Kempton 3.35
DAVID - ELITE SERVICE - Kempton 3.35 Close Brothers Handicap - 18 run - Good
Undoubtedly the most competitive and biggest betting race on Saturday in the UK is this 3 mile chase at Kempton. First run in 1988, this Grade 3 contest is often seen as a Grand National trial although you have to go back to Rough Quest to find the last horse to win both this and the Aintree showpiece in the same season.
Following a mainly dry week and some early spring sunshine, this contest looks set to be run on largely Good going which will be music to the ears of some but not others in here. A decent field of 18 are currently set to go to post and there are plenty of enhanced place offers available with the bookies.
A good start point may be to look back on last year’s race for potential form clues as 5 horses who ran then re-appear here once more.
At the head of the weights is the horse who finished 2nd last year and that is BLACK CORTON. He is a horse with a very good record at this course with a win and a trio of 2nd place finishes from his 4 chase starts, as well as a win in his only hurdles outing at the track, and comes here nicely freshened up after an 11-week break following a poor run at Cheltenham in December. He is a horse whose record on ground described as ‘Good To Soft’ or better is outstanding. In 23 outings in such conditions, he has won 10 times, been placed a further 12 times and only once finished out of the frame – and that was on the flat at Royal Ascot last year! He is a horse who likes to race prominently, and gets on very well with jockey Bryony Frost, and is sure to make a bold bid here off a mark that has dropped by 3lbs during this season. He is 1lb lower than twelve months ago but still 2lbs higher than his last winning mark however. Horses have won the race off top-weight before, and he is a solid option here to run a big race, but no horse has ever defied a mark this high before in this race so he does have it all to do. Usually a sound jumper, he is certainly one for the short-list.
Last year’s race was won by MISTER MALARKY and he turns up here off a mark that is now 8lbs higher than twelve months ago. He is a horse I have spoken of having a fondness for before and, in the last couple of seasons, he has become the very meaning of the word ‘inconsistent’. His runs this season illustrate this perfectly as, after having unseated his rider in The Ladbroke Trophy in November, he won well at Ascot in December, beating the ill-fated The Conditional, off a mark of 150 before disappointing once more last time out in The Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster. He was given a wind op after that race and dropped by 1lb in the handicap. Connections have chosen to offset some of his big weight here by using 7lb claimer, Harry Kimber, which means that he is, effectively, running off a mark 2lbs lower than when winning at Ascot and, therefore, only 1lb above last year.
DOUBLE SHUFFLE finished 7th in last year’s race and that was a rare ‘failure’ at this track for Tom George’s 11 year-old. He's 5lbs lower this year and, in all, he has won twice and placed on a further four occasions from his eight outings at this venue. His last run came over course-and-distance just last month when he won a class 2 chase. The form of the contest has been boosted with the 3rd home (Two For Gold) winning at Warwick last week and the 6th placed horse winning earlier this week at Doncaster. He is up 5lbs for that win but that still puts him well below the marks from which he came 2nd in this race in both 2017 and 2019. He was also 2nd in a King George here just over 3 years ago and the drying ground is very much in his favour.
One place behind DOUBLE SHUFFLE last year was ROMAIN DE SENAM in what was to prove his final outing for Paul Nicholls. Now with Dan Skelton, this 9 year-old is another who has contested this race on more than one occasion as, in addition to his 8th place finish last year, he finished 4th in 2019. He comes here on the back of his first win for his new yard, last time out at Musselburgh, and, also, steps back up to 3 miles for the first time since this contest twelve months ago. All of his wins have come over shorter than this and, indeed, the only times he has attempted this trip have been on the two occasions he has run in this race. The drying ground should, however, mean that this is less of a stamina test than it may otherwise be and the horse does have good form on good ground.
TALKISCHEAP was pulled up in this race last year but did appear to have an excuse as he lost a shoe and probably ran too near the pace. He is 2lbs lower here and may be ridden less aggressively as he returns to obstacles for the first time since las year’s contest. He, also, finished 5th in the 2019 renewal but that was off 10lbs lower than here as he was hiked in the handicap following an impressive win the big staying handicap run at Sandown on the last day of that season. He is a horse who has had breathing issues in the past and had a recent spin in a ‘jumpers bumper’ at Lingfield as a prep for this but he is being aimed at The Grand National and needs to get a chase under his belt if he is to qualify so that would appear to be the main objective here.
In addition to DOUBLE SHUFFLE, Tom George also runs CLONDAW CASTLE here. The trainer, of course, in addition to the creditable runs from DOUBLE SHUFFLE, has won this race twice in the past with the likeable grey Nacarat so he knows what type is needed to be successful in this contest. Whilst this 9 year-old has won on soft in the past, he is another who is very much better on a sounder surface. He is a very consistent sort and has been running creditably this season on, largely, unsuitably soft going. His one run on a sound surface came at Newbury at the end of November and he won a handicap over 2 ½ miles off a mark just 3lbs lower than here. He is yet to tackle 3 miles under rules but did win one of his PTP outings at this trip and he stayed on strongly up the long run-in after the last when he won at Newbury to suggest that the trip could be within his range.
Aside from Tom George, other trainers with a good record in this race, who have representatives here are Colin Tizzard and Neil Mulholland.
In addition to MISTER MALARKY, the Tizzard yard also run SLATE HOUSE here. He has rather lost his way since landing the Kauto Star Novices Chase here just 14 months ago but he ran a very encouraging race last time out, at Wincanton, when finishing 3rd in his first start after a wind operation. He was eased a further 2lbs following that run, and now looks on an attractive mark, but, not for the first time, he was badly let down by his jumping that day and, whilst there are signs of some improvement recently, the stable is still not firing like it does normally.
Neil Mulholland, having won this contest twice in the past four years, also runs two in this race. The first is FINGERONTHESWITCH who sits at the bottom of the handicap. This veteran is now an 11 year-old and has been well beaten on both of his starts, so far, this season. The up side to that is that he has come down 5lbs in the weights and is now on the same mark as when narrowly beaten by OK Corral in last season’s Skybet Chase at Doncaster. That race was the last occasion he had ideal conditions as he is another in here who prefers a sounder surface. Prior to that race, he was given an excellent ride by today’s jockey to claim a 10-length victory over this course-and-distance having been held up off a strong pace. With several prominent racers lining up here, he may get a race run similarly to suit and, with his jockey’s 7lb claim, will actually only have 9st 7lbs on his back. He did only finish 7th in this race on his only other attempt in the contest, in 2017, but he has developed a good rapport with this jockey and she has a good strike-rate for this shrewd yard.
Mulholland’s second representative is SOUPY SOUPS and he is another who should be better suited by ground conditions here than the softer surface he raced on last time. He is a horse who has run most of his best races on flat, right-handed tracks, such as Perth and Wincanton, so this venue should suit his strengths. He was pulled up on his previous visit but that was in soft ground, came after four months off the track and he lost a shoe so I would draw a line through that effort. He is the current outsider of the whole field but I would not be surprised to see him run a big race at big odds here, especially if re-producing the form of his 2nd place finish in last season’s Badger Ales Chase.
Paul Nicholls also has two entrants in here and his second horse is STONEFIELD STONE. Nobody places their horses better than the Ditcheat handler and he has a horse here who is unexposed at the trip and in good heart having won a ‘jumpers bumper’ here earlier this month. He has only finished out the first 3 once over fences in 8 starts to date and that came in very soft ground at Cheltenham in December. His best form has come on a sound surface with his 10 runs on ground described as ‘good to soft’ or better yielding 6 victories and 4 runner-up placings. He has run well at this track on a couple of occasions and looks best suited to a flat track, despite a win at Cheltenham earlier this season, and, whilst this step up to 3 miles is an unknown he does shape as though he could get the trip at a venue like this on good ground. He is rated just 1lb higher than his hurdles rating and looks to be one of just a few in this race with the potential to leave their current mark way behind.
Another horse stepping up in trip here is AL DANCER. A very capable hurdler at 2 miles, he has stepped up in trip this season over fences and had run very creditably until disappointing last time out in The Caspian Caviar Cup at Cheltenham in December. He has been given a nice break by his trainer since then and comes here before, no doubt, running at The Cheltenham Festival in a few weeks where he holds several entries. He is a horse who is often very well supported in the market for his races, so it is no surprise that his price has shortened in the days leading up to this contest, and those supporting him will be hoping that the break and the step up in trip will result in the horse’s first win since victorious on seasonal debut at Newton Abbot in October. That was over 2m 5f and he finished strongly that day as he gave 6lbs and a beating to Master Tommytucker who is now rated as a 160 horse. On that bare form, he is well-handicapped here whilst, with 5 wins and a 2nd place from his 6 runs on decent ground, he is another who should be better suited by conditions here.
THE BUTCHER SAID is another to have undergone wind surgery since his last run and, like MISTER MALARKY, that came a couple of days after running down the field in The Skybet Chase. Watching a re-run of that race, he actually ran a much better race than his final finishing position of 6th suggests. He was out the back early doors but travelled very sweetly into proceedings under Adrian Heskin when asked to get involved and looked to be going as well as anything 3 or 4 fences from home. He wasn’t able to sustain his run, however, and that may be the reason they have decided to tinker with his breathing, but he was running on unsuitable soft ground and will be much more at home here. He has, also, been dropped 2lbs for that effort and now sits those couple of pounds below his last winning mark. The handicapper may well have just given him a chance if the wind op has done the trick and the removal of his usual hood does not have a detrimental effect. The one fact I can’t get out of my head, however, is that he holds an entry in next month’s Ultima Chase at Cheltenham (a race sponsored by his owner) and this may just be a bit of a ‘sighter’ ahead of that perhaps?
Finishing 3rd in The Skybet Chase last time out was CAP DU NORD and he returns here to the scene of his excellent run behind Royal Pagaille at Christmas. He ran a very good race at Doncaster and was just out-stayed by two notable stayers in the soft ground but finds himself up another 3lbs for his trouble which means he has now gone up by 19lbs since his win at Newbury in November. That makes his task much harder here but he does look to still be progressing and he is another who will prefer the drying ground.
A horse who has finished behind CAP DU NORD twice already this season is MELLOW BEN. He is 16lb better off with Christian Williams’ runner here compared to their meeting at Newbury in November and finished just over 4 lengths behind. He is also much better off at the weights with both SOUPY SOUPS and FINGERONTHESWITCH based on previous meetings and does look well-handicapped, therefore, on some of the collateral form. Richard Johnson takes the ride once more for a stable that always have to be respected with their chasers here.
ERICK LE ROUGE is a bit of a Kempton specialist, having had 3 of his 6 career wins here, but he looks held by both MELLOW BEN and SOUTHFIELD STONE, based on previous meetings, and needs the first-time blinkers to have a positive effect if he is to win here.
ASO is turned out relatively quickly following his excellent run at Warwick last week and, as a result, is 3lbs ‘well-in’ with his new mark not yet taking effect. If this isn’t too soon, he could go well, having finished 4th in this race in the past, although he is one in here who probably would’ve wanted softer going and could find himself getting out-paced at a crucial point in the contest.
Of the others, DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL returns to the track after nearly a year off the track and may well need the run ahead of a couple of Cheltenham targets whilst YOUNG WOLF needs to bounce back from a couple of disappointing runs in the past two months. Those did come in soft ground, however, and his early chase form, on better ground during the summer and autumn does look much better. He is on his last winning mark and is another with scope to improve but this is a tough test for him.
This is a race with very few unexposed, improving types and the field is dominated by horses pretty much at or very close to their ceiling in terms of their rating. It is also a race where almost half have yet to win over the trip. That fact, however, has not stopped horses winning this race in the recent past and there are several in here who show the promise to improve for this step up in trip – the most notable being AL DANCER, CLONDAW CASTLE and SOUTHFIELD STONE.
Of these, I keep getting drawn towards SOUTHFIELD STONE who runs on this card for the 3rd year in a row. He won The Dovecote Novices Hurdle two years ago before finishing 2nd in the Pendil Novices Chase last year. He clearly goes well at the track and will have had any cobwebs blown away by his recent win on the all-weather. His form on good ground is excellent and his trainer rarely misses an opportunity to aim at the big handicaps on a Saturday.
Of the other two, AL DANCER is marginally preferred to CLONDAW CASTLE. He is another who will like the ground and he, also, has plenty of experience in the hurly-burly of these big-field handicaps. His 3rd place finish in The Paddy Power Gold Cup in November, off 1lb higher, would place him right in the mix and, whilst he was beaten on his only other start at this venue, he has won on both the other occasions he has raced right-handed (including a rearranged Betfair Hurdle at Ascot).
Of the more ‘established’ 3-milers in here, the most solid looks to be BLACK CORTON. This admirable 10 year-old rarely runs a bad race and his record on better ground is excellent. He likes to race prominently and, if Bryony Frost can get him into a nice rhythm, he can apply plenty of pressure to those in behind. His consistency has meant he has had little respite from the handicapper over the years but, his recent form in soft ground, has seen this grip loosen slightly and, whilst it will still take a mammoth effort to win this off his current mark, he does look an each-way banker to me with the enhanced places on offer.
In addition to CLONDAW CASTLE, I think FINGERONTHESWITCH could run a big race, and they rate the main dangers to the selections, whilst, at a massive price, I’m going to throw a bit of shrapnel at SOUPY SOUPS in the hope that he can sneak into the top 5 or 6 and steal some enhanced place money.
TIP: SOUTHFIELD STONE TRACKERS: Al Dancer + Black Corton