(Elite Service) Kempton 3.35
Kempton 3.35:
This Grade 3 Handicap Chase is perhaps the biggest betting heat of the day and it is another race that is sometimes used as a trial for potential Grand National horses. There are a number of runners in the contest this year who hold entries at Aintree whilst most also have potential targets at Cheltenham on the horizon too.
Despite the recent wet weather, Kempton are hoping that the ground will have the word “good” somewhere in the official description and they have been using a “shock wave linear compactor” (whatever that is) to try to dry the racing surface. The winds on Friday and those predicted for Saturday should help them in their quest also.
A good starting point when looking at the race is last year’s renewal as the horses who finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all line-up once again this time round.
The horse who finished 2nd some 12 months ago was DOUBLE SHUFFLE and he was a selection for this service on that day.
On the face of it, his record of just 2 wins from 24 starts over fences does not look too impressive but he has finished 2nd on 8 occasions and 3rd on another. Many of those 24 starts have been in contests at the highest level, including a Gold Cup and 2 King George’s and he has also contested a Grand National.
His record at Kempton is good with 1 win and 3 runner-up spots from just 5 starts. The one time he finished outside the top 2 was when placing 5th in last season’s King George Chase. One of his 2nd place finishes here was in the 2017 King George when he was beaten just a length by Might Bite and his mark did suffer as a result of that run which forced connections to look at higher-graded contests. His last win was over 3 years ago and he is now a 10 year-old so those stats do dampen some enthusiasm but he is 4lbs lower than last year, and actually carries 9lbs less in actual weight, and his course form does mean that he warrants maximum respect. On the face of it, his two runs so far this season, both at Ascot, do not look great but, as a horse who is clearly better on good ground, the deep conditions would have been totally against him last time and his run first time out came at a time his trainer’s horses were not firing and in need of a run. Whilst not good ground, the drying conditions will be much more in his favour here and he is better off at the weights with 2 of the 3 horses who finished in behind him last year.
One of those in behind DOUBLE SHUFFLE last year was the subsequent Bet365 Chase winner TALKISCHEAP. He finished 8 lengths behind the Tom George horse last year and finds himself 16lbs worse off here, having gone up 12lbs for the Sandown win in April. The horse has been off the track since November and has undergone a wind operation in that time. He has run well after a break before so the absence should not be too much of an issue but he may well have sights on bigger things at Aintree and would probably prefer further than this.
The horse who finished 3rd last year is the current market-leader and that is ADRIEN DU PONT. He was our other selection 12 months ago and he comes here off a 6lb lower mark than he raced off then. It does look to me that this race has been the main aim for the season for the horse and he is another whose Kempton form gives grounds for encouragement to his supporters. Like DOUBLE SHUFFLE, he is another who seems to run his better races on decent ground so he will not want conditions too soft. He has been well supported during the week and looks to be the number 1 stable contender judged on jockey bookings. He is a horse who can be very keen in his races and, therefore, the likely strong gallop here should help him in that regard as will the biggish field as this may help his jockey settle him in behind horses. His style of running does, however, leave him a bit of a hostage to fortune and this particular race seems to have suited prominent racers in recent years.
ADRIEN DU PONT is one of 4 horses entered in the race for Paul Nicholls and another is the horse who finished 4th last year – ROMAIN DE SENAM. He is a rare outside ride for Harry Skelton who, interestingly, was aboard the horse last year and rides him for the first time since then. The horse holds a Grand National entry but, having done most of his racing at shorter, last year’s contest remains the only time, to date, he has tackled 3 miles. He is now rated 11lbs higher than last year and soft ground would be a worry. He has not been seen on the track since last June so he may just need this run also.
Another Nicholls’ entrant is the top-weight BLACK CORTON. He is another horse with a very good record at this course with a win and a couple of 2nd place finishes from his 3 chase starts and comes here nicely freshened up after a 9-week break following a creditable run in 4th place at Ascot just before Christmas. He is a horse whose record in chases points to him being a consistent performer with 19 of his 23 runs resulting in a top 3 finish (9 wins) and only one non-completion. Most of his runs, however, have been in small fields and he is yet to win a race in a field of more than 7 runners. He is a horse who likes to race prominently, and gets on very well with jockey Bryony Frost, and is sure to make a bold bid here off a mark that has dropped by 4lbs during this season. Horses have won the race off top-weight before, and he is a solid option here to run a big race, but no horse has ever defied a mark this high before so he does have it all to do. I do expect him to run well however.
The final Nicholls’ horse is SAMETEGAL. He is now an 11 year-old but is very lightly-raced and has clearly had his issues over the years. He has won off a higher mark than this in the past (although that was his last win and came nearly 4 years ago) and his jockey claims a useful 5lbs off his back here. He is another who seems better on a sounder surface and he does have to turn round form with 2 opponents here who finished ahead of him over course-and-distance in December.
That race over course-and-distance in December was won by JUST A STING. That was his second run in cheekpieces and followed on from an encouraging seasonal debut in The Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton when they were applied for the first time. He has only been raised 3lbs for that latest win in a race that he had finished 2nd the year before. On that occasion, he came 2nd behind ADRIEN DU PONT and meets his conqueror here 1lb better off for a defeat of 3 lengths. He did, possibly, lose some momentum on that occasion following a small mistake at the last fence so is more than capable of reversing the placings here. He is a horse who goes best when fresh and it’s highly likely that he’s been aimed at this contest since his win here over the Festive period. He is a horse who may still be progressing and his current handicap mark may under-estimate him.
Just 1 length behind JUST A STING, back in 3rd, in the December race here was HIGHWAY ONE O ONE. He is 2lbs better off here and was probably sent for home a little early that day having chased a strong pace set by the early leader. That race was his one and only try over fences at this trip and, whilst it can’t be said he didn’t stay the trip, he may have fared better if held together a little longer by his jockey. He gets the services of Leighton Aspell for the first time here, which looks a very interesting booking, and I’m sure he will be ridden with a little more restraint. He has to bounce back from a pulled-up effort last time at Cheltenham but he did scope badly afterwards so it may be best to ignore that run. Last January he finished just 2 lengths behind KILDISART, who re-opposes here, at Cheltenham, over 2 ½ miles and was conceding 2lbs to the winner. Here, he is getting 7lbs so is weighted to reverse that form and KILDISART went on to win a big novice race at Aintree in April where he beat MISTER MALARKY who also runs here. His trainer is enjoying a good season and it easy to envisage him out-running his odds here.
The aforementioned MISTER MALARKY is clearly a talented animal and he is a horse I like. He ran a creditable race, when 6th, in The Ladbroke Trophy in November but then clearly didn’t handle the heavy ground at Ascot just before Christmas in a race also contested by BLACK CORTON, KILDISART and CRIEVEHILL. The ground should be much more to his liking here and his trainer is in decent form in recent weeks. He won here over hurdles but it could be that he may find this track a bit sharp and he probably needs a little further than this. He is entered in The Ultima Handicap at Cheltenham and this may be a prep run with that contest in mind.
Two lightly-raced novices near the foot of the weights are WHATMORE and DASHING PERK and novices have a good record in this race in the last decade.
The latter is running from 2lbs out of the handicap but, as we saw in The Haydock Grand National Trial last week, that doesn’t mean they can’t win. He has had just 3 runs over fences with the first coming back in November 2018 when he finished 3rd behind JUST A STING at Uttoxeter. After a break of 414 days he then won over 2 ½ miles at Sandown last December before finishing 2nd back there at the start of January. Some of the horses he has beaten are now rated much higher so his mark of 131 may under-estimate his ability if he is still progressing. Nico De Boinville is an eye-catching jockey booking but it is worth noting that Sam Twiston-Davies, who presumably would have had the chance of taking the ride if desired, rides CRIEVEHILL for his father instead. The horse, also, still has to prove his stamina over this trip although he is a winning 3-mile pointer and is related to stayers.
WHATMORE has had just the 4 runs over fences with the last of those coming at Warwick last month. He finished 3rd that day in a grade 2 novice event but, having been set quite a bit to do with an exaggerated hold-up ride, he may have finished closer if not suffering some interference 3 from home. This is his handicap debut and he will have to brush up on his jumping, judged on the Warwick display, but the form of his seasonal debut, at Huntingdon in November, would give him a very good chance here. He finished 3rd that day behind two decent novices who have hopes of Cheltenham success next month. One of them, Pym, is now rated at 152 and finished just a head in front of WHATMORE, and was receiving 5lbs that day, so Henry Daly’s charge could be well treated off a mark of 138 here. His hurdle mark was higher than this so there clearly is scope for progress over the bigger obstacles. He has a low weight and could have a big chance here if his jumping holds together.
Having analysed the main contenders, it’s now time to nail the colours to the mast and, in a very open looking contest, I have a short-list of 5 horses. Course form can be very important here and 4 of the 5 on my list have some good form at the track. I can see BLACK CORTON making a bold bid from near the head of affairs on a track that he loves and he looks to have a strong chance for Paul Nicholls who is firing 4 bullets at the race. With enhanced places on offer, I think he is the solid option for an each-way bet. His price is probably the main factor that stopped him being a formal selection in the end.
HIGHWAY ONE O ONE could run another good race, following his strong performance over course-and-distance in December whilst the horse who beat him that day, JUST A STING should also be in the mix having been freshened up with this race in mind. However, at the current prices, I think DOUBLE SHUFFLE has a nice each-way chance and, even at the age of 10, he could go very close at a track he thrives at. His trainer has won this twice in the past, with the popular grey Nacarat, and he will have targeted this horse at this race once more having finished 2nd twice in it before.
Whilst the 4 mentioned above are all tried and tested at the track, the novice WHATMORE is, perhaps, a little more speculative. His hurdles form suggests he could be well treated and the form of his runs so far this season would also put him in with a chance off his low weight. The Warwick race proved he gets the trip so he can be ridden a little more positively here.
TIPS - WHATMORE + DOUBLE SHUFFLE - 1 POINT EACH WAY EACH.