Sunday 6th October
We had both Carrytheone (6th) and Arkadian Thunder (8th) noted as "eyecatchers" in the Racing post following their runs at Ascot yesterday, you can look at that one of three ways, (1) they had trouble in running but finished well, (2) they are both developing a bad habit of finding trouble in running which is becoming frustrating, (3) they lost, bottom line they didn't deliver. I'd suggest all 3 are pertinent and relevant but of the three then the final one is truly the most important!
Poor outcomes too in the 2 year old races although we did lose Afentiko, strongly fancied who was a non runner.
I'll be discussing our current form, or lack of it generally later on in this message.
It's Arc De Triomphe Day and we'll have a look at the big race with a few betting suggestions, as always we think best to back French horses at UK prices and UK or overseas (not French) horses on the Pari Mutuel if you get the option. I have to say that having looked at the runners myself, I do feel it's a very substandard renewal, I think one of those generational shifts when some good older age horses have retired having run at 4-5-6 and the 3 year old crop frankly don't look anything but distinctly average to my eyes, you may of course have very differing views, please feel free to get in touch and I'm always very happy to give any member a platform to share their views.
We've looked at Ireland today but nothing stands out for the guys, the Kelso Card looks competitive but likely to be top end of the market dominated, Robin however, has a couple of fancies at Uttoxeter where some mid afternoon rain should ensure Soft ground conditions.
Here is a summation of a couple of articles that we'll put in full on to the Members Paddock tomorrow morning at around 9.00am
CHELTENHAM 2025 plans
The plans recently announced for the 2025 Cheltenham have as you would imagine been received with mixed views.
I believe that the decision to turn the X-Country Race into a Handicap is a partially sensible move. Personally I don't think this race has any place at the Festival or at Cheltenham. They are great "Banks" races at the Irish Tracks with historic Courses or places like Pardubice, but to me at Cheltenham have always seemed "mickey mouse" and contrived.
At least by making the Race a true handicap, we may open it up more to some different types of Long Distance Chasers, decent P2P horses and those who would usually be seen in Hunter Chases.
I think that the other most controversial change is the removal of the Amateur Riders Chase. Aside from the fact that some of the leading Amateurs are and have long been amongst the very best horsemen and women, it also removes a fantastic opportunity offered to those who qualify and can participate. What seems to have been completely forgotten here (by an elitist clique) is that those why qualify will often run in heavily subscribed Qualifiers, mostly at small thriving midweek tracks, many of whom get a core support from the P2P / Hunting / Chasing communities and this could cause deep and serious issues down the food chain.
I find it very paradoxical to be writing in support of this community as I am passionately opposed to Fox Hunting by Hounds and Horses and the arrogant nature of some who support that barbarism. However , it is an undeniable fact that many in rural communities who support NH racing have links to Hunting, and it's not the horses fault that some fat obnoxious gin swilling Hooray Henry is sitting atop it...
Fundamentally though I think the Cheltenham changes have possibly created more problems than they solve. I feel the bigger issues are infrastructure, drink and drug related bad behaviour , overcrowding , dilution of the product by adding extra day (god forbid we get a 5th) and the bloody hype that has "so-called" tipsters and experts relating every NH race to Cheltenham and completely ignoring the grass roots at great venues like Kelso, like Ludlow, like Wincanton etc.
-----
Overall form and concerns....
I'm never happy or satisfied with the form of Tipsters really as we set out with a serious and genuine intent to find the winner of every race we tip in, or at the very least some each way profit.
Our Irish Tipsters have dropped off a sustained and excellent peak in recent weeks / couple of months. The fact that both sustained a very good long spell of sustained net profit has proven their abilities, and their blips are usually not long or too deep. We saw in the week that given the ammunition that Sean can find nice winners and as the Flat season winds down in Ireland and NH cranks up, especially in the midweek meetings I'd anticipate a return to normal service.
The Advisor has had a very strong summer run in general and after a very fallow spell our Northern Expert has refound some form, especially at York and we'd be hopeful that both can translate that into the winter with our Northern Expert also a dab hand on the AW.
Robin has returned and will select spasmodically until the NH really kicks in next month. RJ after a very slow start and some major tweaking away from what he had been used to, has I think shown enough evidence of his talents with some nice winners and placed horses and I think he can only get better with time. It's been frustrating that Carolyn has had some unexpected personal family and friend issues to deal with, but I'm sure that next summer will see her as a massive asset.
The problem for all has been , small fields, changeable weather and above all a massive glut of non runners. A spell 2 weeks ago which got me penning the original article when decent 6-10/1 each way pokes were winning, but at 6/4 and 2/1 because half the fields were taken out. Why this is such an issue in the UK and not so much in Ireland lies deeply rooted in some key and terrifying issues that continually chip away at UK Racing.
Rank bad management
A complete lack of a long term vision
Elitism and Gimmicks
Top down solutions that cut off 90% of the Sport (whenever has any top down solution ever worked?)
Kneeling down to the "altar of TV contracts"
Ignoring the views of the core existing customer base for the sole interests of Bookmakers / Gen Z drunks and druggies who want a piss up!
Fundamentally a frightening reduction of horses in training across all codes.
A broken funding model that means the vast majority of living on a cliff edge...
What are the answers, where are the solutions?...
We'll open up a discussion on this over the winter months and all views will be welcomed...
Tipping
Punting
The Sports ills and solutions.
It's probably no surprise that Horse Racing and other Sports are on the edge of disaster, the World generally is in the same place, Global Wars, the rise of Fascist Dictators, a denial of the race to destroy the Planet by Climate Change....you could go on and on....hopefully in our quiet corners we can find some peace and solitude and enjoy some profitable competitive and enjoyable Horse Racing for the foreseeable future...