(Elite Service) Warwick 3.00
With the defection of Rocky’s Treasure and, former winner, Milansbar on Friday afternoon, there are now 13 runners set to go to post for this 3m 5f handicap chase which is the feature contest on Warwick’s biggest day of the year. The going is currently described as soft but it is likely to be riding quite tacky and the race could turn into quite a test of stamina.
The course at Warwick is one of my favourites in the country and it offers a real test of jumping, particularly in the back straight where 3 of the 5 fences come very close together and, in a race such as this, it is important to get into a nice jumping rhythm.
Last year’s winner was IMPULSIVE STAR and he returns bidding for a repeat. This year’s renewal, although competitive, does not look as strong a contest as twelve months ago and that certainly seems to be borne out by the fact that he was bottom-weight last year yet, despite only being 4lbs higher in the handicap, he only has 4 of the field set to carry more weight. His win last year is his only victory from 9 starts, so far, over the larger obstacles and he has failed to complete on each of his 3 subsequent starts since.
Two of those were in The National Hunt Chase, at Cheltenham, and The Scottish Grand National at the back end of last season whilst the third came last month, on seasonal debut, at Cheltenham when the deluge of rain left the going very testing. He should be fitter for that run and may well have been primed for a repeat performance of last year by his trainer who, historically, has a very good record with his handicappers in the month of January. He wears blinkers for the first time in a bid to sharpen up his jumping and connections will hope they have the same impact as did the re-application of cheekpieces in last year’s race. Neil Mulholland also has a 32% strike-rate with his chasers at Warwick in the last 5 years whilst Sam Waley-Cohen has ridden 3 winners from just 5 rides at the track during the same period.
The likely emphasis on stamina should firmly bring the attributes of the top-weight, LE BREUIL, into play. He, of course, won the 4-mile National Hunt Chase last March, rallying bravely up the hill to win what was an attritional race. He was pulled-up on seasonal debut, over hurdles, at a time when his stable were going through a barren spell, but really caught my eye with his 7th placed effort in The Becher Chase at Aintree last month. That performance, actually, prompted me to have a rare ante-post wager on him for The Grand National in April and that does remain his major target this season. This race has actually produced 2 of the last 7 Grand National winners, including One For Arthur who actually won the contest in 2017, so it can be a useful stepping-stone in that regard.
LE BREUIL was dropped 2lbs for that run at Aintree and his young conditional jockey takes off another 7lbs here so he could be well-treated here. I have a feeling, however, that connections will not want to completely blow what looks a very decent mark for the big race in April and this may just be a prep with that bigger target in mind when regular rider, Jamie Codd, is sure to be back on board.
Another horse in here who ran well in The Becher Chase last time is KIMBERLITE CANDY. He finished 2nd there, staying on well up the run-in and runs here off a mark just 3lbs higher.
This 8 year-old progressed nicely over fences last season and often has shaped like a real dour stayer. He wore cheekpieces at Aintree and they are retained here for this assignment. Like LE BREUIL, connections have set The Grand National as this season’s big target but, unlike Ben Pauling’s charge, he probably does need to go up a few pounds if he is stand a chance of getting into that race. Taking the claims of the jockeys into account, he is 12lbs worse off with LE BREUIL for the Aintree race but he did finish some 18 lengths ahead that day.
He has been well supported in the market in the last few days but that was also the case last season when, after a good first run of the campaign, he failed to fire on his 2nd start of the season. He is a horse who is possibly at his best when fresh but his excellent young trainer has a fine 40% strike-rate in chases here in recent years and, with him needing to win to ensure a rise big enough to make The Grand National, his chances have to be respected here.
At the time of writing, the only horse shorter than KIMBERLITE CANDY in the betting is THE CONDITIONAL. He has shown huge improvement since coming across from Ireland to join David Bridgwater and he, currently, holds an entry in The Gold Cup. This will be just his 4th run for the yard and he won the 2nd of those when staying on well to beat West Approach at Cheltenham, in very soft ground, in October. He showed that to be no fluke when running really well to finish as runner-up in The Ladbroke Trophy the following month. This will be the furthest he has had to race over, so he does have to prove his stamina, and, whilst he is now 15lbs higher than for his Cheltenham success, he could still be improving (he will have to if he is to be a genuine contender in The Gold Cup). He is, clearly, an interesting contender here but at the current prices he offers no each-way value to me.
With the official top weight on the card being ridden by a 7lb claimer, the horse who actually has to carry the most weight in this race is CROSSPARK. This horse finished 3rd in this race last year and was 4th the year before so does have proven form over the course-and-distance. Last year in particular, however, he did come into this race in far better form than is the case this time around. Like IMPULSIVE STAR, however, he may just have been aimed at this race and, so, it would not be the biggest shock were he to show a large upturn in form. Following his game effort here last year, he went on to win The Eider Chase at Newcastle before posting an excellent performance when runner-up in The Scottish National. He is clearly well suited by an extreme test of stamina and Jamie Moore rides once again, having been aboard for the one and only time when he won The Eider.
If you follow the course form of trainers then look no further here than local trainer Dan Skelton. He has produced 19 winners in chases at the track in the last 5 years at a strike-rate of 33% and, of course, he is the sort who knows how to target the big handicap races. He is represented here by CAPTAIN CHAOS who is another who has to bounce back from a disappointing last run. He was pulled up in The Welsh National at Chepstow just over a fortnight ago but it would appear that the Welsh circuit is not one where the horse is ever seen at his best for some reason. In 4 chase starts at that venue he has only beaten 1 horse home in total so it may be best to draw a line through that last run. Prior to that, he had run a fine race to finish 2nd in The Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle staying on well at the line. That was the second year running he had finished in the runner-up spot in that race and that was the first of 3 very good runs in the second half of the season that culminated in a 6th place finish in The Kim Muir at Cheltenham. That race came off a mark 1lb higher than he competes from here and is one of several pieces of form in the book that suggests he has a chance here. The return of blinkers suggests that connections mean business and the horse has run well in them before. He has only competed at this track once before and that came at this meeting in 2017 when he finished 3rd in a Novice Chase behind American. He has good form on soft ground but the trip is, perhaps, a question mark.
At the foot of the weights is 10 year-old mare GOODNIGHT CHARLIE and, apart from IMPULSIVE STAR, she is the only course-and-distance winner in the field. That win came back in March, on soft ground, in a class 3 contest off a mark 14lbs lower so, on paper, she has it all to do in this grade. However, with just 10 stone on her back, less the 3lb claim of Page Fuller, she has a real feather-weight and, with the defections of Milansbar and Rocky’s Treasure, may face less competition for the lead than may have been the case. Her overall record at the course is very good (with 2 wins and 2 second places from 5 chase starts) and I can see her out-running her odds.
There are several horses in here who have to show a return to form if they are to figure but, aside from the aforementioned THE CONDITIONAL, there are a couple of other horses who have been in very good form so far this term.
The first is BOBO MAC who has looked a horse transformed this season. Prior to the start of this campaign, the 9 year-old grey had failed to hit the frame in 4 starts over fences. However, his 2 runs this season, both at Ludlow, have seen him record a win and a 2nd place. The first came in November, over 3m 2f, and saw him win a class 3 handicap quite comfortably, with HEAD TO THE STARS (who re-opposes here) a faller in that race. Next time out, off a 10lb higher mark, he was beaten by a well-handicapped Venetia Williams horse who was subsequently sent off as favourite for a big novice chase on Kempton’s Boxing Day card. The form of that race has been boosted a little by the 4th horse home finishing 2nd in this week’s North Yorkshire National at Catterick and the 5th horse home finishing a close 2nd in last week’s Veterans Chase Final at Sandown. He has gone up another 5lbs for that run, so does need to improve again, but has a nice weight to carry and Sean Bowen keeps the ride.
The Fergal O’Brien-trained PETITE POWER is another who has been in good form so far this season with wins at Cheltenham and Uttoxeter followed by a narrow defeat at Exeter. The mare who beat him at Exeter ran much better than the bare result suggests in last Sunday’s Sussex National at Plumpton whilst the trip should pose no problem here. His usual rider takes off a handy 7lbs here so the horse will only carry 11st 2lbs. It could be that the horse is still improving at the age of 11 but he is off a career high mark here stepping up in class.
In summary, it is quite easy to envisage the likes of THE CONDITIONAL and KIMBERLITE CANDY running well here but both still have some question-marks against them and I would want a bigger price to play on either. Indeed, there are question marks against a good many in the field but, at the prices, with enhanced places on offer, it is worth siding with last year's winner IMPULSIVE STAR who has had excuses for all 3 of his subsequent runs and could be revived here in the change of headgear for a trainer who knows the time of day. In addition, CAPTAIN CHAOS, despite not winning for nearly 2 years, has some pieces of form in the book to give him a chance here and is another for whom a change of headgear could work the oracle. They will be the 2 formal selections but, whilst not a formal tip, at the current odds (50/1 available at the time of writing), I'm going to risk some loose change on GOODNIGHT CHARLIE in the hope that she can sneak into the top 5 at least.
TIPS - Impulsive Star + Captain Chaos / TRACKER - Goodnight Charlie