As we outlined yesterday we will focus on the two Handicaps today, The Ultima Chase at 2.50 and The Fred Winter (aka Boodles) Novice Handicap Hurdle at 4.50. A pair of very contrasting races.

 

We will also give our suggested 1-2-3 in the other races, non handicaps and in the case of the final race at 5.30, our 1-2 as it has attracted a field of less than 8 runners. IF you want a placepot perm of 2 runners in the first 6 races on the Card the first 2 named are the selections.

 

The plan through the week is to cover the suggested best in Ireland and the best of the UK contingent. I have to say here and now, it is very hard to see a Home (UK) winner today based on the markets and actual form, perhaps Apple Away for Lucinda Russell in the final race?. The Ultima at 2.50 used to be very much a Home Banker, yet this season the Irish come mob handed and really the home team look dependent on a couple from the KIm Bailey yard on our analysis. It's also staggering to note when you look at the Fred Winter (Boodles) race at 4.50 that according to the Racing Post, that Willie Mullins has yet to win the race?...surely not but it's hard to see it not changing today.

 

In the Handicaps we will go to 6 places today, because that's where the "enhanced places" take us and we'll suggest a split of 3 x 1/2 point e/w and 3 x shrapnel e/w in those races so a stake of 4 and 1/2  points in each. In the other races we'll stake them as notional 1/2 point e/w bets. For those that like to have something to cheer on at BIG odds, you'll see the favourite for some £1 e/w to enhance place selections in the first 6 races on the Card - looking for the outsider who might fly up the hill.

 

Here is the analysis for the 2 main TIP Races-:

 

SPECULATOR / SEAN - 2.50 Ultima Chase - Class 1 - 3 miles 1 furlong - Soft (Old Course) - 23 run

 

I think it will be genuinely soft today but dry up from this point onwards. No excuses for most here apart from a couple who would prefer Good to Soft.

 

Sean and I have between us looked at the challengers and shared notes and I do feel that unusually for the race it really could go to Ireland this time and that would buck a long term trend. This looks market dominated.

 

Let's start with a couple at big prices for the suggested £1 each way and our selections would be Lord Du Mesnil @ 25/1  who may be a grade below this but is a very solid and dependable stayer who could stay on up the hill to finish in the enhanced places and Risk And Roll  @ 66/1 who has a decent Course record and who may just be a similar type. We did look at and discard Chambard who was impressive in one race before Christmas at Aintree and Run Wild Fred, who is one of those enigmatic Elliott types.

 

The likes of Twig for the in form Pauling yard and with Course figures of 2-2-2 deserves a mention and was only left out due to the fact we really do feel this one needs better than Soft Going to be at his best. Eldorado Allen off top weight could run a big race if it could recapture the form of a few years ago, We'veallbeencaught and Vittorino were the other pair that would be "frustrating" winners for us and not without a chance. 

 

With a democratic 3-3 split though we've come up with what we think are the top 6 and in order of overall preference.

 

THE GOFFER was 4th in this last year and what frankly looks on paper a far stronger renewal. We've earmarked it since on the Irish Trackers and the form hasn't unduly concerned either of us as we feel it's tried to save a mark. Some are concerned about genuine stamina but we feel it simply got to the front too early last year and will be ridden more conservatively this time and be produced between the final 2 flights.

 

TRELAWNE may be notionally the KIm Bailey second string and has a preference for going Right handed but we feel has the engine and profile for this and will enjoy the conditions of the race stepped up in trip

 

MEETINGOFWATERS gets a 15lbs penalty for running away with the Paddy Power chase in Ireland over Christmas. A fall at the first on its most recent run doesn't temper enthusiasm, it'll need to jump as well here as it did in the Paddy Power and this is an acid test  as to whether this horse will be a very good handicapper or something infinitely better, we simply have no idea where the ceiling may be?

 

CHIANTI CLASSICO is the other Bailey runner, and it begs the question: where are the runners from some of the bigger UK yards?. A race that you would normally be looking at Pipe / Nicholls / Henderson etc?. This horse has done nothing wrong, deserves a chance and is worthy of the market assessment and as usual you'd think David Bass will be at or near the front. Will it set the race up though for a stronger stayer?

 

STUMPTOWN may be that strong stayer, placed in the Kim Muir last season and slowly brought to a peak by Gavin Cromwell who could have an excellent week here, we really think this one could roar home up the hill off a fast early pace.

 

MONBEG GENIUS for the home team is a bit out of left field on current form and mirrors a yard that is notoriously hard to fathom and continually underperforms. However, they usually pull something out of the hat here and the horse was 3rd in that excellent renewal last year and a repeat of that would put him back on a par with THE GOFFER and just look at the Starting Price disparity.

 

Tips (1) The Goffer / (2) Trelawne / (3) Meetingofwaters / (4s) Chiante Classico / (5s) Stumptown / (6s) Mongeg Genius - 4.5 points staked

 

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THE ADVISOR / Michael G - 4.50 Fred Winter / Boodles Novices Handicap Hurdle - 2 miles 1/2 furong - Class 1 - 22 run - Soft

 

We have to be honest here and declare that a 3-3 UK / Irish democratic split would be a dereliction of duty and on form and commonsense it looks like an Irish benefit race! This does look a more wide-open race than The Ultima with a bigger price spread and opportunity for some bigger e/w value. 

 

LIARI is by far the best UK hope here but is 5th best rated overall, it's unbeaten over Hurdles and will hopefully grab an enhanced place to prevent near Irish domination. We thought that An Bradan Fease was one who could run a big race here and that Lark in the Mornin is an over-priced and vulnerable current favourite for Joseph O'Brien, with Eagle Fang another dark horse.

 

For the £1 brigade...Harsh @ 28/1  who is the O'Brien second string and far from a natural jumper does possibly have untapped potential if jumping better and undoubted stamina and Moroder @ 33/1 for Elliott is just one of those that is enigmatic with a capital E and might just put it all together here!

 

The top rated horse is actually a FRENCH Raider and is MILAN TINO. It's very highly feared by the Irish experts and possibly more so than by the home side, who I guess just don't rate French jumpers coming from France to race, yet they are happy to buy thm to be trained here at huge prices?...this one looks to be the one to beat IF the vibes are right.

 

KARIA DES BLAISES for Mullins looks progressive and gets a weight advantage over NDAAWI for Elliott who won nicely last time and who looks sure to run a big race and MISS MANZOR one of several from the Mullins yard who are in with excellent chances here. The one Mullins horse well backed who just missed out on the top 6 is Batman Girac and he'd be a very frustrating winner for us on that basis.

 

That's 5 down and the missing one, but actually the third rated on both of our lists and very much the dark horse of the Card on the day for us is PALAMON. He is a steady improver, off the radar and a Paul Nonal type for sure. His last run at Naas when beaten by NDAAWI was full of promise and he hit the line full of running, I always think Naas and Navan form is worth a few extra pounds over that of some of the flashier Dublin Courses and we really like this one a lot.

 

Tips (1) Milan Tino / (2) Karia Des Blaises / (3) Palamon / (4s) Ndaawi / (5s) Liari / (6s) Miss Manzor - 4.5 points staked

 

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The NON HANDICAPS....detailed analysis and discussion has delivered the following predictions (3 points per race / 1.5 if you prefer shrapnel only - note win only too)

 

1.30 - (1) Tullyhill / (2) Firefox / (3) Mystical Power (long-shot £1 = Asian Master)

 

2.10 - (1) I'll Etait Temps (2) Quillixios / (3) Hunters Yarn (long-shot £1 = JPR One) - we'll take on Gaelic Warrior in this one! 

 

3.30 - (1) State Man (win)  / (2) Irish Point / (3) Iberico Lord (long- shot £1 = Nemean Lion)

 

4.10 - (1) Lossiemouth (win) / (2) Ashroe Diamond / (3) Love Envoi

 

5.30 - (1) Corbetts Cross / (2) Apple Away

 

 

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