Cheltenham 2.15
David - Elite - Cheltenham 2.15 - Paddy Power Chase
This race is the highlight so far of the National Hunt season and, on paper, it looks a strong renewal and, as is the norm for this race, it is a very competitive contest.
The race is often touted as a good one for second-season chasers, although in recent seasons it has been won by horses with more experience rather more than perhaps the previous decade. They usually go a good gallop and the strong pace does mean that the ability to stay further than this trip is a good attribute and, of course, we have seen many a horse wilt up that famous hill so course form is very important also.
The forecast is currently showing some heavy rain during Saturday so it could be that the race is run on softer ground than is currently advertised. This further adds to the need for extra stamina reserves but also means we need a horse that can deal with plenty of cut in the ground.
The weights are headed this year by ASO and Venetia Williams’ likeable 10 year-old is returning to handicaps for the first time since winning here on New Years Day 2019. He has competed in higher grades since then with the undoubted highlight being his fine 2nd place finish in The Ryaniar Chase, behind Frodon, last March. Although top weight, he is back down to the mark he won from in that New Years Day race so he is capable of a bold show. He is the oldest in the race, and finished 4th in the 2016 renewal, and, with his assured jumping an asset, he could easily grab one of the enhanced places on offer although, for win purposes he may find one or two potential improvers too good for him.
Of the second season chasers on show, the highest rated is SIMPLY THE BETTS who runs here for, one of the rising stars in the training ranks, Harry Whittingham. This horse enjoyed a fantastic first campaign over fences, winning 4 of his 5 starts and finishing 2nd on the other occasion. The last of those wins came here at The Festival when winning The Plate, in soft ground, and he had 4 of today’s opponents in behind. He has gone up 8lbs for that win, which certainly makes things difficult for him here, but the trainer highlighted this as the next target following his win in March. He has won both chase starts at this venue but it is worth noting that they both came over the New Course and he is yet to try his luck over this sharper Old Course. On both occasions he seemed to out-stay his opponents up the hill and he certainly won’t mind any softening of the ground as most of his good performances in his career have come when the mud is flying.
The horse beaten into 2nd by SIMPLY THE BETTS in March was HAPPY DIVA and she won this race last year, when a pick for this service. I’ve made it known in the past that this 9 year-old is probably my favourite mare in training and her performance in this race last year, and in defeat in March, illustrates why. She is so game and a very consistent performer. In her 20-race chase career she has completed on 18 occasions and each time she has finished in the first 5 (winning 5 and finishing 2nd on 9 occasions). One of her two non-completions came in this race two years ago when she was travelling really well before being unluckily brought-down 4 from home. She them made amends last year but is 8lbs higher in the ratings so it will be tougher. She has had the same preparation as last year, running in a listed contest at Wetherby, and should be sharper for the reappearance, and is 6lbs better off with SIMPLY THE BETTS from their meeting at The Festival. This is likely to be her last handicap, with connections looking towards mares' races, culminating in the new chase at The Festival, but she is sure to be cherry ripe for it. She enjoys soft ground, so the forecast rain will not be an inconvenience, and looks a solid each-way option at the current prices. Whether her mark is now high enough to prevent a repeat win, however, is another question.
Back in 2nd last year was BRELAN D’AS and he reappears here on 3lbs better terms with the winner, having been beaten by just a neck at the line. He was, then, well touted for the big handicap chase back here in December but lost all chance in that contest when clouting the 3rd fence from home. He has not been seen since but, hailing from the yard of Paul Nicholls, he will surely not be found wanting for fitness. The run in this race last year, plus a previous 3rd place effort in The Grand Annual at The Festival, shows that he will not be phased by the hustle and bustle of a big-field handicap. He is normally a reliable jumper and has only parted company with his jockey once in his career and he goes well in soft ground. He may need to come down a few pounds in the handicap however before winning again.
Paul Nicholls also runs the 5 year-old SAINT SONNET in this race. He has been the ante-post favourite for this race for a couple of weeks and, at the time of writing, is still very prominent in the market. This ex-French listed winner is very difficult to assess, having only had 2 runs since coming to these shores. The first was at Catterick, where he won easily at long odds-on, and the second came in The Marsh Chase at The Festival where he finished 7th. The form of the Catterick race has been boosted by the runner-up winning twice subsequently whilst it is unusual for Nicholls to throw young chasers into Grade 1 contests as early as he did with this one in March so he must be well-regarded. His mark of 147 certainly doesn’t look too harsh and, as with his stable-mate, he won’t be short of fitness on seasonal debut, but his relative inexperience in races of this type is of concern and I’m not sure I want to be getting involved at his current price.
Also running in The Marsh Chase back in the early spring was MISTER FISHER and he finished a very creditable 4th there. That was only his 4th career start over fences and he had previously won 2 and finished 2nd in the other (on chasing debut). Nicky Henderson does not have the greatest record in this race, and it is 17 years since his last success with Fondmort, but this one has been another well supported in the last few days. His record after a break, however, is not great and, whilst he may prove to be better than this mark in time his price is really too short for me based on what he has achieved so far.
Back in January, MISTER FISHER won a 4-runner Novice Chase at Doncaster and that day he got the better of AL DANCER by 1 length. Nigel Twiston-Davies’s charge re-opposes here and is 1lb better off at the weights. He also has the benefit of a run this term. That run came last month at Newton abbot when he won over this trip, getting the better of Master Tommytucker whilst conceding 6lbs. That was the first time the horse had raced beyond 2 miles and he saw the trip out really well. The runner-up has since franked the form by winning at Huntingdon earlier this week. He has been raised 3lbs for that win, which makes things a little harder here, but he has got the all-important course form around here. He won his fencing debut on this course last October before finishing 2nd inn the next month to the subsequent Arkle winner whist trying to concede 10lbs. He only finished 5th in The Arkle itself but did not get the clearest of runs and, whilst he wouldn’t have won, he may have finished much closer with a more trouble-free run. Having won The Betfair Hurdle last year, he is clearly not phased by big-field handicaps and soft ground should, also, not be an issue. On the form book, there is really not much between AL DANCER and MISTER FISHER and, yet, the Twiston-Davies horse, at the time of writing, is currently trading at roughly twice the price. The trainer has a good record in this race.
Whilst we were lucky enough to find the 1-2 in this race last year, things may have been different if the race favourite hadn’t slithered on landing at the second last fence when just starting to mount a challenge. That favourite was SLATE HOUSE and he was sent off as a very short 4/1 price that day. He lines up again this year and is a much bigger price this time. Following that mishap, 12 months ago, SLATE HOUSE won his next two outings, at Huntingdon and then at Kempton in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase (formerly The Feltham) on Boxing Day. He is 5lbs higher than last year but, if he had stayed on his feet and won or even placed, he may have gone up even higher in the ratings. This is his first race back in handicap company since and, whilst he disappointed in them both, his last 2 races last season were run over trips in excess of 3 miles. The drop back in distance should suit him better and it could be that he is a better horse at this time of year. He won on seasonal debut last year, over course-and-distance, and his stable, after a sluggish start to the season are just starting to show signs of clicking into gear with 3 winners from their last 11 runners in the past week.
The Tizzard stable fire a second bullet at this race with THE RUSSIAN DOYEN. Unlike his stable-mate, he has had a prep run for this and that came in a hurdle race at Fontwell last month. He finished 3rd on his first start in 347 days, staying on nicely, and that should hopefully put him spot on for this. He only raced once last season when he suffered an injury at Aintree and had to be pulled up but in 2018-19 he raced 4 times over fences, winning twice, and finished the season with a good 4th place finish in The Listed Novices Handicap at The Festival behind A Plus Tard. That was a good run and a repeat of that form could give him an each-way chance here as he runs off 3lbs lower.
Go back 15-25 years and this race was farmed by Martin Pipe on a regular basis but, since taking over the licence, his son, David, has won the race just once. This year he tries to add to the victory of Great Endeavour with new stable-recruit SIRUH DU LAC. Previously with Nick Williams this 7 year-old was given wind surgery over the summer and comes into this season for his new yard trying to get back to the sort of form that saw him record a perfect 4 from 4 in 2018/19, culminating in a win at The Festival. He rose 27lbs in the handicap on the back of that season but remains on the same mark as he competed from in last year’s race despite 2 non-completions in the intervening period. He raced prominently for a period in last year’s race before being pulled up and then took a crashing fall in the race won by SIMPLY THE BETTS at The Festival when leading. He may not have won that day but his performance was, at least more like the form he had showed the previous season. He is the horse most likely to cut out the running and if the wind surgery has the desired effect, and the heavy fall in March has not left any scars, he is one who could be in the shake-up running up the hill.
Another who pulled up in this race last year is SPIRITOFTHEGAMES. That was a rare poor run from Dan Skelton’s charge and he has run a number of solid races in big handicaps since going chasing two years ago. He has, however, only got his head in front over fences and that was on chasing debut in a 4-runner contest. He has made 6 of his 10 chase starts at Cheltenham and, after finishing 3rd behind SIRUH DU LAC at the 2019 Festival, he finished 6th in the race won by SIMPLY THE BETTS in March. He, also, came 2nd in the big Handicap Chase at the December meeting last year when he possibly hit the front too soon and idled allowing the ill-fated Warthog to get back up the inside to deny him on the line. Like SLATE HOUSE, he is a much bigger price for this contest than he was for last year but, in contrast, he is 2lbs lower in the handicap. It’s difficult to understand why he under-performed last year, and his trainer had no explanation, but it would not seem as if it was because of it being his first run after a break as he had won first time in each of his previous 4 seasons.
When looking at his past form with the likes of SIMPLY THE BETTS, BRELAN D’AS and SIRUH DU LAC, he is potentially well-treated here.
A horse enjoying a new lease of life over fences is COOLE CODY who has really thrived since joining the yard of Evan Williams. His 3 runs have produced a win and a couple of 2nd place finishes. The latter of these came last month when he ran a very good race behind Southfield Stone. The form of his previous run was franked earlier this week when the 3rd horse home won easily at Taunton, whilst the form was also indirectly boosted by the win of El Presente in last Saturday’s Badger Beers Chase. The horse is versatile with regards to ground and won a handicap hurdle off a mark just 1lb lower at this meeting 3 years ago. He could easily out-run his odds here although the current form of the trainer is a slight concern.
At bigger odds, an interesting contender is DOMAINE DE L’ISLE, especially if the rain falls in any great quantity. This 7 year-old came over from France to join the yard of Sean Curran just 18 months ago and since then he has run just 5 times over fences for this yard. He won 3 of those, on the bounce, last winter going up 24lbs in the process. It was the last of those that was the most significant as he beat a decent field at Ascot, in heavy ground, which included HAPPY DIVA. He is 4lbs worse off here but he did finish more than 9 lengths ahead of her. He has been given a ‘sighter’ of the course, if not the fences, when running in a novice hurdle here last month and, although he was a well beaten 4th, the form of the race was franked here on Friday when the winner triumphed once more. The idea of the race was clearly a prep run to blow away the cobwebs and he will strip fitter here. The stable don’t have many horses but they can target races and their last 2 runners both won this week so there are no issues on that score.
Whilst it is difficult to conclusively rule out any of the horses at the top of the market, I really don’t want to be playing at the odds being offered given the competitive nature of this race. The second season chasers have, mostly, been well found in the market and any of them could turn out to be future champions but most are having their first run of the campaign off relatively high marks and, in all likelihood, in stamina-sapping conditions. I want to take on the top of the market with horses at nice each-way prices and, hopefully, with the enhanced place terms on offer, we can make a profit that way.
First of all, SLATE HOUSE looked a chaser going places at this time last year and, whilst his star has been dimmed by what happened in the spring, he has grade 1 winning form and, importantly, form over this course-and-distance. He relishes soft ground too so any rain will not harm his chances. He is more than double the price he was last year and looks good each-way value.
For a second pick, I must admit I was very tempted by both AL DANCER and SPIRITOFTHEGAMES, whilst SIRUH DU LAC was also on the short-list, but, in the end, a combination of heart and head leads me back to HAPPY DIVA. She is ultra-consistent and backing her often guarantees you get a good run for your money. Her mark may mean that one or two will turn out to be better handicapped but, providing no mishap befalls her in the race, I struggle to see her out of the first 6 places and, therefore, she looks banker each-way material at a venue she clearly goes well at.
At bigger odds, I want to take a swing of the bat at DOMAINE DE L’ISLE. If the forecast rain arrives in the volumes at the upper end of the estimated scale, this could turn into a slog and he could out-run his big odds in those circumstances.
TIP - Slate House / TRACKERS - Happy Diva + Domaine De L'Isle