Elite Service - Saturday 15th February
ELITE - Haydock 3.15 Grand National Trial 3 miles 4 1/2 furlongs
There are just under 4 weeks to go to the biggest jumps meeting of the season but, whilst many eyes are starting to turn to Cheltenham, it is now ‘trials season’ for those who have their course set to a possible engagement at Aintree some 3 weeks later and this marathon contest on Haydock’s card is the first major trial for the big race to be held at their neighbouring Merseyside track in April. The race has not produced the winner of the big one itself yet but, even so, it is often a good race in its own right and there is good prize money on offer. The top 7 in the weights are all entered in The Grand National but, with the weights for that race being announced earlier this week, they come here safe in the knowledge that a win will not ‘blow their mark’ for the big one.
This race has frequently been run in very testing conditions and this year will certainly be no exception. The current going is heavy and, whilst the ground conditions are likely to be raceable, the biggest threat to the running of the race may come from the forecast high winds and there is a precautionary inspection at 8 a.m.
11 runners are declared at the moment but that number is likely to reduce to 10 if Ascot gets the go ahead as BALLYOPTIC, who is engaged here, has that as first preference. Several firms are, however, offering 4 places on the race.
The ground conditions, in conjunction with the 3m 4f trip, will mean that the horse that wins will have to have stamina in abundance and the horse who is at the top of the weights ELEGANT ESCAPE certainly has that. He won The Welsh National in 2018 and ran well back in that race in December, when finishing 6th. Prior to that, he had, also run with great credit when finishing strongly into 3rd, under a big weight, in The Ladbroke Trophy and in his 16-race chase career he has only finished out of the first 3 on 3 occasions. He is on a high-mark here but his performances at Chepstow and Newbury show that he is capable of carrying big weights and, after having wind surgery just over a month ago, he is more than capable of running into the places here at the very least in ground that he has no issues with.
Next in at the weights is YALA ENKI and he certainly knows what’s required to win this race, having triumphed in the contest two years ago by more than 50 lengths. The ground was very testing on that occasion, as he pulled right away from the field in the closing stages, and the horse does seem to thrive in such conditions. He was trained by Venetia Williams when successful in 2018 but changed hands last October and is now in the care of Paul Nicholls. After a ‘sighter’ on stable debut in The Ladbroke Trophy, he ran well to finish 3rd in The Welsh National (for the second time) next time out and is only 2lbs higher here. His last run saw him win comfortably in Taunton’s big race of the season, again in heavy ground, and the successful jockey, Bryony Frost rides again. The horse was, perhaps, not the original first choice for this race from Ditcheat but, with Truckers Lodge (who finished 2nd at Chepstow) suffering a setback, he looks a more than adequate deputy. He was well beaten in the contest last year but that was run on spring-like good ground, which would not have suited, and his overall record of 2 wins from 4 runs in chases at the track is a good one. He could still be galloping on at the end when plenty of others have cried enough.
Another course-and-distance winner is the much improved LORD DU MESNIL. This horse, with 3 wins so far, has accounted for a third of his stable’s winners this season and his trainer, Richard Hobson, is enjoying a fine campaign. He boasts a strike-rate of 24% for the season and his 4 runners in the past fortnight have produced 1 winner and 3 second-place finishers. The horse is only a 7 year old but he has run 16 times over fences already with the last 3 resulting in his only 3 victories. That hat-trick of successes has seen him go up by a total of 25lbs in the handicap and, whilst he is clearly a very progressive chaser, he faces his toughest test yet here.
The first of his wins came at Newcastle at the end of November and that was followed by a quick-fire pair of wins here at Haydock. The latter of those came over this trip when he won comfortably, in a good time, and he has gone up 10lbs for that. He likes to go from the front but may find some competition for the lead here.
Some 20 lengths behind LORD DU MESNIL in his first Haydock win was VINTAGE CLOUDS. He, of course, was a winning tip for this service last month when comfortably winning The Peter Marsh Chase at this track and, since then, his connections appear to have had a change of heart with regard to his participation in The Grand National. Whilst, for me at least, the jury is still out on his suitability for that unique test, he is certainly well at home on this parkland course. That win took his record to 2 wins, 2 second-places finishes and 2 thirds from 6 completions in chases at the track but he has gone up 11lbs as a result and now sits on a career-high mark.
In behind VINTAGE CLOUDS, in 3rd place, in The Peter Marsh was GERONIMO. He is a lightly-raced horse with just 7 starts over fences and just 11 in total in his career. In those 11 starts, the horse has completed on 10 occasions and each time he has finished in the first 3 home. He ran a very solid race last time and only lost 2nd close home. He has been dropped 1lb for that run and, so, now finds himself 12lbs better off with VINTAGE CLOUDS for a defeat of just over 7 lengths. That was just his 2nd run back after a long break, following an injury sustained in April’s Scottish National, and he is suited by a test of stamina. The presence of ELEGANT ESCAPE in the field means that the horse only has to carry the minimum weight of 10st but the consequence of that is that regular pilot Ryan Mania cannot do the weight so Sean Quinlan takes over in the saddle. The low weight will be an advantage in the heavy ground although the testing conditions will not be a problem for the horse.
GERONIMO likes to be ridden fairly prominently but the one most likely to take on LORD DU MESNIL for the early lead is THE TWO AMIGOS. Originally with David Pipe, this 8 year-old was sent pointing when first joining his current trainer and returned under rules last season to run some excellent races. After winning 3 of his first 4 races, he came into this contest 12 months ago quietly fancied but fell 6 fences from home when still going well enough. His last run also came in The Welsh National when, despite racing keenly enough, he finished a very creditable 5th. Prior to that, he ran a brave race from the front, under 12st 1lb, in The Southern National at Fontwell, finishing 3rd. He is on the same rating here, although that is a career-high mark, and only has to carry 10st 6lbs. He is not without a frame chance.
Lucinda Russell has won this event 3 times in the past and seeks her 4th success here with former Grand National winner ONE FOR ARTHUR. The 11 year-old has not won a race since that big race success almost 3 years ago but now finds himself back on the mark of 148 he won off on that day. He is another who has been given a wind procedure in recent months and, allied with cheekpieces, that may help him to run a big race here. A strong pace will also help this confirmed stayer. He is clearly well-handicapped but I do wonder if this race is really an opportunity for connections to get a good run under his belt in preparation for another tilt at the big prize in April.
If Ascot is abandoned then BALLYOPTIC will be re-routed to here to tackle this race. After winning on seasonal debut, at Chepstow, he won The Charlie Hall Chase in November before struggling in both The Betfair Chase here and, then, The Becher Chase at Aintree. He goes well when the mud is flying and, having finished 2nd in a Scottish National, has proven stamina but jumping can sometimes be his achilles heel and, as a horse that seems to go better when forcing things from the front, he will face competition for the lead here. In addition, of course, his preferred engagement is down at Ascot.
With the ground set to ride testing and the possibility of a strong pace with at least two, if not three, competing for the lead this looks set to be a true test of stamina. The ability to see out the trip in the bottomless ground will be key and, therefore, despite their big weights, I can see both YALA ENKI and ELEGANT ESCAPE coming to the fore late on. Of the two of them, I would just side with Paul Nicholls’ charge and the money that has been coming for him as I have been in the process of writing this piece could be significant. He has shortened to such an extent that he is now only a ‘win only’ price so, at a bigger price, it may be worth also having a smaller each-way bet on GERONIMO who could still be improving, is very consistent, stays and has a low weight. I will also be having a small tricast perm by adding ELEGANT ESCAPE to the two main selections.
It promises to be a slog and may not be a pretty race to watch but let's hope it's a profitable one!
TIPS - YALA ENKI / GERONIMO - Tricast - Elegant Escape