Caspian Caviar Cup - Cheltenham 1.50
CHELTENHAM 1.50 Caspian Caviar Gold Cup - C1 G3 - 2 miles 4 1/2 F - Going - Good to Soft - 17 run (no rain)
A month on from The Paddy Power Gold Cup, run over this distance, Cheltenham stages another big handicap chase and many will, as in previous years, look to that race run 4 weeks ago for form clues for this contest. The big difference between that race, however, and this one is that we are now racing on The New Course which is a ‘stiffer’ track and poses a slightly different test with a longer run from the home turn really asking questions of a horse’s stamina.
It is very difficult to put a line through many of these when trying to draw up a short-list for final consideration but one major consideration at Cheltenham is always proven course form and, here, we are looking for form on The New Course in particular.
CEPAGE has run over this track 5 times already and has a decent record here. He won over course-and-distance on Festival Trials Day in January, off just 1lb lower, and has finished placed in this particular race in the last two years. He didn't stay the 3m+ trip when last seen in The Ultima Chase in March and this step back in trip is more suitable. He likes plenty of cut in the ground, which he should get here and has run well first time out in the last two seasons (finishing 2nd to a pair of Grade 1 winners) and, although he may be vulnerable to an improver lurking in here somewhere, he looks a rock-solid each-way player with the enhanced places on offer.
One feature of many chases run over this track is the apparent advantage of racing near to the pace. Horses like Frodon, Warthog, Simply The Betts, Min and the aforementioned CEPAGE have all triumphed on the track after racing on the pace throughout and it can be a real advantage if getting into a good rhythm. There are a number in here who like to race prominently and one of those is WINDSOR AVENUE who runs for Brian Ellison. He has had just 5 starts over fences and in his 4 completed races has never finished out of the first two, winning twice. Always held in high regard by his trainer, he finished 2nd on seasonal reappearance, at Carlisle, behind the progressive and impressive Imperial Aura. That horse is now rated at 163, following a win in a Grade 2 at Ascot, and WINDSOR AVENUE was only beaten just over 2 lengths in receipt of 4lbs. Taken at face value, he could, therefore, be very well-handicapped off 148 in here. It's not always as simple as that, of course, but he is one in here who could have a lot of improvement still to come. He jumped well at Carlisle and will not mind what the ground is like. He doesn't have any experience of this course, which is a negative, but he has won at undulating tracks like Carlisle and Sedgefield so may be suited by the ups and downs of this venue.
Another with a positive record on The New Course is MIDNIGHT SHADOW. He won the Dipper Novices Chase here on New Years Day, when taking advantage of the fall of subsequent RSA Chase hero Champ, and, then, followed that up with a very solid performance in The Marsh Chase when finishing 6th. He has also won over hurdles on The New Course and tends to perform best at this time of year. Indeed, in the period 1st December to 1st January inclusive his record is 4 wins and a 2nd place finish from just 5 starts. this suggests he usually needs his seasonal debut and he has already raced this term when finishing down the field in The Old Roan Chase at Aintree. His chase mark is still 7lbs below his hurdles rating, which suggests that there is still some improvement to come too. The absence of usual jockey Danny Cook may be a negative but, whilst this is a stable I struggle to call correctly and, dare I say it, trust, I think this 7 year-old can run a big race here.
At bigger prices, two who are of interest to me are BENATAR and SOUTHFIELD STONE. The former is a horse with plenty of latent talent but he does have a tendency to race keenly and has pulled away his chances on more than one occasion in the past. He may, however, settle better here with the likely strong pace. He has raced over this course-and-distance once before and that came in the 2018 renewal of The JLT Chase at The Festival. He ran very well that day to finish 3rd , despite suffering a season-ending injury, and that form alone would put him in here with a very strong chance and, although not having been seen since disappointing when sent off favourite for a race at Ascot last January, he has gone well fresh in the past so the long break should not be too off-putting. The trainer, who is in good form right now, is another one who is, very often, difficult to assess properly but, if he has the him fit enough, he could easily out-run his current odds having also been dropped 7lbs after his long absence.
Although currently the longest-priced of the Nicholls' trio of runners, SOUTHFIELD STONE is a consistent performer who has run well twice on the Old Course here this season. On the first occasion, he got the better of COOLE CODY whilst last time out he was no match for the progressive PROTEKTORAT, finishing 2nd whilst trying to concede 3lbs. He has the services of Bryony Frost here who has a fantastic strike-rate of 43% over these fences and is another who likes to race up with the pace.
The likely ground conditions and the relative inexperience of large field handicaps mean that the Paul Nicholls' charge just misses the final cut and BENATAR joins MIDNIGHT SHADOW as 1/2pt 'tracker' bets.
TIPS - Cepage + Windsor Avenue / Trackers Midnight Shadow + Bentar