The Bunbury Cup is a 7f handicap and is always a tricky race to unravel. This year looks no different with a field of 20 currently set to go to post. The going on the first two days of the meeting has been on the fast side but with showers forecast throughout Saturday this, as we saw last week, could easily change so makes the puzzle even more difficult to solve. 

A good place to start is probably last year’s winner MOTAKHAYYEL. He tops the weights this time and comes back looking for his first win since his victory here 12 months ago. He is 4lbs higher than last year but does run this July course very well indeed. His win in this contest was his second at the track and he arrives here on the back of a 2^nd place finish last time here in June. With Jim Crowley heading up to York, Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride and, interestingly, he is the only jockey riding in this year’s race who has ever won the contest. In fact, he has won it 3 times and twice in the last five runnings. Richard Hannon’s 5 year-old has only finished out of the first two in 4 of his 12 races and, with 3 of those coming over a mile and the other in very soft ground (which he does not want), his chances have to be respected here. He faces a stiff task, giving weight all round, but this contest does not look as strong as last year’s and the form of his last race was given a minor boost on Thursday when the horse that finished 5^th came out at this meeting to run a big race in 2^nd in the big handicap race. He has to be on the short-list. 

KIMIFIVE also ran in last year’s renewal of this race and, after struggling to get a clear run until it was too late, ran on to finish 6^th. His style of running can sometimes lead to him being a hostage to fortune and, although he’s now gone more than 2 years since his last win, he is a consistent performer. His consistency, however, does mean that he gets very little respite from the handicapper and he is just 1lb lower than last year, despite not winning in 7 subsequent races. The last of those races came over course-and-distance last month and he meets 2 of the same opponents here. 

That race was won by AMETIST who arrives here looking for a fifth straight win. William Haggas’ trained 4 year-old is lightly raced and has been all the rage in the ante-post market but has to carry a 6lb penalty here for that win having only gone up 3lbs in the handicap. That said, he looked far better value than the winning distance last time and a similar performance here would see him go very close. KIMIFIVE is 6lbs better off, however, and was only beaten just over a length so it is not a foregone conclusion that the form is confirmed. 

Trainer Richard Fahey has a good record in this race and he has won it 3 times this century. He has 3 entries this year and all are down towards the foot of the weights. Right at the bottom is GABRIAL THE WIRE and he is a horse who will not welcome too much rain if it comes. He was clearly not suited by the soft ground last week at Haydock but had won, off 3lbs lower, at York prior to that on a decent surface. He has won off a mark 2lbs higher than this, so is by no means handicapped out of it, but is held by a couple in here based on past form. 

Just 1lb higher in the weights is NATIONAL LEAGUE and he has gone up 5lbs following his good 2^nd place finish at York last month. They went without the usual visor that day and do so again here in the hope that he can run well again. 

The final entrant for Richard Fahey is TADLEEL and he is a horse who has been rather more successful on the all-weather than he has on turf. He only has the one win to his name on turf but that did come over this course-and-distance 4 years ago. He is a bit of a Newcastle specialist, winning all 3 starts there, and his last win came at that venue in February. His last run saw him finish 2^nd, at Redcar, and he was possibly a little unlucky there as the jockey was slow to remove the hood at the start and he suffered a tardy start as a result. He was doing his best work at the end and this race could be run to suit. 

PEROTTO is currently vying for favouritism with AMETIST for this race and Marcus Tregonning’s 3 year-old is enjoying an excellent season. He has won his last two races, at Goodwood and Royal Ascot, and prior to that ran very well in two races where the form has been working out very well indeed. He races off a mark just 2lbs higher than that from which he won The Britannia at Ascot and is, therefore, 5lbs well-in here. The form of The Britannia is starting to work out very well, with Dubai Honour the latest to frank to with his win at this meeting on Friday, and, although this is run over a furlong shorter he should have no issue with the drop back in trip. Being a 3 year-old he gets the 8lb weight allowance but, whilst he looks the one to beat, it is worth bearing in mind that the classic generation do not have a great record in this race in recent years. 

The other 3 year-old in the field, who also gets the allowance, is FUNDAMENTAL who runs for The Gosdens. He is yet to win on turf but he has been running in higher grade races than this and has some good form to his name. He finished 5^th in The Greenham at Newbury in April and was 5^th again in The Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. This is his first step into handicap company and he may just be getting in here on a lenient mark given the calibre of some of the horses he has been beating in group contests. Like PEROTTO he, too, is ‘well-in’ here with his future mark already set at 6lbs higher. He holds a couple of Group 2 entries at both Goodwood and York and will probably need to be winning a race like this off this mark if they are to be serious targets. 

There are 6 horses running here who took part in The Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. The one who fared best there was LORD RAPSCALLION, finishing 4^th, and he runs off the same mark here. He was drawn on the favourable side of the track that day but, having seemingly been outpaced early, ran through the line very strongly after being hit across the face by a flailing whip from another jockey. Previously trained in Ireland by Johnny Murtagh, he has been kept very busy but is yet to win in the UK. He may need a strong pace to aim at to feature here and that is far from certain. 

Finishing 6^th and 7^th respectively at Ascot, but drawn on the unfavoured far side, were RAISING SAND and SYMBOLIZE. They were the first two home on that side so probably need their runs upgraded and, whilst RAISING SAND, would probably want the heavens to open, SYMBOLIZE seems to be versatile ground-wise. He certainly looks better drawn this time and his trainer is in flying form at present and, with David Probert down at Ascot, Oisin Murphy takes the ride for the first time. He is yet to win over today’s distance but finished 2^nd over on The Rowley Mile over the trip in April and a repeat of that run, against a well-handicapped rival, could see him make the frame. Another for the short-list. 

ROPEY GUEST was another who found himself drawn on the wrong side at Ascot and he finished 12^th. He returned at Royal Ascot just a few days later and, again, found himself drawn on the ‘wrong side’ (this time the near side) when finishing 12^th in The Wokingham. 

Widely regarded as the best maiden in training in the UK until his success at Chelmsford at the end of August last year, he has kept better company than this in many of his races in his career so far and has finished placed in 4 group races. He looks as though he could be drawn more favourably here, and this has apparently been the main plan for him this season, but I believe he probably wants softer ground than he’s likely to get here. 

Two places behind in The Buckingham Palace was BOARDMAN, again drawn on the far side, and that brought to an end a 3-race winning run which had culminated in an excellent win at Chester where he beat a couple of today’s opponents easily and had a subsequent dual-winner back in 2^nd. He runs here off a mark that is 21lbs higher than when the winning run started and Rob Hornby, who rode at Chester, is back on board. 

Further back at Ascot was KARIBANA, having also been drawn on the far side, and he looks to be coming here on somewhat of a retrieval mission. Prior to that race, he had beaten the subsequent Ascot scorer, Highfield Princess, at Chelmsford, off just 4lbs lower, and a return to that form will see him go close here. Richard Hughes’ trained horses are often under-estimated in the market for big handicaps like this and this horse has winning form over this course-and-distance. He’s certainly no forlorn hope and could run a good race at a decent price. 

Looking at the likely pace in this race, there does not appear to be many in here who like to force it and what pace there is looks to be low. The most likely horse to lead is SHINE SO BRIGHT and there is just a chance that he is allowed to dictate things from there relatively hassle-free. If that is the case, there is no better jockey from the front than Silvestre De Sousa and he could make a bold bid from the front. The horse has not won for nearly 2 years but that win did come in a Group 2 at York, where he got the better of Laurens, and he did finish a creditable 6^th in the 2000 Guineas in that same year. This will be just his 3^rd appearance in a handicap, with his first coming when winning on The Rowley Mile two years ago and the second on the all-weather at Lingfield earlier this season when he was beaten by a head by COUNT OTTO who re-opposes here. He is 7lbs better off with Amanda Perrett’s charge here and, having finished 4^th in a listed event at Salisbury over 6 furlongs last time, should be more at home over this 7 furlong trip. 

David Barron won this race 4 years ago and he runs ON A SESSION here. The 5 year-old only joined this yard in September, having previously raced in both France and Ireland, and made his stable debut in The Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton in March. He ran well there, finishing 2^nd off a mark of 91, and is just 1lb higher here. The horse appeared to finish his race off well that day, on what was his first run on the all-weather, but he has not won for over 2 years now and has never won beyond 6 furlongs. He ran well in Thirsk’s Hunt Cup, finishing 4^th, but did too much too early last time in the race here won by AMETIST and connections will be hoping the application of a hood will help him settle better. 

JUMAIRA BAY comes here on the back of a win in a lower grade all-weather contest last time, for which he gets a 6lb penalty, but a look back at some of his form from last year could lead to a case being made for him to run a good race. For example, he was beaten just a length by the now 101-rated Nugget on seasonal debut last year, getting just 2lbs, whilst he was beaten just a short head by Brunch, who is now rated 104 and finished 2^nd in The Lincoln, in receipt of just 1lb. Those two pieces of form, alone, could indicate that his mark of 95 here under-estimates his ability. He has low mileage on the clock and could still improve this year, having been gelded over the winter, and warrants respect given connections.  

Of the others in here CLIFFS OF CAPRI was a tip for us in The Hunt Cup and he actually ran better than his final finishing position of 15^th suggests. He likes fast ground but may be a bit high in the handicap still. 

REVICH also ran in The Hunt Cup, but was well beaten, and he might want some rain to be seen to his best here, particularly as he remains 3lbs above his last winning mark. 

As mentioned earlier, 3 year-olds do not have a great record in this race in recent years but there has not always been a strong challenge from that age group. This year does look a little different and the quality of the older generation horses does not look, to my eye at least, to be the highest. For that reason, I can see why PEROTTO has been so strongly supported in the market and he does look to be the most obvious winner of this race off a nice low-weight, being 5lbs ‘well-in’ and getting the 8lbs age allowance also. He is probably worth a win ‘saver’ on that basis. 

The other 3 year-old FUNDAMENTAL also has a lot of those same ‘advantages’ but is a bigger price. Horses dropping into handicaps from group company can sometimes be more well handicapped than appears on first look and he does have some good form in the book. He has a good looking draw in stall 14 (a stall which has actually provided the winner in the last 2 years and 3 of the last 5) and the fact that Frankie Dettori doesn’t ride is probably down to the low weight so should not be seen as a negative. The future entries of the horse also indicate that connections think he is better than this. 

Andrew Balding won the big handicap last week with a horse who had been competing in group events and, in the same colours, it is possible he could repeat the does here with SHINE SO BRIGHT. He is the only confirmed front-runner here and, hopefully, Silvester De Sousa can bounce him out and dictate at a pace that suits him. If a horse gets on a nice roll on this course up front they can be difficult to pass and nobody goes from the front better than this jockey. The stable continues in good form and the horse is now a stone lower in the ratings then when defeating Laurens 2 years ago.  

Whilst much of the action over the last two days has been taking place over the far side, the fact that most of the prominent racers, and the likely leader, are drawn low here could mean that those around that area get a nice town into the race and that could bring in last year’s winner MOTAKHAYYEL. He is the obvious class angle in the race and, although top weight, he is only 4lbs higher than 12 months ago. It won’t be easy to concede weight all round (particularly to the 3 year olds) but he has the added bonus of Frankie Dettori on board and some very good course form to draw on.  

TIP: FUNDAMENTAL  Trackers: Shine So Bright, Motakhayyel