ROBIN - Exeter 4.15 Handicap Chase - Class 4 - 2 miles 3 furlongs - 15 run - Good to Soft

 

A competitive heat and there may be some good each way value.

 

At the top end of the market Moytier took a very heavy fall in his last run less than 3 weeks ago and it's always a risk as to what mental or physical scars that may have left. Bolsover Bill is penalised 5 lbs for a Course and Distance win when he just did enough but I think this one is best with some significant cut in the ground and would want it softer or heavy and for that reason I'll look elsewhere. Both Lazy Sunday and Time To Bite look to be on tough handicap marks as a result of good runs and I think they need to come back down the weights a bit now. Western General ticks all the right boxes apart from the weight and mark and is reluctantly left off the final list but I just felt that a few had more obvious chances on the day. Belgarum is in the TRACKER but has become disappointing and I want to see a bit more before investing and there is a TRACKER horse with a better chance today I feel. Finally, one I'm adding to the TRACKER is King of Brazil who has some interesting hUrdles form, has lost its way a little but has had a Wind Operation and hopefully that will allow it to run to its merits and we can see a return to full potential soon.

 

My three against the field are FLASH GORCOMBE who is a Course and Distance winner off a mark of 85, I think this one can defy a penalty and I also think the further it goes the better it will get and has the scope to make a nice horse with a good 3 mile P2P background. A mark of 93 with a 3lbs Claim looks pretty lenient to me. BONZA BOY has some decent Course form and should now be fully race fit and has the form to take a hand here and the TRACKER who I think could deliver a bold run here at a price is LIGHTONTHEWING who definitely needed a seasonal debut run, may still just need this so we'll be sure to follow forwards too, but a progressive horse and the drying ground is a definite plus.

 

Tips (1) Flash Gorcombe / (2) Bonza Boy / (3s) Lightonthewing