 9 Settledoutofcourt - 1/2 point each way at 16/1
I think there is going to be a lot of pace in the Carlisle race and the Going looks
sure to be soft, bordering heavy in places. The conundrum is how fit some of these
are and as always in this type of race I look at previous autumn and first time
out form, ability to see out the trip (this is a very tough track); ability on the Going;
and also the current form of the Trainer and any trends as to when their horses
are most likely to win. With a race like this there are no other options but to study
the form book and that's what I have done, and will do all winter.
The undoubted pace angles will come from Basford Ben and Benzel, BB has an
excellent track record and if fit enough will take all the beating BUT his record
first time out is not great. Benzel could be anything but has to prove stamina
for the trip, which will be a slog and equally another nice prospect Ballyben might
find this a bit too soft. It is a case of finding the one most suited and likely to run
a big race on the day and my pick is SETTLEDOUTOFCOURT.
A Course and Distance winner, a proven stayer with undoubted stamina;
has a decent record first time up and although the yard are slow starters they
have had a recent 14/1 winner with a Chaser first time out. A low weight does
not hide a very competitive handicap mark and if the front ones go off too hard
and "blow up" at the bottom of the hill, this one is more likely than most to
stay on up the hill at a very nice each way price but I do suggest 50% stakes.