Exeter 3.20

Exeter 3.20 8 Zephyros Bleu - 1/2 point e/way @ 12/1 (WH / B365) / 10 Umberto D'Olivate 1/2 point e/way @ 11/1 (B365/Sky)

(all Bookies go odds to 4th place in this race)

What a tough race this is, 3 miles and many on seasonal debut; so I am looking at Course form, right handed form;
ability to handle the Going and form fresh or first time out. I will start at the head of the market, Cernunnos should go well for a long
way, but is better on flatter tracks and in my view more of a "summer horse". It could be "ridden to sleep" by Geraghty at the back
and use its relative fitness to pour it on past beaten horses but I don't see the hill suiting it. Vieux Lille is a class hurdler and Course
specialist, it is though a deliberate jumper of Chase fences, it has one stand out piece of form with American but I think that flattered
it and although a subsequent run at Haydock looks solid on paper, let's not forget the portable roll in fences there are really glorified
hurdles with a bit of brush on top, far less demanding than these. Those pair and the Kim Bailey horse; will take all the beating but
let's take them on with some value. ZEPHYROS BLEU is a calculated gamble, a big growing strapping horse he has good form in
stamina sapping conditions at Ffos Llas, subject of some glowing reports last season and looks one to follow whatever he does
today, seasonal debut last year was going well until he made a bad error, I would like to see him ridden off the pace where a few
might go too fast too soon and make jumping errors turning in under pressure. One who does go well fresh, has great CD cv and
who has won 3 times for SP2A including twice here is UMBERTO D'OLIVATE and I think he can get in to a nice rhythm, as is his
way here; set the fractions and make something come and take him on. Usually a safe jumper he may take the 3 market leaders
to "jumping pressure" they won't feel comfortable with up that hill and if he does, he can place at worst but also set up ZB, I hope!
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