ELITE - Newbury 3.35
The Betfair Hurdle is Britain’s most valuable handicap hurdle and this Grade 3 contest, which is run over 2 miles, returns to Newbury this year having been re-scheduled to Ascot 12 months ago following the cancellation of this meeting due to the equine flu outbreak.
A maximum field of 24 runners are set to go post and, as is usually the case, the race looks devilishly difficult to solve. We do, however, like a challenge on this service and, with enhanced places available, the rewards could be great if finding the winner.
For those that like to follow the trends, they point very strongly in favour of young, lightly-raced horses with all of the last 10 renewals being won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years old. Novices, also, have a good recent record with 7 of the last 11 winners falling into that category. With the prize money on offer, it is not surprising that some deliberately target this race with young novices rather than trying to win novice events where the winnings are less lucrative.
An important factor to take into consideration here are the likely ground conditions. The dry weather for much of this week means that the ground has dried out at Newbury and is likely to be a mixture of good to soft and good ground by the time the race is run. Much of the racing this winter has been taking place in soft conditions so we have to be very careful when looking into the form of some the horses in here. We probably want something that has proven itself on a sounder surface.
The current favourite NOT SO SLEEPY is one horse who has been running, and winning, in soft underfoot conditions this winter and he will find the ground very different here to his last two runs where he has taken apart decent fields with his bold front-running style. His second win, just before Christmas, put him in The Champion Hurdle frame in some eyes and, having gone up a total 22lbs for those wins, if he does triumph here off a mark of 144 he would have to be taken seriously for that. He was a good performer on the flat, winning a Dee Stakes and finishing 4th in The Cesarewitch in soft ground, but has now won 3 of his 5 starts over hurdles with his other win coming on good ground last February so he is not totally dependent on the mud flying. All of his runs over hurdles, so far, have come on right-handed tracks so it remains to be seen if he is as effective this way round. For much of this week, his trainer had been uncertain over his participation but the lure of a £100K bonus for winning this and the Ascot race in December may just have proved too tempting.
Close second in the betting at the time of writing is MACK THE MAN and he is one of a couple of runners in here for Evan Williams. This 6 year-old has had just 6 runs over hurdles and, after an unispiring novice season last year, he has won both starts this campaign with the form of both races working out well. Based on the subsequent exploits of several of the horses he beat in those races, he could be very well-handicapped here and he gets in with a nice low weight. The big issue, however, could be the ground as he is yet to race on anything better than good to soft and his trainer has stated that he needs plenty of cut to be seen at his best.
His stable-mate, however, QUOI DE NEUF will be suited by the drying ground. He is another with just 6 career runs over hurdles and comes here after being brought down last time in the race won by NOT SO SLEEPY at Ascot in December. Prior to that he had performed well when finishing 4th in The Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. He is well regarded by connections but stable jockey, Adam Wedge, prefers his stable-mate. That said, he does get the services of current jockey’s championship leader, Brian Hughes, so it can hardly be said to be a negative. The trainer has had 9 winners in the last 10 days (from just 31 runners) so he is good form and it’s difficult to write off the chances of either of his entrants.
Another trainer with 2 entries in this year’s renewal is Nicky Henderson. He has run 47 horses in this contest, so far, this century and has won with 4 of them. He also won the race in 1998 to give him 5 winners overall. The first of his runners is the 5 year-old mare NEVER ADAPT and she has been well-supported in the market during this week. She has only run 4 times in her life and has run with great promise on both of her starts this season. After a long absence of over a year, she shaped encouragingly when 3rd at Cheltenham in December and, then, followed that up with a very good win at Kempton 4 weeks ago. She raced very keenly on both of those occasions and her jockey, Barry Geraghty will be eager to bury her in this big field in the hope that there is a strong pace on. There are several in here who like to get on with things up front so he may get his wish. She has gone up 10lbs for that latest win, which makes life tougher, but, if settling, she could go close for a trainer and owner (JP McManus) who like to target this race.
JP McManus has another horse in this and that is the Irish raider CIEL DE NEIGE. He hails from the all-powerful yard of Willie Mullins and is the only entrant from that side of the Irish Sea. It is 15 years since an Irish-trained horse won this race (Essex) and Wille Mullins has had 16 runners in that time with only one horse placed so, whilst punters will no doubt latch on to the ‘Mullins-factor’ his record in this contest is not good. The fact that the horse has the owner it does, however, does mean that it should not be readily dismissed, despite it looking like the second-string based on jockey bookings. He ran very well on stable debut in last season’s Fred Winter Hurdle at Cheltenham and was subsequently switched to the ownership of McManus in November. After running well again in a big-field handicap at Fairyhouse he was, on the face of it, rather disappointing when getting beat at long odds-on over Christmas at Limerick. He was, however, rather unlucky that day and should have won. He runs off a similar mark here to his Irish mark which surely can’t be a common occurrence for a Mullins horse let alone one owned by JP. The ground may be quicker than he has encountered so far in his career but he is one for the short list.
The top weight here is GUMBALL and, despite still being just a 6 year-old, he has raced 14 times over hurdles already. He is one of those in here who could challenge NOT SO SLEEPY for the lead and help make this a strongly-run race. He will like the drying ground but his exploits this season have seen him rise 14lbs in the handicap and, despite his excellent rider’s 3lb claim, he faces a tough task here. He has shown a liking for big-field handicaps as illustrated by his close 2nd in The Greatwood Hurdle in November but it will take a supreme effort for him to win this.
The winner of that Greatwood Hurdle was HARAMBE. This strong-travelling 7 year-old is still unexposed and could go very well again here despite a 7lb rise for that Cheltenham win and an absence since that race in November. Trainer Alan King has never won this prize but, as shown in November and on several other occasions, is a dab hand at getting a horse spot on for these big handicaps. The stable has not been firing in recent weeks but did enjoy a nice winner on Friday afternoon so may be about to turn the corner. The horse does not seem to be too ground dependent so conditions should be ok here.
In addition to the top-weight, GUMBALL, Philip Hobbs also runs 2 other horses. The first of these is OAKLEY who, in 7 starts over hurdles, has finished outside the first 3 just once. He won twice as a novice last season and last time out finished 2nd at Cheltenham when one place ahead of NEVER ADAPT. He was giving the Henderson charge 6lbs that day and finished over a length ahead yet, despite being 7lbs better off here, currently finds himself at roughly double the price at the time of writing. Whilst NEVER ADAPT possibly ruined her chances by racing too exuberantly, OAKLEY did idle when hitting the front and may well have won if produced a little later. On the form of that race alone, he does not deserve to be twice the price of his rival.
Hobbs also has ZANZA entered here and he is one of the complete outsiders of the field. He ran in this race 12 months ago, at Ascot, and was well beaten having taken a keen hold during the race. The race returning to Newbury should be much more in his favour this year as he has a perfect 2 wins from 2 runs record at the track. The latter of these came back in November when he won a handicap off a mark just 2lbs lower than he runs off here and he finished over 2 lengths ahead of MAGIC DANCER, who re-opposes here off the same terms. That win was his last run wearing a hood with the headgear having been applied for the first time on his next run after last year’s Betfair Hurdle. He won that contest too and that was also at this venue over course-and-distance. His record in a hood is 2 wins from 3 runs and the hood has been left off for his last 2 starts – firstly when 6th in The Greatwood Hurdle and next when falling at Ascot in the pre-Christmas race won by NOT SO SLEEPY. It seems significant that the headgear returns here and, with his rider claiming 3lbs meaning he has a nice racing weight, he should also welcome the drying ground. He could run a very big race at big odds.
Another trainer with 3 entered in here is Paul Nicholls. He always gives his horses their mid-winter jabs in early January and then gives most of them an easy time for a few weeks during the early part of that month. A few weeks on now and his horses seem to be running as well as ever and he has a 33% strike-rate in the last fortnight. He has only won this race once, with Zarkander in 2012, but has had 4 others placed from a total of 22 runners. PIC D’ORHY would seem to be the stable first-string, based on jockey booking, whilst TAMAROC DE MATHAN just gets in at the very bottom of the card and has a low weight to carry. He is having just his 3rd run for the stable and only the 4th of his whole career here and was well beaten in that Ascot race just before Christmas. He has been dropped 5lbs as a result of that and may prefer this better ground but that is an unknown quantity.
Nicholls’ best chance of success may lie with the second-season novice ECCO who is ridden by Bryony Frost. He has had only 6 runs and was thrown somewhat into the deep end on his first 2 starts last season. This season, following wind surgery over the summer he has performed better and has won 2 novice events plus has finished 2nd and 3rd on his other two outings. The ground could be key with this one as both his wins came on a sound surface whilst he has struggled a little in the soft. Last time, however, he did run a decent race at Kempton when finishing second to a horse he was conceding 8lbs too, and, who has since franked the form with another win at Mussleburgh last week-end. He may not have won that day anyway but, a mistake at the last flight did his chances no good. He could run well at decent odds.
Philip Kirby is very much a trainer who has been progressing in the last couple of years and, whilst, so far, this season is not anywhere near as successful as last year, he sends one down from his North Yorkshire base who could have an each-way chance. The horse concerned is WHOSHOTTHESHERIFF and this 6 year-old has won 3 of his 7 hurdles starts, so far, and finished as runner-up in 2 more. He came 5th last time, again in that race at Ascot, but did race wide throughout so could, perhaps, have finished a little closer. Formerly with Gordon Elliott, he will probably prefer the drying conditions to the heavy ground he faced at Ascot.
From time to time, we see horses who have plied their trade over this side of The Atlantic head to The United States to try their luck over there. Well, in this race we have a horse who has made the reverse journey. HIGHLY PRIZED was a fairly successful horse on the flat in The US but last year he switched ownership and stables and came over to England to be trained by Emma Lavelle. He immediately won on stable debut, last April, and has followed that up with 2 subsequent wins from his next 3 races. The last of those came on handicap debut at Huntingdon, in November, where he won easily by 8 lengths and the horses back in 4th and 6th have both franked the form with wins since. He has gone up 10lbs for that win, which may seem harsh, but he was good value for that win and may not yet have reached his full potential. The key to the horse is decent ground so the dry week has been in his favour whilst he appears to go well fresh and looks to have been saved for this. Some of the value in his price has disappeared during Friday, which suggests that, perhaps, on elf the high-profile tipsters has put him up but he does remain a nice each-way price at the time of writing.
A horse that it could be argued is most ‘well-in’ at the weights is THEBANNERKINGREBEL. He is due to go up to a mark of 145 in future races but gets to make his handicap debut here off 4lbs lower. He is a horse who had some decent bumper form last season but, prior to his last run at Haydock, he had won all 3 of his completed starts over hurdles. His one non-completion coming in very unfortunate circumstances at Wetherby in November. He was, also, slightly unfortunate at Haydock last month when finishing 3rd behind STOLEN SILVER in heavy ground. He should appreciate the better ground here and is 9lbs better off with the winner that day here, having only been beaten by 2 lengths. The horse was, originally, an intriguing entry at last week-ends Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown and the fact that he, eventually, swerved that to come here could be telling as could the fact that Gavin Sheehan hot-foots it from Warwick, having raced in the 2.05 race there, to take this his only ride at Newbury. His trainer, Jamie Snowden, is having the best season of his career so far and boasts a strike-rate of 24% across the whole campaign.
STOLEN SILVER who won that race at Haydock last month is one of two horses entered here for Nigel Twiston-Davies and no trainer has a better record than him in this race in the last 6 years. In that time he has won the race 3 times and on each occasion it was with a novice. As mentioned above, STOLEN SILVER does find himself 9lbs worse off with THEBANNERKINGREBEL here but he did finish very strongly that day and will be suited by this slightly longer trip. He is the choice of the trainer’s jockey son, Sam, but the stable’s other entry SIR VALENTINE gets in here having to carry over a stone less in weight and with a course-and-distance victory to his name from his only other run here back in November. He, like many others in here, also ran in the Ascot handicap just before Christmas and he finished 3rd having endured a far from smooth journey through the race. Whilst he was well beaten by NOT SO SLEEPY, his mark has been left unchanged and he is, therefore, now 17lbs better off with the winner. His canny trainer, obviously, knows how to plot one up for this race and I have a feeling this race would have been the plan straight after that Ascot race. He is a bigger price than his stable-mate but I can see him finishing ahead of him and may make the frame.
Another trainer who has targeted this race successfully in the past is Gary Moore. He has won the race 3 times this century and also had 2 others placed from just 15 runners. His one entry in here in NEFF and, given the trainer’s record in the race, he was certainly worth a second look. He is a novice who has finished in the first 2 in all 4 of his races over hurdles so far. This is his handicap debut and a step up in grade from what he has encountered so far but if ECCO is to be given an each-way chance then so is NEFF on the form of their clash at Ascot in November. The Nicholls horse triumphed on that occasion, by 6 lengths, but NEFF is 8lbs better off here. He has a low weight and Joshua Moore has ridden on all 4 of his previous starts. He usually races prominently and that can often suit in contests like this.
In summary, I doubt there will be a more competitive handicap hurdle than this run all season, and cases can be made for the majority of the maximum field with a number fitting the profile of previous winners. The ground could be a key factor here, however, as many have been racing for much of the season on soft ground and, so, I think it is worth siding with horses who will definitely prefer the drying conditions here. HIGHLY PRIZED is an obvious one in that regard, having raced for much of his career in America, and he looks to have been kept fresh for this. THEBANNERKINGREBEL is one of those who fits the trend regarding novices being successful but, more than that, has shaped like a really good prospect over hurdles so far this season and is 4lbs well-in at the weights. Finally, at a big price it is worth taking a chance on ZANZA, with 6 places on offer, with the combination of the returning hood, better ground and a return to Newbury all looking to be in his favour. He bids to give Philip Hobbs his first win in the race, having had 9 placed this century, and he just gets the nod over SIR VALENTINE who would be the first reserve should any of the main picks not run.
TIPS - Highly Prized / Zanza / Thebannerkingrebel - all 1 point each way