Punchestown 6.35 Handicap Hurdle - 25 run - Good to Yielding (dry until after race time)

 

The obvious starting point is the hot and well backed favourite CAPTAIN CODY from the Mullins Team, unproven at the trip and on handicap debut, with a somewhat average P2P record over this sort of 3 mile trip, it's around 5/2 and logic and experience suggests it may hose up, so let's get the monkey off our back and suggest a small win saver for those who want to cover their each way bets and look at the other 24 runners and indeed a few very dangerous looking reserves.  

 

Kilbeg King won this last year for the British and returns after a disappointing Chase campaign off a mark 8lbs higher, I fear any horse from the Yard who is very respected, but I'm looking elsewhere. Lucky Lyreen for Elliott is being well backed and very progressive but is upped 7lbs and in a deeper race , makes Course debut too and wins have been in softer and heavier Going, I really do fancy Gordon has better chances here. Coming Up Easy is the least exposed and possibly more progressive of the De Bromhead runners and Blackmore choses this one, once again, I do think Henry has better options with more proven form here. Kinturk Kalanisis is a solid, reliable and sound stayer but he'd ideally want a significant amount of rain I think to be in his best conditions. O'Moore Park is another unexposed Mullins runner who could be anything and therefore also very much feared. 

 

I'll nail my flag though very much on solid if exposed but undeniable and proven handicap form. Chosen Witness ran well to win at Ayr for Mullins but other than that win would not be my idea of a winner of this with a penalty. Chantry House runs for Henderson and is clearly a solid British yardstick but I think Ireland has more suitable types. Della Casa Lunga IS interesting, not so much on some progressive UK form in lesser races but some earlier Irish form and isn't discounted lightly. 

 

I do think though that De Bromhead and Elliott could hold some cards here that are better than recent form may suggest or whose solid form may have been overlooked.

 

POPOVA ran well at Cheltenham only fading late on over lightly further up that hill and although Rachel jocks off I think a repeat of the runs prior to Cheltenham and off its true Irish mark of 125 give it an excellent chance here if not over the top. MAXXUM did very well to win a big Leopardstown handicap in February off a mark of 137 and the same Claimer rides here off a mark 6 pounds here, lets not underestimate though not only his big field Irish handicap form, but also a couple of excellent efforts here at Punchestown. 

 

GABBY'S CROSS another De Bromhead  runner ran inexplicably badly at Cheltenham, so you have to take well being on trust but IF that was a blip, then the previous form looks very solid and this is another the market may have underestimated. Likewise WILL DO for Elliott who has been in much stronger and deeper and classier Handicap Hurdle Company this year, should find this a far more comfortable playing field and I'll be very disappointed if he's not able to be running in to the top 6-10 at odds of around 33/1 off a very appealing mark.

 

If we go with those on that basis then the 100/1 early about Elliots STUZZIKINI @ 100/1 to 6 places is laughable, a runner up twice here in big fields, a Clonmel winner off 126, which rather spaffed his handicap mark but back to a mark of 130 with a 5lbs Claimer and at the price surely has to be worth a small speculative punt. (Reserve Getaway Charlie has close collateral form with both Will Do and Stuzzikini so may be worth considering "with a run" if any of ours are non runners.)

 

So with a win saver, I'll have some e/w punts on the main preferred runners and a smaller bet on Stuzzikini (Sean)

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