(Elite - DONCASTER 3.15)
With Cheltenham Trials Day not attracting the big-fields that may have been expected in a couple of contests, the big betting race of the day is up at Doncaster with The Skybet Chase. It is a listed handicap, run over 3 miles, and looks set to take place on drying ground.
A trainer who has successfully targeted this race in recent years (and, indeed, chases at Doncaster in general) is Alan King. He won this race in 2016 and 2017 with Ziga Boy and he saddles 3 this year in an attempt to make it 3 wins from the last 5 renewals.
The first of his entrants is the current favourite DINGO DOLLAR who returns for another crack at the race after finishing 6th last season off 2lbs higher. He was sent off a well-supported favourite 12 months ago but a change of tactics did not seem to suit him and favourite backers were left disappointed. He returned here 5 weeks later and finished 2nd in The Grimthorpe behind CHIDSWELL, who re-opposes here, and had previously won at the track as a novice. His last win, however, was almost 2 years ago and, it would seem, he does like to lead. There are a couple of others in here who, also, like race prominently so he may not get things the way he likes up front. In addition, he finds himself burdened with joint top-weight. That said, he did run a decent race in The Ladbroke Trophy for the second year running, in November, and comes here nicely refreshed on drying ground that should suit.
King’s second runner is AZZERTI. He was a decent novice last season and kicked off this campaign with a win at Newbury in November. That was over 2miles 4 furlong and he was stepped up to this trip last time at Ascot when finishing 5th in heavy ground. That was just his second try at this distance, having been pulled up at Ayr on the other attempt, so he does have it to prove at this distance. He has, however, been dropped 2lbs following that Ascot run.
The third, and longest-priced, runner of Alan King is GOOD MAN PAT. He is still only a 7 year-old and has had just 7 starts over fences. Only one of those runs came over this 3 mile distance and that was Ascot on seasonal debut where he didn’t appear to get home. It may have been that he just faded through lack of race-fitness but he was dropped back in distance last time in The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham where some sloppy jumping did his chances no good at all. He has won over 3 miles in his pointing days, as well as over hurdles, but the trip has to be a concern. He is, however, now 2lbs lower than at Cheltenham and his conditional jockey takes off a further 7lbs so he is well treated here.
A trainer whose record deserves respecting at Doncaster is Nicky Henderson and, whilst he has not had a great record in this race in recent times, his strike-rate in chases at the track is 31% in the last 5 years. He runs a couple here in the shape of BURBANK and OK CORRAL.
The former has only had 5 runs over fences but boasts 2 wins in the discipline. The last of those came last time out at Newbury, a track that is not too dissimilar to Doncaster, when he won a novice chase in commanding style. He is one of a few in here who likes to front-run and there seems a guarantee of a strong pace for that reason. That could mean that his stamina will be well and truly tested here and he has only ever gone this distance once and that was back in April, over hurdles, at Aintree when he finished a creditable 4th. In addition, an 11lb rise in the weights following his last run does make this a much tougher task. The drying ground should be in his favour, however, and the fact that his owner also had Cloth Cap entered in this at the 5-day stage but has chosen to just go with this 8 year-old may hint that a big run is expected.
His stable-mate OK CORRAL carries joint top-weight here and comes here on a bit of a retrieval mission following a couple of below-par performances so far this season. He is a big horse and won his first 2 starts over fences last season before being sent off a fairly short-price for the 4-mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. Top Irish amateur jockey, Derek O’Connor, comes over for the ride, with a possible eye towards future targets and, although he was ante-post favourite for The Ladbroke Trophy at one point, he does appear to face a tough task here.
Another of the joint top-weights is CALIPTO but, unlike the other two, he does have the benefit of the 5lb claim of his jockey Hugh Nugent. Formerly trained by Paul Nicholls, this 10 year-old has only had one run this season when well beaten in the mud at Chepstow. Unlike many of the stable’s horses, CALIPTO, actually seems to be better away from soft ground and, so, the better going here should suit him more. He finished 3rd in this race last year, on good ground, and lines up here off just 3lbs higher. Taking his claiming jockey’s allowance into account, however, he is actually effectively 2lbs lower. He, also, comes here a fresher horse than 12 months ago having had just the one run this term compared to 4 previous outings last year. Following his 3rd place here last year, he followed up with a fine win over Black Corton at Ascot 3 weeks later – again over this 3 mile trip – before a poor run at The Cheltenham Festival in soft ground. The trainer does not have a good record at this venue but, given the horse has had only one run, so far, this season, it looks like he has been aimed at this and it will be no surprise to see him bang in contention in the final stages of the race.
One place ahead of CALIPTO in last year’s race was MONBEG RIVER and he returns here off a mark that is 5lbs lower. The horse has not won since winning here in December 2017 but, after a couple of lack-lustre runs in early autumn, he now finds himself back on that last winning mark of 128. When he finished 2nd last year, he was 5 lengths ahead of CALIPTO and renews rivalry on 3lbs better terms after taking into account the claim of Hugh Nugent. Add to this the fact that drying ground should suit him and his record here at Doncaster and he looks over-priced to me at present. His record as a chaser is decent, with 3 wins and 10 places in the frame from 21 runs, and, whilst many of those came in lower grades than this, his form at the track is also a positive. In addition to his 2nd in this race last year, his only other run saw a convincing 16-length victory in that race in December 2017. His trainer is a rare visitor to the track and there is every possibility that he has been trained with this target in mind since the start of the season. He is 11 years old and has been off the track since October but he has gone well after a break in the past and I'm sure the break, during a period when the ground is traditionally at its softest, is all part of the plan.
Dan Skelton runs two horses here and, given his ability at plotting one up for a big handicap success, his entries in these contests always warrant some extra attention. COBRA DE MAI has been well supported in the market during the last couple of days. This 8 year-old has proven to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler and he racked up 4 wins in his novice season. Last season was more of a mixed bag but I was present at Cheltenham, in April, when he was very impressive in winning a 3mile 2furlong contest, on good ground, in which DINGO DOLLAR was pulled up. He went up 11lbs for that win and that has really put paid to his chances ever since but he is slowly sliding back down the handicap, once more, and finds himself in here off just 2lbs higher. In addition, his claiming jockey takes a further 7lbs of his back. With the strong possibility of plenty of pace in the race, he is likely to be ridden patiently here and, if it does become a test of stamina, that could suit him.
The second Skelton horse is SOLOMON GREY. He makes his handicap chase debut here following an impossible task last time out when 3rd of 3 behind Cyrname and Altior at Ascot. He has it to prove over this distance, as he tackles the trip for the very first time, and all of his chase starts have been in small field contests. However, his best performance over hurdles probably came in the big-field Lanzarote Hurdle, when a tip for this service, last January when he finished 2nd over 2miles 5 furlongs.
We managed to find the winner of the big staying chase last Saturday when Vintage Clouds bolted in for Sue Smith and Danny Cook and the same trainer-jockey combination come here looking for a big-race double with RAVENHILL ROAD. The yard started this season very slowly but have been hitting their usual mid-season good form in recent weeks and are currently operating at a healthy strike-rate of 29%. This horse was previously trained by Brian Ellison and is fairly lightly-raced for a 9 year-old. He is a winner of a point-to-point contest over 3 miles but has been campaigned largely at the minimum distance of 2 miles during his career under rules. He was stepped up to 2m 5f last time at Haydock and stayed on well to win by 2 lengths. This is, obviously, a further step up in trip and is a higher grade but, given connections, he is worthy of respect.
CHIDSWELL won The Grimthorpe Chase here last March, beating DINGO DOLLAR by 9 lengths, and returns to this venue off a mark that is now 6lbs higher. He is 8lbs worse off with Alan King’s charge here so, on that basis, they should finish much closer together. The 11 year-old warmed up for this contest with a creditable 2nd place in a Veterans Chase at Kelso last month and the form was done no harm last week when the winner, Claud And Goldie, ran creditably in 4th in the race won by Vintage Clouds. Brian Hughes keeps the ride, which is an obvious plus, but the horse has never defied a mark this high before.
Another horse needing to defy a career-high mark is FINGERONTHESWITCH who runs here for the in-form Neil Mulholland. He comes here following an impressive 10-length victory at Kempton, in a very good time, a fortnight ago for which he has received a 10lb hike.
He is a horse that will certainly welcome the drying conditions as all of his 8 career wins have come on ground no worse than good-to-soft. The strong pace of the race could really suit his hold-up style and his claiming jockey has built up a good rapport with him but he faces a tough task off this mark.
The Jonjo O’Neill trained QUARENTA caught my eye as a likely sort for this race when the declarations first came out and he has been well supported in the market during Friday. The horse is a bit of a Warwick specialist but he has proven form over the distance and, even, further which may be useful if a fierce pace brings stamina into play. In his 8 starts over fences, he has only finished outside the first 4 once, winning 3 and finishing 2nd twice. His last race saw him just touched off by Just A Sting, at Kempton, and he had COBRA DE MAI some 5 lengths behind in 5th. He just hit the second-last fence that day and that may have been the difference between winning and not at the end. However, he still went up 4lbs for that effort, which makes life harder, but he does seem to be a horse that is still improving over fences. He appears to be versatile in terms of ground but his better form does look to be in better conditions so the drying ground may help and the trainer’s son takes the ride again having won one and come 2nd in the other of the 2 chases he has ridden the horse in before. Both trainer and jockey are enjoying some good form at the moment and they shared a winner together on Friday afternoon at Huntingdon. This progressive horse looks to have a lot in his favour for this race and looks to have a good each-way chance with the enhanced places on offer.
Given the trainer’s record, the Alan King pair of DINGO DOLLAR and GOOD MAN PAT both came under consideration for the final picks in this contest whilst the last horse to be crossed off the list was CALIPTO as he looks to have been targeted at this race following his 3rd place finish last year.
However, I believe that is also the case for the horse that finished one place ahead of him, MONBEG RIVER, who is now 5lbs lower and has a good course record. At the current prices, he gets the nod over Venetia Williams’ charge.
In addition, the progressive QUARENTA looks to have the right profile for this race and has some good recent form to back that up. Despite the price seeing some contraction during Friday, he looks decent each-way bet still.
TIPS - MONBEG RIVER + QUARENTO
(note CALIPTO is a Tracker for Robin T)