Newmarket 3.15
Newmarket 3.15 - Class 2 - Handicap - 6 furlongs - 16 run - Good - Showers
With field sizes for some contests a little smaller than maybe anticipated, the most competitive betting heat of the day is this 16-runner 3 year-old handicap run over 6 furlongs. The going is currently described as ‘good to soft’ and, with showers forecast for much of Saturday, it may ease further by the time this race is off.
We have seen a notable draw bias on The Rowley Mile in the early weeks of this season and, looking back at previous renewals of this race, history suggests that a low draw may be advantageous here.
Of those who line up here, only one horse, MR TRICK, has not yet paid a visit to the winner’s enclosure in their career so far. Richard Hannon’s charge is one of the possible pace angles here but has only dropped down to this trip on his last two starts having begun his career running over 7 furlongs. He looks to be well drawn and does have experience at this track, having come 3rd here last autumn in a race that had the form franked by the winner at York this week, and did run creditably on seasonal debut but, even though his very capable claiming jockey takes off a handy 3lbs, he looks to face a stiff task here.
The market is currently headed by JUMBY. He is another who started off running his first few races over 7 furlongs and he looked a little unfortunate on his first try over this trip, last time at this course, when not getting a clear run before it was too late when finishing 3rd to Creative Force at The Craven meeting. The winner has franked the form by winning since whilst the 5th horse home also won next time out in a group 3 at Ascot. His overall form stacks up well and, with him running off the same mark here and his eye-catching run last time, it is easy to see why he has been made favourite here. Whilst he is clearly a big player, his current odds offer very limited value for a horse yet to win over the trip, and I would rather look elsewhere for some each-way value.
The weights are headed by JUST FRANK and, with 7 runs under his belt so far, he is one of the more experienced in the field. He is the only course-and-distance winner in here, having won a 27-runner contest in soft ground last October and there have been 6 winners come out of that contest subsequently. He ran creditably next time, finishing 2nd in a listed contest at Doncaster, but has been, on the face of it, a little disappointing in both starts so far this term. The first of those runs, back at Doncaster in The Cammidge Trophy, saw him face a stiff task against the likes of experienced campaigners Summerghand, Mr Lupton and Brando but he was far from disgraced in my eyes. He went very hard from the front that day, possibly doing too much, and that may have been in the mind of connections last weekend when he raced over 7 furlongs at Ascot. He was held up on that occasion but was ran far too freely and didn’t really get home over the longer trip. He is a horse who takes a keen hold and I think connections may go back to the tried and tested formula of letting him run prominently. He is down 2lbs from the Ascot run and his jockey also takes off 7lbs. He clearly acts with plenty of give in the ground so further rain may well help his chances.
Back in 3rd place on the day that JUST FRANK won here in October was PEROTTO. Trained by Marcus Tregoning, this horse has been very consistent in his career so far with 2 wins and 5 places from his 8 runs. He is 1lb better off with JUST FRANK here, when taking into account the respective jockey claims, but has nearly 5 lengths to find. On the form of his reappearance 2nd behind Creative Force, earlier this month, he has form that ties in with JUMBY and a line through that winner means that he has it all to do to finish in front of Eve Johnson Houghton’s charge. In mitigation, however, he did rear at the start last time and was always playing catch-up and he does warrant respect here on what he has produced so far.
Just behind PEROTTO last time, in 3rd, was BICKERSTAFFE. That was his 2nd outing of the season and prior to that he had won at Pontefract in early April. This horse is still relatively unexposed having only run 4 times in his life and not having made his racecourse bow until September last year. Having won on debut, he was quickly moved into listed company when running behind Winter Power at Ayr a couple of weeks later. Those two runs came over 5 furlongs but he looked to need every yard of the 6 furlongs when just getting home at Pontefract and is probably best suited by this trip. Adam Kirby is an interesting jockey booking and the horse remains on the same mark as for his last outing.
REBEL AT DAWN is a stable-mate of BICKERSTAFFE and finished one place ahead of him in that race behind Winter Power at Ayr last season. He has raced 11 times already, winning just the once, and has been kept mainly to the minimum distance of 5 furlongs. He was gelded over the winter and ran encouragingly on seasonal reappearance, under this jockey, before having his limitations exposed last time at Thirsk.
An interesting contender here is SEVEN BROTHERS. He is another who was gelded at the end of last season and he returned to win at Doncaster last month to make it 3 wins from just 4 starts so far. His only defeat came in a group 2 at York’s Ebor meeting and his sights are certainly lower here. The horse he got the better of at Doncaster is the same horse that finished 2nd to BICKERSTAFFE at Pontefract and, on that form, the two horses are very closely matched. The trainer has started the season well and with the yard running a few at their local track, Thirsk, it is interesting that the main stable jockey travels here to take this ride. One for the shortlist.
Finishing behind SEVEN BROTHERS last time out, in 6th place, was Richard Fahey’s runner here SHARK TWO ONE. Given some of his juvenile form, that was a disappointing result, on the face of it, but he possibly found the ground too quick that day and should prefer the easier ground here. He won twice last season with one of those wins coming in a valuable race at The Curragh. He was hit by a large rise in the ratings after that but it didn’t stop him performing with credit in Redcar’s competitive 2 year-old Trophy or winning back at that track a couple of weeks later. He has been eased slightly in the handicap but is still held, strictly on the book, by JUST FRANK from their meeting at Doncaster in October and, of course, by SEVEN BROTHERS. He should strip fitter for seasonal debut, however, and, with the ground being more suitable, he could run a good race at decent each-way odds.
A horse that saw some support in the market during Friday is FIRST FOLIO. This French recruit won quite impressively on British debut when winning at Yarmouth last month but has been hit by an 11lb hike in the ratings as a result. The horse he beat there was well beaten by SHARK TWO ONE in the race at The Curragh and the ground here will be slower than the surface he won on at Yarmouth.
Trainer Tim Easterby has had a very good week up at York and he runs the hat-trick seeking BARNEY’S BAY here. His form has improved this season following a gelding operation and a drop back to this trip with his second consecutive win coming just a week ago at Thirsk. He has been raised by 9lbs for that win and, up in class, faces a tougher task here.
With the defection of Operatic on Friday, the horse drawn lowest here is DESERT GULF and he makes his debut on turf here having raced exclusively on the tapeta surfaces of Wolverhampton and Newcastle in his 3 races so far. He is a horse who will need a strong gallop to aim at but it is worth noting that he was declared a non-runner just a week ago at Ascot due to concerns over the ground and any further rain here may result in a similar outcome.
Drawn on completely the opposite side to DESERT GULF in the highest stall of all is JADWAL. He has finished 2nd on both starts this season and they came on the all-weather. He is, as yet, unproven on going any easier than Good so that has to be a question mark and, although he did win on the neighbouring July course last July, he is un-raced at this track too. He can pull very hard in his race, so is another who will need a strong pace here, but he is representing powerful connections and has a nice low weight. The fact that one of the owners’ retained jockeys takes another ride in the race should be ignored as the weight being carried is below what he is normally able to ride at and, in Cieren Fallon, they have a more than able deputy.
FANTASY MASTER is stepping back up to this distance after running over 5 furlongs on all of his previous runs on turf. His only attempts at this trip came on the all-weather and he was well beaten in both. He was a little unlucky on his seasonal bow at Sandown, when 2nd, after Hollie Doyle dropped her whip and he lost a shoe, but the winner did nothing to enhance the form next time and he needs to step up here.
The bottom one on the card, and joint-bottom weight, is SMEATON’S LIGHT who runs for Mick Channon. He’s very unexposed, having raced just the 3 times, and showed improvement when winning first time up this season at Thirsk late last month. This is a lot tougher but he has been well supported in the market during Friday.
All in all, this is a tricky little race to get a good handle on with several horses having disappointed in recent runs and some clearly with a good deal of improvement to come.
It seems that everybody has latched onto JUMBY, given his last run, and there is a strong possibility he delivers the goods, with the excellent William Buick now on board after the traffic problems last time. I wouldn’t put anybody off a win ‘saver’ bet but, with the enhanced places on offer, I would, personally, rather look for some each-way value.
My main tip is JUST FRANK who is the only course-and-distance winner in here and, with the stalls moved back to the centre of the course, he could be well drawn to race more prominently than last time on fresher ground. The drop back to this trip also looks the right move, given how keenly he races, and his claiming jockey takes off a handy 7lbs. He looks good each-way value and won’t mind if they get plenty of rain.
At a bigger price, SHARK TWO ONE, could run well on this easier ground. Although Richard Fahey claims he is still too high in the handicap, a mark of 93 may under-estimate his ability judged on some of his form from last season and this is the only runner on the card for a trainer who has won this race twice in the past. Jockey Franny Norton has a 40% place strike-rate when riding for this yard in the last year and is a good booking.
For a second tracker selection, I was torn between BICKERSTAFFE and SEVEN BROTHERS but, in the end, I just came down on the side of Kevin Ryan’s horse. He has won 3 of his 4 races and showed a good attitude last time to win at Doncaster. Although that was on fast ground, he does have winning form in soft too and he is, clearly, one who could soon be well ahead of this mark. If any of the selections do not run then BICKERSTAFFE would be the reserve to replace them.
TIP: JUST FRANK. TRACKERS: Shark Two One/ Seven Brothers
Reserve: Bickerstaffe