Ascot 3.35
Ascot 3.35 - Handicap Hurdle - Grade 3 - a bare 2miles....(Soft/Heavy) - 17 run
As ever this handicap hurdle looks a very competitive affair and, at the time of writing, there are 17 runners set to go to post in what looks set to be very testing conditions and it’s a case of seeking out horses that have the potential to handle attritional conditions best.
This is a race that Nicky Henderson has done well in over the years and he saddles the current favourite for the race in BUZZ. This 6 year-old was a fair performer on the flat, when in the care of Hughie Morrison, but looked a potential star in the making when bolting up over course and distance last month in soft ground. Prior to that, he was 3rd in The Welsh Champion Hurdle, which was a very good performance, and the form of that race is working out very well. He could be open to more improvement but he has gone up 11lbs for that last win and this will be a tough task off top weight in a better class race. He looks worth taking on at the prices although if he wins I won’t mind too much as all of the prize money earned by the horse goes to a well-deserving cancer charity.
Henderson has a second contender in this race, down at the other end of the weights, with the JP McManus-owned TIME FLIES BY. Still a maiden over hurdles, this 5 year-old came 3rd over course-and-distance at this meeting last year, finishing behind MASTER DEBONAIR but ahead of the progressive McFabulous. His last two runs have both been over a half mile further than this and it is interesting that connections are dropping him back in trip for his handicap debut. He has been the subject of strong market support during the course of Friday evening.
There are several front-runners in this race, so the pace looks set to be strong, and one of those likely to be up with the leaders early on is the aforementioned MASTER DEBONAIR. He has a very good record at this track with a perfect 2/2 over the course-and-distance, both in testing conditions, and enjoyed a very good season as a novice last year. He returned to action last month, in The Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, but was very disappointing and finished tailed off as last of the 6 runners. He lost a shoe that day, and connections also blamed the “unsuitable” good ground, but he stopped very quickly and has much to prove here on his drop into handicap company. The Tizzard yard is having a very ‘stop-start’ season and they turn to a 7 lb claimer with the horse sitting near the top of the weights.
Another horse with a perfect 2/2 record over course-and-distance is last year’s winner NOT SO SLEEPY. He is, also, another who likes to front-run and won this by 9 lengths last year from the front. He is now 15lbs higher, and may not get such an easy time of it up front, so faces a much stiffer task this time around. The horse has had rather a mixed time of things since his success last year, suffering problems following false starts in both the Betfair Hurdle in February and in The Champion Hurdle in March and, latterly, planting himself at the first flight in The Fighting Fifth Hurdle and causing mayhem. In between those races, he did run with great credit on the flat, winning at Pontefract and then repeating his 4th place of the previous year in The Cesarewitch. He is quite versatile with regards to ground but he certainly won’t mind the deep conditions as 5 of his 7 career wins have come on either soft or heavy going. This race is a big drop in class from his last hurdles start and, if bouncing back from his aberration at Newcastle, he could make another bold attempt for victory from the front once more.
Two other course-and-distance winners line up in here and they are KID COMMANDO and MALAYA. These two actually met here earlier in the season and it was the former who came out on top on that occasion, winning by over 4 lengths. KID COMMANDO is yet another who likes to race prominently and will, therefore, find it hard to dominate in the same way as he did in that race in October. He is also up 7lbs for that win, whilst his trainer is not in the same red hot form as he was at that point in the season, and he needs to bounce back from a below par run at Haydock last time. He may have been found out by the step up in trip at Haydock but, as a PTP winner over 3 miles, I’m not sure that is definitely the case and his usual jockey, Aiden Coleman, takes the ride on TIME FLIES BY here which could also be a possible pointer to his chances.
Although beaten by KID COMMANDO, the case for MALAYA would appear stronger here. Whilst the prospect of plenty of pace could count against KID COMMANDO, it looks like good news for MALAYA,, whose biggest win came in a strongly-run Imperial Cup at Sandown last year. That was the 6 year-old mare’s last win and came off a mark just 3lbs lower than she runs from here. She only went up by 1lb following her 2nd place in October and, so, is now some 6lbs better off with her conqueror here. Bryony Frost was not over-hard on the horse, either, once it was clear she was booked for the runners-up spot but she still finished 10 lengths clear of the horse in 3rd. She has a good record in deep ground, winning 3 times and placing a further 6 times in 11 completed runs on going described as either soft or heavy, and her trainer applies a first-time tongue-tie here. Paul Nicholls, somewhat surprisingly, does not have a good record in this race but, having also had proven mud lark Sir Psycho entered at the five-day stage, it is noteworthy that he relies just on this one and she looks to have been laid out for this since the start of the season.
Not for the first time, we saw last week how Irish trainers can send over very well-handicapped horses to claim big prizes and, with that in mind, it’s worth looking at the intriguing entry of BELFAST BANTER in here for Peter Fahey. Perhaps best known for Peregrine Run, he has a healthy 23% strike-rate in the last 4 seasons when sending horses over the Irish Sea. He clearly doesn’t do it unless he feels it’s justified and that’s even more likely to be the case in the current climate given all the Covid protocols etc. The horse has won just the once, so far, over hurdles and that came in October when successful at Galway in soft ground. Previously with Dan Skelton, this former pointer finished 2nd behind the excellent Captain Guinness on stable debut, 12 months ago, which is good form, but, despite performing very consistently, then took a while to finally break his duck over obstacles. This is a deep race in which to make his handicap debut but it is dangerous to dismiss him and his relatively low mark, and weight, could make him a player with his usual jockey coming over to take the ride also.
At the foot of the weights is Alan King’s 4 year-old novice ISOLATE. He failed to win in 5 starts on the flat but is already proving to be a better hurdler, winning 2 of his 4 races and placing in the others. His two wins have come in his last two races and he is clearly improving. His last win was at Leicester, when he won easily in soft ground, but it was his win the time before that caught my eye on the day as the horse he beat at Taunton, Glory and Honour, is one I believe could be destined for better things. He’ll need to improve, and the likely deep ground is a little bit of an unknown, but his jumping has looked good and the likely fast pace could suit this free-going sort.
Alan King is another with 2 runners in here and his other horse, HARAMBE, will be looking for a change of fortune. He has only competed twice since winning The Greatwood Hurdle last year and has failed to finish each time. Firstly, in February, he was making progress in The Betfair Hurdle at Newbury when he was brought down and, then, in last month’s renewal of The Greatwood, he fell at the last flight when staying on. He probably would not have won but he may well have been placed and the run showed that he, at least, was in form. He is 5lbs higher than his winning mark from last year and, whilst the original plan this season was to go chasing, connections clearly feel he is still capable of winning another big handicap hurdle off his current rating. He goes very well in the mud and, when completing, has never finished out of the first 4 in such conditions. His experience of these big-field races is useful and, whilst most of his races have been on left-handed tracks, his record when going right-handed is 3 wins and a 2nd place from just the 4 runs. He is due some luck and rates a big each-way player at the current odds.
When HARAMBE was brought-down in The Betfair Hurdle, the horse who fell in front of him, causing the mayhem, was LIGHTLY SQUEEZE who lines up here for the in-form yard of Harry Fry. He was running a very big race at Newbury when coming to grief and had just hit the front and, while it’s difficult to say if he would have won, he would undoubtedly have gone close. He is a horse that seems to thrive in testing conditions so the ground will not be a problem for him and all 5 of his career wins on turf have come in either soft or heavy going. He is another horse who contested the Welsh Champion Hurdle in October, finishing 7th, and, although he travelled well into the race, his run rather petered out which prompted connections to send him for wind surgery. He is 15lbs better off with BUZZ from that race and, having been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper, is back on the same mark from which he ran so well in The Betfair Hurdle. He is definitely one for the shortlist.
Another one in here who ran in The Betfair Hurdle in February is OAKLEY. He ran creditably that day and finished 7th and was generally very consistent last season. He was well beaten in The County Hurdle at Cheltenham and reappeared with a solid enough effort at Wetherby in October and lines up here off a mark 2lbs lower than in The Betfair Hurdle. He is weighted to finish ahead of several of these on past form but may not want the ground to be as deep as is likely here.
A horse who does seem to thrive when the mud is flying is ARRIVEDERCI who runs here for Jonjo O’Neill. A useful novice last season, he was sent off a well-supported favourite for a competitive handicap at Haydock last month. He was still travelling well and moving into contention when falling 3 flights out and many felt he would have played a part in the finish. There’s no way of knowing that, of course, but he had got the better of the eventual winner the time before when winning at Wetherby and was certainly travelling powerfully. The third horse in the Wetherby contest has also won since, to give the form a boost too. He still went up 2lbs, despite the fall, and looks a handicapper who is improving. He is another with a tongue-tie added and, although his price shortened considerably on Friday, is very much worthy of a place on the shortlist.
Dan Skelton is a trainer with a good record in this race in recent years and, after also having, a strong ante-post fancy for many, Third Time Lucki entered at the 5-day stage, he relies on just the one horse here in WEST TO THE BRIDGE. He last ran in the stayers hurdle at Haydock, over 3 miles, so this represents quite a step back in trip. He didn’t look to stay that trip on that day, in soft ground, but he travelled extremely well in the race and only faded after the final hurdle. He has raced over hurdles on 15 occasions in his career, so far, but, on the evidence of his three runs this season, he looks to have found a new lease of life and he key looks to be a change of tactics. He was a regular front-runner, and would often ruin his chances by racing too keenly, but, this season, they have reverted to hold up tactics and seemingly got him to settle much better. The faster, stronger pace over this minimum distance will, hopefully, help in this regard and, whilst this is a step back in trip, he has won twice over the trip in the past. He seems quite versatile in terms of ground but most of his best performances have come in genuine soft or heavy going and both wins at the distance came in such conditions. Dan Skelton is a superb target trainer and I’m intrigued as to why it is this horse he has chosen here over one that was, seemingly, better fancied in the market earlier in the week. His assured stamina could be a key attribute should the ground make this a real slog and he looks over-priced to me.
A horse who has been well supported in the week is BENSON. This 5 year-old is quite light on experience and has only raced the once outside of novice company. That was last time out when he won well at Sandown, despite a mistake two hurdles out, beating a decent field. He has gone up 10lbs for that win, which makes life more difficult here, and that race was only two weeks ago, but his trainer is another who is very good at targeting these big handicaps and has an excellent record at Ascot with his hurdlers (29% strike-rate in the last 5 years). He also has his string in good form at present so is not easily discounted.
The Pipe stable is having a resurgence this season and they run the 4 year-old, NIGHT EDITION, here. This is his seasonal debut and the trainer readily admits that it has been a rush to get him ready for this but the horse has proved he handles very soft ground and finished 2nd in the Fred Winter hurdle at Cheltenham in March so can go well in big fields. He is likely to be aimed at many of the big 2 mile handicaps this season but he may be one to watch and note on this occasion.
The other two horses in here are, also, 4 year-olds. BOTOX HAS, who runs for Gary Moore, has a fine record against his own age group but was slightly disappointing last time when taking on open company at Newbury. He should relish this return to softer ground but does look to be on a stiff enough handicap mark.
CORMIER is an ex-flat horse who has taken to hurdling well this autumn after, initially, being pulled up on debut in the summer. He ran well last time, in The Greatwood Hurdle, finishing 7th despite losing a shoe in running. He has been dropped 3lbs following the race and that experience may stand him good stead here. Darryl Jacob comes in for the ride for a trainer who always has to be respected when sending one down South for a race like this.
A very difficult puzzle to try to solve and it’s not easy whittling down a short-list to final picks. Of those towards the head of the market, I like the chances of ARRIVERDERCI the best but his price has contracted somewhat in the last 24 hours and much of the early value has now gone so I will pass him over in favour of horses at bigger prices. The other horse who just misses the cut is LIGHTLY SQUEEZE, and I would make him first reserve should any of the selections fail to line up, but a combination of ground conditions, course form and experience of big field handicaps leads me to the main selections of MALAYA and HARAMBE, whilst, at bigger prices, for a couple of tracker picks, I will risk NOT SO SLEEPY bouncing back to the form of this time last year whilst WEST TO THE BRIDGE, for a trainer who knows how to target these races, looks over-priced and the likely strong pace could play into his hands, if he doesn’t get out-paced early on, in ground he clearly enjoys.
Wishing you all a very happy and safe Christmas.
TIPS - Malaya + Harambe / Trackers West To The Bridge + Not So Sleepy