Very similar possible conditions to Kempton with soft Going and possible frost and more likely the bigger concern may be fog, so fingers crossed the Meeting is OK.

 

There is also the conundrum between potential and proven ability to slog it out and having got that conundrum totally wrong at Huntingdon yesterday it's a case of having courage of your convictions as a Tipster as I can't get away from the feeling and visualisation  of this being anything other than an absolute slog in dead ground.

 

Glencault Roque is a worthy and understandable favourite, has impressed the last twice and is a Tracker horse but I just don't think this race suits its profile at all. Corach Rambler is another mightily impressive progressive horse, long seen as the "next One For Arthur" but it's up from 127 to 134 to 142 today and one I think still to fully mature and at the price I'm not totally convinced they'll want to completely bottom it out. No Rematch for the vibrant Evan Williams yard is another well back, understandably so, will come on for seasonal debut and could crown a great day again for the Yard but niggles in my mind about the conditions and the trip.

 

If there are a pair of those at decent but not big prices it has to be ACHILLE runner up last year, in cracking form this, off a nice mark but who had 2 tough runs in early and late December and has had 19 days to recover, if it has it's an each way banker here and I'll invest accordingly. Many have overlooked NOTACHANCE winner last year and off the same mark today. It has pulled up in 3 of 4 runs since and twice of those it was lame, it showed glimmers of a return to form last time and can't be discounted but those injury and fragile legs just worry me too much. Hopefully it gets round safe and sound and can continue to return to form. Paddleyouowncanoe made an impressive return for the Skeltons but despite the Yard being formidable here, I'm just concerned too about the trip in the conditions for that one.

 

That leaves me with 3 at bigger prices who in different conditions may be outclassed in the closing stages but "plodders" (not a derogatory term in the context of this race) can and do have their day.

 

In order of preference I think that JERRYSBACK who has been nearly 4 miles and placed although well beaten at it is worth a try at this trip and no horse will have a better rider tahnAiden Coleman in this type of race for the in-form Hobbs yard. I think they are here to win and will run to the line and aim to run to the line and see where that leaves them. MINELLA ENCORE from the Newland yard won last time impressively and if the first time blinkers employed then work again has scope to improve and it's another horse you think is here to go all out to win and this is a target race. At huge Odds too and given all we know about the Yard I just cannot leave out GAME LINE off a feather weight, it's one of those damned if you do and damned if you don't scenarios but I can see it plodding one miles behind nicking a place at big Odds past pulled up horses saved for another day!