DC - Elite Service Saturday 18th January
Haydock 2.40:
The racing is fairly quiet this week-end in the UK and big fields are at a premium. At present, there are 10 set to go to post in The Peter Marsh Chase and it is the highlight of Haydock’s card. Several firms still offer enhanced places despite the number of runners.
The race is usually run in very testing conditions and that is set to be the case again this year so it may turn into a real slog and the horses will need to stay every yard of the 3mile 1 ½ furlong trip.
The top weight in here, and the class angle in the race, is DEFINITELY RED. The horse has won several grade 2 contests and has competed in The Cheltenham Gold Cup in the last 2 years. The aim this season is The Grand National and he ran a nice rehearsal for that last time out when finishing 4th in The Becher Chase off top weight. He runs off 1lb lower here and there is no doubt that he is more than capable of running a big race here even with the weight on his back. He looks a solid each-way proposition.
Next in at the weights, and the current favourite for the race, is ACTING LASS. He is a lightly-raced 9 year-old who has clearly had his issues in the past but he has run 2 very good races in the last month or so. He is best in soft ground, so conditions are in his favour here, with 4 of his 5 career wins coming when the ground was officially soft and his 2nd place run last time, at Ascot, coming on heavy ground. He battled well that day but did have a hard race and it remains to be seen if that has left a mark on this fragile horse with him coming out again just 4 weeks later. Harry Fry does have a good strike-rate at this time of year, however, and the trainer's form at Haydock is also good.
Only one horse in this race has winning form over fences at Haydock and that is the Sue Smith-trained VINTAGE CLOUDS. Owned by Trevor Hemmings, this horse was long thought of as a Grand National horse but, having fell at the 1st fence in last year’s race, he, then showed a real dislike for the Aintree fences in The Becher Chase last month and was pulled-up. The National plan has now been firmly shelved and they now look to be focussing him on staying chases elsewhere. Although he has only won 2 chases, from 21 attempts, he has run some excellent races in this kind of contest in the past. 6 of his chase starts have come at this venue and he has either won or been placed in all 5 of his completed races. The one exception came in this contest 3 years ago when he was running well before falling 3 out behind eventual winner Bristol De Mai. He, possibly, wants a slightly stiffer test of stamina than this but the track seems to suit him and the heavy ground will make this a test. His last run, when 3rd here behind the improving Lord Du Mesnil in The Tommy Whittle Chase, was encouraging and he has been dropped 2lbs to now sit back on his last winning mark (when successful over course-and-distance in November 2018, beating subsequent Scottish National winner Takingrisks). The form of The Tommy Whittle has been franked since with the winner obliging again at Haydock 10 days later. The stable sent out the winner of this race last year, Wakanda, who was a winning tip for this service, and Sue Smith has won it 4 times in total so it is a contest they like to target.
The likely pace-setter in this race is CHAMPERS ON ICE and this 10 year-old is returning to fences for the first time since running in the 4-mile National Hunt Chase at The Cheltenham Festival in 2017. He has only run 4 times, in total, over fences but has been running well over hurdles this season off his lower hurdles mark. Ground conditions should not be an issue for the horse, and the combination of cheek-pieces and a tongue-tie do seem to have had a positive effect, but he does still have it all to prove back over the larger obstacles.
Two horses line-up here, as their first preference, having also been declared at Ascot. I’m often interested in horses who are doubly-declared and they are always worth a closer look. The first of these is RED INDIAN and he is, currently, the outsider of the field.
He is another with just 4 runs under his belt as a chaser but he did run some good races as a hurdler when in the care of Ben Pauling. He won on chasing debut, for his new yard, before being far from disgraced when 4th in the big novice chase on Kempton’s Boxing Day card, in December 2018, behind La Bague Au Roi, Topofthegame and Santini. He was, subsequently, well beaten at The Cheltenham Festival but the major plus for him here is the ground. In 3 runs on heavy going he has won twice and finished 2nd on the other occasion. Conditional jockey of the moment, Ben Jones, takes off 5lbs which is, also, a plus.
FLYING ANGEL also has this as first preference. He is another horse who seems best suited in conditions where the mud is flying but his best form is all at distances short of 3 miles so he really does have to prove he has the stamina for this trip. That said, he did perform well over this distance when 5th in The Ultima at last season’s Festival and he is usually an assured jumper.
Another horse who likes testing conditions is PRIME VENTURE who runs here for Evan Williams. He is yet to win from 9 chase starts but ran a very decent race last time when finishing 4th in The Welsh Grand National. He also finished 4th in The Midlands National last March and both races came on heavy ground. His jockey, and the trainer’s daughter, takes 7lbs off his back which means he is set to carry less than 10 stone but this may just be coming a little too soon after what was a very demanding race at Chepstow last time.
The two horses at the bottom of the card are both having to run off marks that are above their official ratings and both are fairly lightly-raced, for their ages, over fences.
MIDNIGHT TUNE comes here chasing a hat-trick, following heavy-ground victories at Uttoxeter and Exeter and she has been well-supported in the latter part of this week in the market. She comes here instead of the mares hurdle at Ascot, for which she also held an entry, and her trainer has stated that this has been a long-held plan. The trainer is enjoying a fine season, and has already had more winners than in the whole of 2018/19, and has continued his good form this month. Despite winning over a trip just a little further than 2 miles last times, the mare, who jockey Aiden Coleman describes as “a tractor” looks to be a thorough stayer. She has only raced 5 times over fences and, in her 4 completed starts, she has won twice and finished 2nd twice. All 4 of those contests came in races for mares only, and she does have to prove she can perform in mixed company, but she does look progressive and seems to thrive in heavy ground. Her low weight, in the conditions, is a plus and her jockey is, in my opinion, one of the most under-rated in the weighing room.
CLAUD AND GOLDIE is the other horse running off a mark higher than his official rating and he comes here after a win in a Kelso Veterans Handicap. This is horse is now 11 years old and, yet, has had only 7 runs under rules in his life. He is a winning pointer over 3 miles but does have it to prove here.
Another relatively lightly-raced horse is GERONIMO with just 6 starts over fences and just 10 in total in his career. In those 10 starts, the horse has completed on 9 occasions and each time he has finished in the first 3 home. The one exception was last season’s Scottish National when a combination of the lively ground, a bleed from the nose and lameness saw the horse being pulled up. He returned this season with a win last month at Newcastle over an inadequate 2 ½ miles. That was one of 11 wins so far for ‘comeback’ jockey Ryan Mania and the combination of jockey and trainer Sandy Thomson (his step father-in-law) is proving to be a fruitful one in recent weeks with both enjoying a strike-rate of 42% in the last fortnight. Their 12 runners has resulted in 5 wins, 3 runners-up and a couple of 3rd placed horses so stable form could not be much better.
The horse has been rising steadily up the handicap but he does seem to still be improving and the ground looks to be in his favour too. He stays further than this trip, having winning form over further, and his best form is at similar tracks to this with wins at Ayr and Newcastle.
When the ground is heavy it can often pay to race handily and, for that reason, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that likely front-runners CHAMPERS ON ICE and MIDNIGHT TUNE are still in there with a chance up the final home straight. The long straight and long run-in may play to the strengths of stout stayers like DEFINITELY RED, VINTAGE CLOUDS and GERONIMO however whilst ACTING LASS, who is usually held up, does not want to be in front too soon and would have to be played quite late up the run-in if in contention.
Whilst I think DEFINITELY RED could have the class to triumph here off top-weight, and is a very solid each-way option, I think the race could be between MIDNIGHT TUNE, VINTAGE CLOUDS and GERONIMO and I will take a chance on the last pair here. VINTAGE CLOUDS is now back to his last winning mark, has very good form at the track, and represents a trainer and jockey with excellent records in the race whilst GERONIMO could still be unexposed in this discipline, will relish the test of stamina and hails from a yard in flying form. MIDNIGHT TUNE would be first reserve should either of the main selections not run.
TIPS - Vintage Clouds + Geronimo - both 1 point e/w