David - Grand Sefton - Aintree 3.15
Aintree 3.15 Grand Sefton - 2 mies 5 1/2 furlongs - NATIONAL Course - Soft - 18 run
There are not many better sights in NH racing than seeing horses jump the fences on Aintree’s Grand National course and this will be the second race of the day to take place over that famous track.
The fences are nowhere near as tough an examination as they used to be but they still take some jumping and the test that horses face here is unique. With so many in here who like to race prominently, this could be run at a decent pace and that will make the accurate jumping of these fences even more important.
Given the unique nature of this course, it can be a big advantage if a horse has proven itself over these obstacles before and there a number in here who have done just that. Indeed, there are 5 horses who ran in last year’s renewal of this race re-appearing here.
Of those 5, the only one who did not complete the race was FEDERICI but he does have previous form over these fences, having finished 6th in this race in 2016 and then creditable 4th and 5th placed finishes in the longer Becher Chase on the same card in the following two years. He ran well for a long way last year, leading for much of the race, before weakening out of contention in the latter stages of the race. That was his seasonal debut, however, plus he was given wind surgery immediately afterwards which may indicate that they thought there was an issue that also contributed to him folding tamely. He has won 3 of his 7 races since, many of them over further than this, and arrives here just 1lb higher than 12 months ago. He clearly jumps these fences and he goes well in testing conditions so he will not mind the ground. It will be no surprise to see him out-run his odds and he is on the short-list of each-way contenders.
Of the 4 who finished last year, the best placed of those was BEAU BAY who was 3rd. He is 1lb lower in the ratings this year and gets the benefit of a further 3lbs from his claiming jockey. Last year was his 3rd spin over these obstacles so he knows what to expect here and he arrives this time around following a respectable run last time out at Wetherby where he finished 5th on seasonal reappearance. That should have blown away any cobwebs and he is another for whom soft ground holds no fears. He has won off a higher mark than this in the past and the jockey and him seem to have built up a good understanding since being partnered together for the first time in the race following last year’s renewal. He is another who could out-run his odds for a trainer who knows how to target these races.
One place behind 12 months ago, in 4th, was FLYING ANGEL and he was sent off as favourite on that occasion. He lines up here off a 3lb lower mark but, in addition, gets the benefit of his jockey’s 5lb claim so is, effectively, 8lbs lower. This means, with the jockey’s allowance taken into consideration, he is now back below his mark for his last win, which came at Ascot last November over this trip. He has been a regular visitor to Aintree over the years, running here 10 times already, and has completed on each of his 3 attempts over these fences. Given the trainer’s record, it is hard to ignore any horse he sends out over these fences and it may be worth ignoring the horse’s 3 runs since last year’s renewal as they were all over 3miles or more and this trip does seem to be just about his limit. He doesn’t fall very often although he can be a bit sloppy at his fences but, if jumping ok, he is definitely another for the short list here.
Back in 5th last year was DIDERO VALLIS and, despite being officially ‘1lb wrong at the weights’, he runs this year off a 2lb lower mark. He followed last year’s run up with a decent 2nd place in The Roland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby, over 3 miles, and may have needed his reappearance last month, also over 3 miles, at Ascot. It is at this time of the year, when the mud is really flying, that Venetia Williams’ horses tend to start to fire and in the last week alone she has seen two thirds of her entrants finish in the places. This is a race she has won in the past and she will be hoping the 7 year-old can overcome the poor record that horses of his age have in this race in recent times. Previously a novice hurdler with Willie Mullins, he has only raced 9 times over fences and is still relatively unexposed compared to many in this contest. He looks to be a sound jumper, and handles soft ground well, and he has been extremely well supported in the market in the last 24 hours.
The final entrant doing battle 12 months on from his appearance last year is TOUCH KICK. He was trained by Paul Nicholls last year and ran in the colours of Trevor Hemmings but, after the owner chose to downsize his string, he is now with a new trainer and makes his debut for Simon West. He is 1lb lower than last year but is still 6lbs above his last winning mark. He is another sound jumper but does look to have a bit on his plate here off this mark.
The former King George winner, MIGHT BITE, is an intriguing entry in this as he steps back to his shortest trip in 4 years. Clearly when at his best, he would probably chew this field up and spit them out off a mark of 150 but he has looked in decline in the past two years and can’t be relied on to take to these fences. Connections say he has schooled well at home over similar fences but there is no substitute for facing the real thing in the heat of battle and we won’t know for sure if they can revive him until he has jumped a few in this contest. He has won in testing ground before, when his class has undoubtedly got him through, but he does not want conditions this soft, ideally, and that is another reason why I have to oppose him. He’s undoubtedly talented, if a little on the quirky side, and he did run well for a long way on seasonal debut last month but, whilst he may leave me with egg on my face, I think there are better options open to us in this contest.
The current favourite, at the time of writing is HUNTSMAN SON. This 10 year-old is fairly lightly raced for one of his age and has had two lengthy spells on the sidelines in his career to date so has clearly not been the easiest to keep sound. He bounced back from his latest mammoth absence (538 days) at the end of October when winning at Wetherby in a listed contest where he got the better of a decent field. He has gone up 9lbs for that win, which looks a little harsh to me, and he does seem to prefer a sounder surface to this. These facts, allied with his lack of experience over these fences, do mean that he is worth taking on.
HUNTSMAN SON raced in the 2019 Novice Chase at The Cheltenham Festival and finished 9th. Ahead of him, in 5th, that day was SPRINGTOWN LAKE and Philip Hobbs’ 8 year-old finds himself 7lbs better off here. He is a horse who is proven in deep ground and produced a career best when winning by 20 lengths at Warwick, on heavy going, in February. His seasonal reappearance came here, on the Mildmay course, when he finished 2nd behind MODUS who re-opposes here. His mark is unchanged here which means he is 9lbs better off with the winner, having been beaten by 8 lengths. His combination with jockey, Tom O’Brien, is a good one with their 4 races together producing a win and two placed efforts so far. He is yet to prove himself over these fences but if the going were to get really heavy then he is one of the more likely ones. Philip Hobbs has had 4 winners from his last 15 runners whilst another 3 have placed so his horses are clearly in good heart at present.
The aforementioned MODUS is one of two entries here for Paul Nicholls and the trainer will be looking to build on his 3 winners from the last 7 years. MODUS win last time came off a much reduced mark and was after 465 days off the track. He is up 9lbs here which makes life much tougher but he did win well on that occasion and may improve for that outing. He will be ok in the ground but he sometimes doesn’t impress with his jumping and this is his first attempt over these fences.
The second Nicholls horse is SAMETEGAL and he has been over these fences before. Indeed, he ran in this race 3 years ago when finishing 3rd off a mark 2lbs higher than here. He is an 11 year-old now and is another who has had several long lay-offs in his career so has not raced as much as the average horse at that age. He is without a win in more than 4 years now but he has run some very solid races in the intervening period. Many of those races have come over 3 miles or slightly further and that is a distance he has never won over so this step back in trip, in testing ground, could be ideal. He has already run twice this season, finishing 3rd in both races and travelled well in both contests before just seemingly running out of gas in the final stages. His record as a chaser is a very consistent one. He has completed in 13 of his 14 starts and in those 13 races he has finished out of the first 4 on just one occasion. He has the excellent Bryony Frost on board for the first time here and he looks a solid each-way proposition.
Down at the bottom of the weights and, in fact, 1lb out of the handicap is SWIFT CRUSADER who represents the in-form Samuel Drinkwater. He is a P2P winner over 3 miles but has done most of his racing under rules at the minimum distance of 2 miles and in lower grades than this. This should prove too competitive for him but I was tempted to take a closer look on the basis that Tom Scudamore was, once again, in the plate and riding at 10 stone. He did that last week, of course, when winning on Cloth Cap and the previous time he had bothered to ‘sweat down’ to the minimum weight was when winning the Cross-Country race at Cheltenham’s last meeting. It may be of no significance but I did, at least, think it merited a second glance.
This does look a decent renewal of this race and there are a number in here of some interest to me. The top of the market is largely dominated by horses who have yet to prove that they act over these fences and I do like to lean towards course experience here. Obviously, ‘course virgins’ do win this race, and last year provided us with one such example, but I think there is some value to be had with some who are already proven over these obstacles on this course.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking a chance on the form of last year’s race. Whilst BEAU BAY came 3rd, and did best of those running again here, he possibly benefitted from the collapse of a strong early pace and was able to pass horses in the latter stages of the race. Two of those were FLYING ANGEL and DIDERO VALLIS who both raced prominently near the pace for much of the race and, possibly, paid a price for doing so.
The former is now 8lbs lower and is back at this preferred trip for the first time since last year’s race whilst the latter was only a 6 year-old last year and is now 2lbs lower. He goes well in soft ground and his trainer is in flying form at present. I must put my cards on the table and confess that I backed this horse at 16/1 on Thursday night and, since then, his price has more than halved. He was either 'over-priced' or somebody, somewhere must think he’s going to run a big race. At the time of writing, he is still a backable each-way price, however, and this sound jumper looks to have been aimed at this since this time last year.
FEDERICI is a big price and I can see him out-running his odds under Brian Hughes and a light weight and, so, I wouldn’t put anybody off throwing a bit of loose change at that one with the enhanced places but a couple of runners from big yards that it might be worth splitting a half-stakes tracker bet on with enhanced places are SAMETEGAL and SPRINGTOWN LAKE. The former looks a solid each-way selection, given he has form over the fences and is ultra-consistent, whilst the latter, despite having to prove he acts over this unique test, looks reasonably well-handicapped and will relish any further deterioration in ground conditions.
TIPS - Flying Angel + Didero Vallis / TRACKERS - Sametgal + Springtown Lake (massively enhanced place race - see top for best offers)