Sean / The Advisor - 2.10 Pertemps Final - Handicap Hurdle - Class 1 - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 24 run - Soft

 

This is always an incredibly tough puzzle as so often horses get the bare qualification and then either get put away and saved or run poor looking races to get a mark high enough to get in but low enough to have a handicap advantage on the day. You can over think the plot angle!

 

We think there are a couple well worth a £1 e/w fun bet who will appreciate conditions and who are optimal form wise in the conditions and they are NOBLE BIRTH @ 33/1 who gets a hefty penalty for a very impressive run at Navan , a track whose form translates well here and HECTOR JAVILEX @ 50/1 whose form may not be obvious but who is a solid yardstick with a Course and Distance win here early in 2023.

 

The likes of Gowel Road, Anna bunina, Mill Green, Gabby's Cross, and especially Cuthbert Dibble were closely considered but just missed out.

 

In order of preference the suggestions are-:

 

LE MILOS looks very much laid out for this and we saw yesterday that the Skelton yard and perhaps one of the most likely UK yard to take the fight to the Irish battalions. FAROUK D'ALENE returned from a near 2 year break and back to Hurdles and the form of its last run against one of our favourite Irish horses of 2024 was stand out form and he arrives here a very lively dark horse contender. CLEATUS POOLAW on the other hand is all out possible progression and potential and this ex 3 mile P2P recruit is wholly unexposed.

 

For the shrapnel bets, the favourite Irish horse of the season that we mentioned and one we latched on to very early is GAOTH CHUIL, a very honest horse, a lovely mare with a fantastic attitude, may be they have been too honest with this one, nothing is hidden and we know we'll get 100%. ICARE ALLEN has had a quiet preparation for this, not wholly proven in terms of stamina but that last run suggested it won't be an excuse. Finally EMITOM who has thrived under Alan King, is progressing and who just got the nod over Cuthbert Dibble for the UK team

 

(1) Le Milos / (2) Farouk D'Alene / (3) Cleatus Poolaw / (4s) Gaoth Chuil / (5s) Icare Allen / (6s) Emitom

 

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Robin / Michael - Cheltenham 4.10 - Plate Handicap Chase - Class 1 - 2 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - 21 run - Soft

 

Another tough race to call and for the £1 e/w fun bets we'll nominate EMBITTERED @ 66/1 an exposed Eliott runner who has long been in our standard Tracker (he gets the nod over Mars Harper here) and for the UK the Venertia Williams trained FRERO BANBOU @ 25/1  who has some decent Course and Distance form and optimum conditions and may be Venetias best Handicap chance this year.

 

Theatre Man and Crebilly are worthy favourites but we just feel that they may have already produced their very best and others have more experience of the big field occasion. Mullins and Elliott have some unexposed types who we have selected and a couple we haven't in Glenguly and  James De Berlais who just missed out on a final 6 nomination

 

The selected 6 in preference order are-

 

SHAKEM UP' ARRY looks primed for the other UK based trainer of the week so far in Ben Pauling. Conditions very much suit this Course specialist and with luck in running he looks an each way banker. SAINT FELICIEN has done all of asked of it so far and looks very progressive but this is the acid test as to where the ceiling may be?. IL RODITO deserves a big win here for some excellent Course consistency, it's probably getting its last realistic shout of a Festival win today and it may be slightly heart over head but another who looks very solid each way especially if some younger horses find the occasion all too much.

 

For the shrapnel bets we'll side with WATCH HOUSE CROSS, a very unexposed type for Henry De Bromhead and not immediately obvious. This one steps back from 3 miles where it's generally weakened at the business end of races. There is always a risk it's a soft stayer but it may alternatively have been very adroitly placed for a Trainer equally as good as Mullins or Elliott at this meeting and with far less ammunition number wise. ARCTIC BRESIL and RIANN from those powerful Irish yards are both horses building a decent Irish profile who will no doubt be trained for the day and either would only need a modicum of improvement to figure.

 

Tips (1) Shakem Up'Arry / (2) Saint Felicien / (3) Il Rodito / (4s) Watch House Cross / (5s) Arctic Bresil / (6s) Riann

 

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SPECULATOR - Cheltenham 5.30 - Kim Muir - Handicap Chase - Amateur Jockeys - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 24 run - Soft

 

Let's start with a £1 e/w fun bet and the Hobbs trained CELBRE D'ALLEN @ 100/1 does jump off the page a bit at big odds near 100/1 in places on some solid past form.

 

Inothewayurthinkin is a solid "win bet" but I really don't ever want to bet at 3/1 for anything to finish this sort of race let alone win, so very much punters choice, it should win, but will it? Angels Dawn won this last year and gets an 11 lbs hike, its a massive ask for it to win again and the field this year looks stronger. City Chief and the enigmatic Rapper could both figure on a "going" day and Rapper is very much a cliff horse for us! A Wave of The Sea and Cloudy Glen are veterans who on very best form would also have chances, but hopefully they all get round safe and well

 

The tips in preference order are-

 

WHERE IT ALL BEGAN is full of scope and potential and the sort who has done well in this race before, another who may have a higher ceiling than this. COOL SURVIVOR looks another very unexposed type laid out by the Yard for a leading amateur jockey. BOWTOGREATNESS is probably the best home hope given the form of the Pauling yard, there are ground niggles and Course niggles but a big run is anticipated.

 

For the shrapnel bets we'll go with DAILY PRESENT from a Yard you'd expect to leave the meeting with a win of some sort and very much the type to step up on past recent form, FAKIR D'ALENE (not to be confused with Farouk D'Alene) has had an injury absence but has form in this race prior to that and may just be a reviver too. GIT MAKER a strange name for a horse if taken in the literal sense has clearly been put away to wait for this after some decent Autumn form.

 

Tips (1) Where It All Began / (2) Cool Survivor / (3) Bowtogreatness / (4s) Daily Present / (5s) Fakir D'Alene / (6s) Git Maker

 

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Other Races

 

1.30 Facile Vega / Iroko / Grey Dawning (Colonel Harry may outrun bigger odds)

2.50 Protectorat / Fugitif / HITMAN is ante post accumulator horse

3.30 Sir Gerhard / Teauphoo / Home By The Lee

4.50 Brighter Days Ahead / Dysart Enos / Jade De Grugy

 

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That's a wrap for today

 

Back tomorrow