Ascot 3.40
Ascot 3.40 Victoria Cup - Heritage Handicap - Class 2 - 7 furlongs - 27 run - SOFT (lots of rain)
A big field handicap that is run over the straight 7 furlongs at Ascot and, this year, given the weather forecast, there is every chance it will be run in soft ground.
It is a stiff track so, with the prevailing conditions, we are going to need a horse who truly gets the 7 furlong trip and, even, beyond. In recent years it has been won by a progressive and well-handicapped horse and 4 and 5 year olds have had a good record. There are 29 currently declared to go to post, which makes finding the winner tricky, but there are plenty of enhanced places on offer and the betting is wide open at the time of writing.
The draw can often play a big part in these big ‘Heritage’ handicaps run up the straight track at Ascot and, in recent times, there does seem to have been a pronounced bias in favour of horses drawn middle-to-high and this feature has been a factor in my thinking when trying to come up with a manageable short-list from such a big field.
The horse that currently sits at the head of the market is ACQUITTED and he, of course, was originally due to run in last week’s Thirsk Hunt Cup before being withdrawn on account of the unsuitably quick ground. No such going worries this week with his only win, to date, on turf coming in heavy ground in October 2019 when he beat the likes of, now 122-rated, Mishriff whilst conceding 6lbs. He is a lightly-raced 4 year old, who has only gone up 1lb for an encouraging seasonal bow in The Spring Mile at Doncaster, when 2nd behind a horse who has won again since, but he needs to follow up his debut this year in a much better fashion than he did last season. His first run after the Spring lockdown saw him finish a very creditable 2nd to Palace Pier but he, then, failed to beat home another horse in two subsequent runs and was gelded before being put away for the winter. He has never raced at a trip less than a mile but he is a strong traveller and this is one of the stiffest 7 furlongs in the country so it should be within his compass.
The weights are headed by MOTAKHAYYEL. This 5 year-old won over this course-and-distance last June when taking The Buckingham Palace Handicap at the Royal meeting and he, then, followed up at Newmarket off 7lbs higher. He went up another 7lbs for that and, although now back down by 1lb, he faces a stiff task here. He was gelded over the winter and returned with an encouraging run at Thirsk last month but the trainer has expressed concerns in the past about soft ground and he probably won’t want too much rain.
MOTAKHAYYEL has to give at least 7lbs to the rest of the field and the horse next in at the weights is RAISING SAND. Unlike the top weight, this 9 year-old will relish every single drop of rain that falls pre-race. He is a horse who loves this straight Ascot track and has won 3 times in the past here. He finished 4th in the last renewal of this, in 2019, and, although officially 1lb higher here, his claiming jockey takes off 7lbs meaning he is, effectively, 6lbs lower. With conditions likely to suit and a decent-looking high draw he is one to take seriously and has to be on the short-list here.
Another horse who has run at Ascot many times is ESCOBAR. He has not won since October 2019 but that was at this venue when winning The Balmoral Handicap. That was over a mile and he does seem better over that trip but he is versatile ground-wise and, if the rain does get into the ground in a significant way, his stamina could be an asset. He is used to the hurly-burly of these big field contests and is drawn high whilst both his trainer and jockey are in good form so far this season.
The winning trainer in 2019 was Roger Varian. This is not a race that he’s traditionally targeted but he runs JUMAIRA BAY this time. This 4 year-old has just the one win to his name and that came in a class 5 maiden at Chepstow so this is the stiffest task he has faced yet. He does, however, have low mileage on the clock and could still improve this year, having been gelded over the winter, and warrants respect given connections. Digging deeper into some of his form does show that he may be capable of better. For example, he was beaten just a length by the now 101-rated Nugget on seasonal debut last year, getting just 2lbs, whilst he was beaten just a short head by Brunch, who is also rated 101 and finished 2nd in The Lincoln, in receipt of just 1lb. Those two pieces of form, alone, could indicate that his mark of 89 here under-estimates his ability.
5 of these ran in The Balmoral Handicap here on Champions Day in October and the horse who fared best of those on that occasion was GREENSIDE. He is a 10 year-old now but has had relatively little racing for one of that age. He was pretty consistent last season and, arguably, ran as well as ever. He won over this trip, in soft ground, at Haydock and that was his last run over this distance. He has, in fact, only run over 7 furlongs on 3 occasions, finishing 1st, 2nd and 7th , and spent much of his career running over a mile. The stiff nature of the track should play to his strengths but he has just needed his first run in the last few seasons.
Another to run in The Balmoral was ROPEY GUEST. Widely regarded as the best maiden in training in the UK until his success at Chelmsford at the end of August, he has kept better company than this in many of his races in his career so far and has finished placed in 4 group races. He has shown he handles the track with creditable runs in 2 big-field contests at the last two Royal meetings whilst he also has form in deep ground and was just touched off in heavy ground in the Horris Hill at Newmarket in 2019. His mark does look a little on the high side but he has been dropped 5lbs since his 11th place finish last October. The 7 furlong trip on soft ground looks his ideal scenario and, whilst I’m not sure he’s up to winning this, it would not surprise me to see him run into one of the places at a nice price given his high draw.
Finishing 8th in The Balmoral was SYMBOLIZE who runs here for the in-form yard of Andrew Balding. He is a horse who has run well in soft ground contests at this track before and finished 3rd in The Jersey Stakes at the Royal meeting last June. He finished ahead of a couple of today’s opponents for the first time out this season, at Newmarket, and should strip fitter here for that run. He didn’t get the clearest of runs that day but was well beaten by the smart-looking winner and was possibly found out by a much better handicapped rival. Nudged up by 1lb for that, the same fate may await here for all that he is one to consider for the places.
Way down the field in The Balmoral was RIVER NYMPH. He was progressive last season up until that October contest and had only finished out of the first 3 once in his 7 race career to that point. He, possibly, found the mile stretching him that day and the same was probably the case when he ran in The Lincoln at the end of March, although he was possibly not done any favours by the draw that day and his jockey had to make a lot of use of him to get with the main pack. His two wins last season came at this 7f trip, including one here, whilst his win at Newbury came in soft ground and the form of that contest has been boosted a number of times since. He is 10lbs higher than for that win but his trainer, Clive Cox, does have a good record at this course whilst Adam Kirby rides this straight track extremely well.
The potential pace angle in the race could be SUNSET BREEZE, who is drawn highest of all near the stands rail, and he has form that ties in with the conqueror of SYMBOLIZE last time at Newmarket. He finished just a neck behind Double Or Bubble (who could well frank the form earlier in the afternoon in a group 3 at Lingfield), conceding 2lbs, when they met over this course-and-distance last September and followed that up with another excellent 2nd place finish at Doncaster. He ran up a quick hat-trick in the early weeks of last season, so can go well after a break, but they all came over 6 furlongs. He looks to be a speedy type but will have his stamina tested here. However, if getting the lead and bagging the prime spot on the rail, he could run a big race and he has been well backed during the course of Friday.
Whilst SUNSET BREEZE is one of the more likely horses to go forward, one who likes to be held up and needs to be produced late is CHIEFOFCHIEFS. He certainly has the ideal jockey on board for that kind of racing style, in Jamie Spencer, but will need more luck than he got last time out when running in the listed Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster. He finished just behind, fellow hold-up horse, Summerghand there and that horse has franked the form by winning two big races since, including a Group 3, and is now rated 110 whereas Charlie Fellowes’ charge runs here off 99. He has been campaigned mainly at a mile plus for most of his career but came back in distance at the start of last year and his optimum trip now looks to be at 6 or 7 furlongs. He will want them to go hard up front and is likely to be finishing fast and late here but it will be in the lap of gods as to whether he gets the gaps at the right time.
Ralph Beckett has a really good record with horses switched to him from other yards and FOX CHAMPION made an encouraging start for his new stable on seasonal debut at Haydock. He had a couple of today’s opponents in behind when finishing 3rd on what was, also, his first start since being gelded. He runs off the same mark here and, on old form could be well handicapped, but I think the ground could be a concern here. In 4 attempts on ground softer than good he has hardly beaten a horse home and that does not augur well for his chances here.
Richard Fahey has two entered in this. The first is ZIP and this 5 year-old looks set to have his ideal conditions here. He has run over 7 furlongs in soft ground on 6 occasions and won twice whilst placing on each of the other 4 occasions. He won his last start as a 4 year-old and, again, on his first start as a 5 year-old this season when winning at Newcastle at the end of last month. The 4lb rise in the ratings, as a result of that win, was enough to see him get into this handicap but it is more than negated by the 5lb claim of Laura Pearson who is very much in demand by many trainers for races such as this. The horse has had quite a lot of racing already for one of his age but looks to be improving. He will need to improve again on what he has achieved so far but, especially with the jockey’s claim, has very little weight here and does not look to be badly drawn.
In contrast, Fahey’s other runner, FULL AUTHORITY, is quite lightly raced and makes his stable debut here having switched from Michael Stoute. His only win on turf came in soft going but that was over 5 furlongs and he has never raced beyond 6 furlongs so this is a step into the unknown.
Closely matched with ZIP on the form of their meeting at Beverley last August is HARRISON POINT. The pair were separated by just ½ length that day, with HARRISON POINT winning, and they meet on the same terms here. Archie Watson’s 4 year-old ran well for a long way in last season’s Brittania at Royal Ascot but didn’t seem to stay the mile and has been campaigned at 7 furlongs ever since. He showed that he handled the track that day and Hollie Doyle has been on board for all 4 of his wins. He is another who was gelded over the winter and, after finishing last on seasonal debut at the Lingfield all-weather finals day, ran an encouraging race last time at Wolverhampton. This demands more but he warrants respect.
When MOTAKHAYYEL won The Buckingham Palace Handicap last June, the horse who finished 2nd was JACK’S POINT. He re-opposes here and is some 12lbs better off having been beaten by just over a length and runs for the first time for new trainer Tom Clover. The booking of Andrea Atzeni is interesting, given that Roger Varian has a runner, but the horse did run poorly on his only start on soft ground so a lot of rain may not be ideal.
That run in soft conditions came at Goodwood last August and it was in a race won by COLD STARE who is a horse who definitely thrives in the mud and his connections will be doing a rain dance between now and the time they go to post. The ground really does seem to be key to this horse and all 3 of his wins for David O’Meara have come on testing going. He has been running on unsuitable quick ground so far this season but he is now back down to his last winning mark and should get conditions to suit here. He ran well here in October 2019 under similar conditions but the draw may not be ideal this time around.
Of others that were, initially, of some interest, as I intimated last week, I’m still of the belief that ON A SESSION, who ran in The Thirsk Hunt Cup, needs to prove himself over this trip (especially on this stiff track and in the likely ground conditions) whilst the ground is the big unknown for KARIBANA who looks highly progressive otherwise having recorded some good form last season.
Underfoot conditions and the draw could be the two key factors here and, writing this on Friday evening, in a bid to reduce the 29-strong field to a more manageable short-list, I’m banking on (a) the weather forecast being correct and (b) the trend towards the draw favouring those middle-to-high in this race continuing. Even utilising these two factors, I was still left with a short-list slightly longer than ideal and I have reluctantly discarded GREENSIDE, CHIEFOFCHIEFS, SYMBOLIZE and RAISING SAND.
This leaves me with 4 recommended picks and all look to be the progressive type that has done well in this contest in recent years.
Firstly, ACQUITTED looks a solid each-way proposition if building on his promising seasonal debut. He’s a smooth traveller who shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by the drop back to 7 furlongs on this track, having only been headed in the dying stages in both the Doncaster run and last season when beaten by Palace Pier. He looks handicapped to win a good race and has a nice draw in stall 20. He rates as the main tip.
RIVER NYMPH should enjoy softer conditions and the drop back to this trip and, again, has a draw from which he should get a nice tow into the race whilst JUMAIRA BAY, although drawn in the lower half of the field, could be well enough ahead of his mark to enable any draw disadvantage to be overcome. His trainer is excellent at improving horses as they move onto 4 years of age and a gelding operation could be beneficial too, whist the 3lb claim of the jockey could well be the icing on the cake.
Finally, talking of a jockey’s claim, the 5lbs that Laura Pearson is able to take off the back of ZIP means that he runs here off a feather weight and negates the penalty he picked up for winning on seasonal debut. This pick is a little more speculative than the others, and the horse does need to improve again, but he is likely to have the ground in his favour and has form over the trip.