SEAN / ROBIN - County Hurdle - Handicap - Class 1 - 2 miles 1 furlong - Officially Soft - possibly Heavy in places

 

There are 22 here and an absolute minefield that we'll try to navigate.

 

L'Eau Du Sud is a strong market favourite given the yards form and despite a recent win it was Pulled Up here in November at a time when some in the yard (including Langer Dan) weren't firing on all cylinders. Let's cover him off with a SMALL WIN BET.

 

King Of Kingsfield is also being well backed but we don't think it's particularly great value, Absurde has undoubted class but the rain has surely done its chances no good at all. Petite Tonnere ran well in this last year and has been Chasing, he's in the Tracker but overlooked here.

 

There are a few at massive prices who could find these optimum conditions and it does have the feel of a race where some big priced horses may place so we suggest a £1 e/w fun bet on MEDIA NARANJA @ 100/1  for Elliott who had a Course sighter last April and one noted in Ireland staying on in a race over a furlong further in heavy Going. BY YOUR SIDE @ 50/1  is another who has shown glimmers of form in heavy conditions and at shorter but still very generous Odds MR FREEDOM @ 33/1  was an eye catcher in last years Fred Winter and has all sorts of niggles since but well handicapped as a result.

 

For the top 6 selections we suggest the following in preference order-

 

MAGICAL ZOE was runner up in the Fred Winter last year but seems a bit overlooked here, conditions will suit and we know the Yard just love to upset the Mullins + Elliott applecart. BIALYSHOK looked to be going very well when Bought Down last time, Danny Mullins has a knack of winning on stable second / third strings and this one looks over-priced. FALVOIR is one off our initial Ante Post list and ran an absolute cracker in the Imperial Cup last Saturday, that really is my only niggle as to whether it may just have taken the edge off, but with the form of the Yard you cannot ignore all the other pointers and another one we've advocated for a while.

 

For some shrapnel each way, we like SO SCOTTISH who is being widely touted by some shrewd judges and a close examination of the form reads very well, RISK BELLE was 3rd in the Fred Winter last year and has the benefit of proven stamina over further and is another mUllins runner who looks over-priced and finally HANSARD may be a Gary Moore runner that does like Cheltenham and can deliver outside of the M25, he has solid form in soft conditions and a lovely mar and racing weight.

 

Tips (1) Magical Zoe / (2) Bialyshok / (3) Falvoir / (4) So Scottish / (5) Risk Belle / (6) Hansard - see notes

 

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SPECULATOR / Sean - Cheltenham 5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 23 run - Soft

 

The traditional "get out" race when some are desperate for a big priced winner to save the week and others have long since headed to the car park desperate to "get out" before 10pm...

 

Waterford Whispers and Quai De Bourbon dominate the market for Elliott and Mullins but both may be vulnerable in the conditions and it'll almost be an ante-climax if market leaders win the last big handicap on the Card. We'll take both on with the suggestion that a small reverse forecast may be the sensible play.

 

Let's look for some real value though. 

 

Both STUZZKINI @ 66/1  and MEL MONROE @ 40/1  for the Elliott team are worth a £1 e/w fun bet at huge odds given they have form in the mud in lower grades and both have 3 mile form too, so if they aren't run off their feet early may be able to stay on past tired horses.

 

Oscastle Des Mottes is short in the market and upped in trip, Thanksforthehelp has become frustrating since being an unplaced favourite in the Pertems here last year, Jay Jay Reilly has one stand out win when tipped by us at 33/1 for the Skeltons in the Autumn but may prefer better ground, Hollow Games was runner up in this in 2022 before moving to Chasing and reverts back to Hurdles and can't be discounted.

 

Our chosen 6 though are as follows-

 

YEATS STAR looks an excellent each way price, very solid form and it will be disappointing if not bang in contention and placing at least. SONINGO may be a dark one too for the Nicholls team, he's ploughed through the mud over further at Chepstow and Aintree to suggest what he lacks in speed he more than makes up for with stamina and SEQUESTERED has a very interesting win in heavy ground at Galway on his cv, and despite some moderate form over further since, some clear evidence that this drop in trip may see a return to best form.

 

For the shrapnel, BETTER DAYS AHEAD has excellent collateral form but a small niggle is big field hustle and bustle experience and WHAT'S UP DARLING steps up in trip for Elliott but if you look far enough back was a 3 mile P2P winner. We couldn't find a 6th horse here with enough confidence so may be extend the £1 e/w and splash out £2 e/w on the 2 long priced fun pokes, or keep the stake dry (if you can) for an extra poke at The Midlands National tomorrow.

 

Tips (1) Yeats Star / (2) Soningo / (3) Sequestered / (4s) Better Days Ahead / (5s) What's Up Darling