The headlines in both the Trade and also National Press paints a pretty disturbing picture.

 

Irish domination

 

Overall Crowds down by 10%

 

Rowdy drunken behaviour and evidence of drug abuse

 

A flat and unusually quiet crowd and atmosphere

 

A lack of a great "public horse" that the nation could get involved with.

 

All of those issues deserve comment but there were surely some positives too. 

 

The fact that Willie Mullins reached 100 winners

 

The emergence of Dan Skelton and Ben Pauling on to the top table of UK Trainers

 

The greater spread behind Mullins amongst the Irish yards beyond Elliott whose yard did far less well than expected

 

Finally, the elephant in the room, what would have happened had Hendersons horses been fully healthy and fit.

 

So what about Irish domination?. When you have a phenomenon like Mullins it is easy to get over defensive. The fact is that his success attracts success, he gets the best young horses, he trains them to a higher intensity than others do early in their careers, he focuses on the big races and actually doesn't stack the yard with handicappers and older horses. In his vanguard you have talents like Henry De Bromhead, Gavin Cromwell and Paul Nolan, and the trends in Irish racing are changing too, away from the Harrington / Weld dynasties towards some of those mentioned. Of course Trainers can only train what they are sent to train and whilst Ireland has benefitted from 2 massive benefactors in JP McManus and Michael O'Leary, that cannot go on for ever and already signs that the Gigginstown bubble may be deflating if not yet bursting.  

 

The fundamental success though with Irish Racing lies not with horses, Trainers, Jockeys but with their ethos of  QUALITY over QUANTITY. Yes you still get dire quality races in Ireland in mid week , the difference is there are far fewer Meetings, far bigger fields and far more interesting and competitive Racing as a result. but don't for one minute think that Racing in Ireland is rosy and fine. There are serious debates there about the domination of the big few Yards in both codes.

 

The drop in crowds is a growing trend in many sports and and a fact that after a decade of decline, the disaster of Brexit, the impact of a global pandemic, the spaffing up of billions to fight wars in faraway lands, the sheer fabric of the country is broken and the majority of us, if we are being frankly honest, are existing. This means that disposable income is tight, tighter than it has been for around 40 years and the bubble of cheap and affordable credit at historically low rates that endured for around 15 years has now gone. The older ones amongst us will merely see this as a return to real life economics, the younger generation though see it as the end of what seemed like the norm. Sports and Leisure in general are seeing new younger income streams dry up due to a tighter economic picture, whilst the older generations are being more and more switched off by the culture and behaviours of the younger generation who to them seem only interested in going to Horse Racing to get drunk, to behave like football hooligans and to partake in various illegal substances. The concourses of Cheltenham have turned into more like The Den at MIllwall on a Saturday afternoon on one hand and the worst excesses of the 80's hooray henry's on the other. The Sport, like others, are seeing a  devastating pinc more of lack of interest from the younger generations and growing discontent from the core base. When a sport becomes the sideshow to getting drunk or high the end is nigh and a lot of this can be traced back to the emergence of horse racing on summer nights and weekends being a hors d'oeuvre for a Concert of some has-been, never has-been or tribute act to start an hour or so of inane drivel with copious amounts of cheap booze straight after the last race had finished.

 

The other increasingly evidential fact is that post Covid two things have happened (1) a significant number of people have decided big crowds and big events are not for them, aside from the economic cost but more fundamentally (2) once a habit is BROKEN, even if it is just for a year, it is VERY hard to get people back, interested and engaged as they break that habitual chain and find something else to do.

 

So whilst the drop in crowds, rowdy behaviour and flat atmosphere is a worry, it's something that is affecting almost every other Sporting and Leisure activity and as it becomes easier, cheaper and just as exciting to watch it in high definition dolby sound at home, it's a situation that will only deteriorate as costs to attend rise and reasons not too rise at a higher pace.

 

There are, in our opinion, positives to draw.

 

We should celebrate what Mullins has achieved and others can learn from his methods. We should celebrate the enduring ability of Nicholls to reinvent himself in a very similar way that Sir Alex was able to do at Manchester United, we should certainly celebrate not only the increasing influence of Skelton and Pauling and others but also their ability to produce horses at peak fitness on the day, we should certainly celebrate the fact that Horse Racing stands at the pinnacle of gender equality in Sport, where a lady competitor can compete head one with a male competitor and come out and win on merit and equal terms, both in terms of riding and training, and we should also celebrate the fact that at times of adversity, the sport can rally round like no other and offer genuine support when needed.

 

What of Henderson, what of Constitution Hill, Jonbon , Shiskin, were they actually missed?, would they have won their races?, will they return this season, or be as strong as they might have been when a year older next year. I have to say, and it's well documented that I didn't miss the hype, the ongoing soap opera that the yard orchestrates and I certainly never miss horses winning 4-5 runner races by half a mile and the then pointless TV drivel that surrounds it. I suspect that Constitution Hill may have won, I doubt the other two would and the handicaps will always find winners and losers to backfill any missing horses, that is their nature and reason to exist.

 

My closing thoughts, yes the Sport is in a degree of crisis, no I don;t think there are any magic bullets, the Irish domination looks set to continue but there are seeds of exciting and far deeper numbers amongst the mainland UK training ranks but above all, where is the biggest missing magical ingredient that could reopen and re-energise the Sport. 

 

Where is the DESERT ORCHID, the RED RUM, the DAWN RUN type, the horse with a story, a personality at its helm, the attachment that draws in not only Racing enthusiasts but the vast majority who know nothing about Horse Racing but who are captivated by the sheer brio and bravery of the singularly most important component in our sport, these are generational Equine SUPERSTARS and as much as you can argue that Constitution Hill, Galopin Des Champs etc are great horses, frankly of the richter scale of the all round package, they simply don't register.....and what the Sport needs, both Flat and National Hunt is that new generational hero or heroine!

 

Tomorrow we will have a long hard look at the Cheltenham Handicaps from an SP2A punting perspective and on Thursday a look at the non handicaps, on Friday a look ahead to the remainder of 2024 and beyond

 

----