Goodwood - Stewards Cup 3.40
The final day of the meeting sees one of the most fiercely-competitive handicaps in the flat season calendar and, looking at the ratings, this is a strong renewal which has, no doubt, been helped by the sharp increase in prize-money compared to last year.
At the time of writing, we have a maximum field of 28 runners set to go to post and the betting is headed by James Fanshawe’s 4 year-old FRESH. He has proved his liking for big-field handicaps this season by, first of all, winning at Ascot in May and then finishing an excellent 2nd last time in The Wokingham at the Royal meeting. He is up 3lbs for that performance but does have some decent form in the book, including when beaten just a neck by the now 120-rated July Cup winner Starman last season at Kempton. He seems to go well with plenty of ease in the ground so connections may not want the ground to dry out too much.
Also popular in the betting in the build up to this race has been HURRICANE IVOR. He was involved in a controversial incident at Sandown two runs ago when, officially at least, dead-heating for 1st place over 5 furlongs before running an excellent race last time at Ascot, over the same distance, to finish a close 2nd after running on the unfavoured far side of the track. He finished well clear of others in his group that day and hit the line hard to suggest this 6 furlongs should be no issue. He has only had 3 runs for William Haggas since arriving from France at the start of the season and looks to still be improving. He is 3lbs ‘well-in’ here and his trainer has a good record in this race.
The weights are headed by CHIL CHIL who has progressed rapidly in the last year or so, going up 25lbs in the handicap. After winning a handicap, off a mark of 97, at Newmarket in May, he took the Group 3 Chipchase at Newcastle last month before finishing well down the field in The July Cup. These are clearly calmer waters but he still faces a huge task off top-weight and he does prefer the ground to be on the fast side. He is one of three entries for the King Power operation and it is noteworthy that retained jockey, Silvester De Sousa, has chosen to ride.
The second King Power is LAMPANG and this 4 year-old is trained by Tim Easterby who trained the winner of this race back in 2001. This lad, who can race prominently, won at Hamilton in early June but then found himself drawn on the wrong side in The Wokingham and could only finish 10th. He is 2lbs lower here and will enjoy the possible drying ground more than the soft conditions he has faced on his last two runs. He is, however, a little inconsistent.
The final King Power runner is BIELSA. He has raced in a number of these big-field handicaps in the last couple of seasons and, although he often runs a solid race, he has not got his head in front in nearly two years now. The handicapper does not give him much relief, however, and he is still 6lbs above that last winning mark. Oisin Murphy takes the ride for the first time here and he is better off at the weights with a number of rivals in here based on past encounters this year. He is often well-supported in the market, having been sent off as favourite in 9 of his 14 starts, so connections still think highly of him. He is drawn towards the centre of the track so his jockey may have a decision to make if the field splits into two or more groups.
One of the horses to finish ahead of BIELSA this season is COMMANCHE FALLS. That came back in April at Ayr and Michael Dods’ 4 year-old has won twice more since. The second of those wins came last time out in The Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton, where he had 2 of today’s opponents in behind, and he is 6lbs higher here. He is a horse who is clearly progressing and, as a horse with a ‘hold up’ style of running, his draw should give him a nice tow in the race as he has two of the likeliest pace-setters drawn in the next two stalls along.
The pace from the high side of the draw looks like it may come from the likes of EJTILAAB, MERAAS and COUNT OTTO whilst the low side of the draw could be towed along by PUNCHBOWL FLYER and MAJOR JUMBO.
MAJOR JUMBO is another entry for Kevin Ryan and he is another who has not won for the last two years. His last win came in a listed contest at Chester, when he was rated at 107, and he is 12lbs lower here. He has never raced at this venue before but this downhill, sharp track could well suit this pacy front-runner and it would not be a surprise to see him run well at decent odds.
Drawn just inside MAJOR JUMBO, in gate 3, is PUNCHBOWL FLYER. He is another who got the better of BIELSA earlier this season, when winning at Haydock, and after finishing 8th in The Wokingham (when first home of those drawn high), he won again at Windsor last time. He is best on a soft surface, so will not want conditions to dry too much, and he does have to carry a 6lb penalty for that last win. That said, he is excellent form this season and could try to make a bold bid from the front.
The hat-trick seeking EJTILAAB has switched from Ian Williams to Charlie Fellowes since his last win and races off an 8lb higher mark than for his win last time at Newcastle. That took his career record over this trip to a perfect 3/3 and he has spent much of his career, so far, racing over a furlong further. He beat four of today’s rivals easily when winning at Epsom last month and, despite the change of yard, David Egan retains the ride having been in the saddle for both of his last two successes.
Mark Johnston likes to target this meeting and, generally, he does so very successfully. This race, however, is one that he has not yet won (albeit from only a handful of tries) and he bids to put that right here with MERAAS and DESERT SAFARI. The former ran in the race last year and ran well for a long way before fading into 6th place at the finish. He is 3lbs lower this year (although is still 3lbs ‘wrong’ at the weights) and, following a gelding operation and wind surgery over the winter, he comes here after a much lighter campaign than 12 months ago. He has only run twice, and both came earlier this month, so looks to have been very much targeted at this race this time around.
DESERT SAFARI was well behind MERAAS a fortnight ago at Hamilton but bounced back to form with a good 3rd place here earlier in the week. That run, however, came over 5 furlongs and he does seem better at the minimum distance than this trip. Regular stable jockey Joe Fanning takes the ride but I struggle to see a case for this all-weather specialist and, especially, given he is 2lbs ‘wrong’ at the weights.
The race was won last year by the admirable SUMMERGHAND and he returns here off just 1lb higher. This is his first handicap on the turf since that race 12 months ago and he has spent much of the time since running creditably in higher grades. He has found Group 1 company too hot the last twice but did claim a much deserved Group 3 victory when winning at Newmarket in April, getting the better of subsequent Kings Stand winner Oxted on that occasion. He should enjoy these calmer waters and Danny Tudhope, who rode him in both his Group win and in this last year, is back in the saddle. He has won on a variety of surfaces but there is no doubt that he goes better on quicker ground so he is one who will, definitely, want the ground to continue to dry out. This will be his third run in this race, having also finished 4th in 2019, and he is sure to give another bold show.
Just one place behind SUMMERGHAND in the 2019 renewal was JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE and he gets in here at the bottom of the weights off a 3lb lower mark than back then. He has, also, switched stables since then and is another lining up for Kevin Ryan here. In 2018, he was actually 2nd in this contest, off a mark of 101, and was beaten just a short head. In the 12 months or so since switching to this yard, he has not shown the same form and has shown a tendency to get upset in the stalls and has, on occasion, missed the break after rearing at the start. He can’t afford to do that here but, if breaking ok, he could run a big race at generous odds.
Ryan has a fourth entry in here in the shape of 2020 Wokingham winner HEY JONESY. That was the last time he won and he runs here off just 1lb higher than that last winning mark. He ran well down the field in this contest last year and, again, in The Ayr Gold Cup in September but ran a solid race back in The Wokingham last month, off this mark, and seems to get on well with Megan Nicholls.
William Buick has been riding well this week and he gets the leg up here on GREAT AMBASSADOR for Ed Walker. Previously with Ralph Beckett, he is yet to win on turf and has run predominantly over further in the past. His current trainer clearly sees him more of a sprinter and this will be his third run over this trip since joining the yard. The trainer is in good form, as is the jockey, and he warrants respect. He will not want too much rain, however, as he was pulled from The Wokingham due to soft ground.
The horse that GREAT AMBASSADOR beat on seasonal debut was BARBILL and he is one of seven in here who also ran in last year’s contest. He was well beaten on that occasion, beating just the one home, but the ground was a lot faster than is likely here and he was clearly not suited by the going. He is now 7lbs lower than at the start of this season and 5lbs below his last winning mark and is capable of running a solid race at a big price, maybe sneaking into a place, but it will be a surprise if he were to win.
Just one place ahead of BARBILL last year was ATALANTA’S BOY and he lost all chance when rearing just as the stalls opened. He is a horse who can get a little upset in the stalls and that is by no means the last time that has happened with him. In fact, last time out, at Windsor, he was pulled up after rearing as they came out of the stalls whilst prior to that he also blew the start when finishing last at Epsom. If he can make a clean start, and it probably is a big “if’, he has shown himself very fond of this track as, barring last year’s race, he has won all four of his other races here. He is versatile with regards to ground but is 4lbs above his last winning mark.
There has been a significant market move for OSTILIO during Friday who is drawn in stall 1. He was a very good performer over 7 furlongs and a mile for his former stable but has largely struggled since transferring to Paul Midgley late last year. His new trainer has tried over the minimum trip the last twice and steps him back up to 6f here. He was a Group 2 for previous connections so clearly has ability but he may still find things too sharp at this track.
Another pair who may find this track too sharp are CHIEFOFCHIEFS and GULLIVER. They finished 4th and 5threspectively in The Wokingham with the former, in particular, doing his best work at the end. He is a horse who needs to be produced late and Jamie Spencer will, no doubt, be seen trying to weave his way through horses in the final stages. He won’t want too much rain.
GULLIVER possibly saw too much daylight at Ascot and hit the front earlier than ideal, as he is another that likes to be produced late, and he has been beaten twice before in this race (albeit off higher marks). He won’t mind any rain but this York specialist may be one to look out for in a handicap back there later in the season.
Trainer Charlie Hills has a good record in this race in recent years and he relies on MONTAGALLY here. He is definitely a horse who would not want any further rain, especially over this 6f trip as all of his good form has come on either quick ground or an all-weather surface. He has never won in this class and something like The Portland at Doncaster may be a more suitable race for him than this.
MR LUPTON looks to face a tough task in here off his mark and he was well beaten off 3lbs lower in the race last year. He is capable on his day, however, and could get a nice tow into the race being drawn in the middle of the likely pace-setters in the low stalls.
A typically competitive Stewards Cup made just a little more complicated by the weather forecast and the uncertainty over the ground. With the rain showers that are forecast, it’s doubtful that the ground will be any worse than Good To Soft and, if they avoid the rain, the wind could even mean that the going dries to Good.
SUMMERGHAND probably goes better on quicker going than that but he does handle most conditions and the class of last year’s winner could be a factor here as he looks to repeat his feat of 12 months ago off just 1lb higher. His form, in group races, is the best on show and his current price is too big to ignore given the enhanced places on offer. I expect him to come with his usual late burst and, even if not quite good enough to gain first place, that should, hopefully, be enough to claim some each-way money.
After a disappointing campaign last year, BIELSA has run some solid races in defeat this season and this could be just the sort of contest that suits him. He clearly didn’t stay the 7f trip he was tried over last time and this step back in trip, on this sharp track, just might suit his style of running. Kevin Ryan has four interesting entries and this 6 year-old may just be the pick of them. He finds himself better off at the weights with several rivals in here and could easily reverse the form from races earlier in the season on that basis.
I was very tempted by the claims of both COMMANCHE FALLS, who is in great form this season, and FRESH, who looks to be an improver, but I will go with MERAAS who, although beaten by COMMANCHE FALLS in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton last time, was probably given too aggressive a ride that day as his claiming jockey looked to bring him over to the rail early in the race. Those exertions probably took their toll in the later stages of the race and, with him drawn nearer the stands rail here, Ryan Moore should be able to ride a more patient race. He ran well for a long way in this last year and, off a 3lb lower mark, looks to have a good chance of at least hitting the frame here.
If any of the selections fail to run, I will have COMMANCHE FALLS as a reserve pick.
Trackers: Summerghand / Bielsa / Meraas