Musselburgh 3.45
Musselburgh 3.45 Edinburgh National - Class 2 - 4 miles 1 furlong - Soft (Good to Soft in places) - Showers - Rain and Sleet
Whilst there is quality action over the sea in Ireland, there a very few big betting heats to get stuck into in the UK. Possibly the best race on this side of the water is up at Musselburgh, where they hold their annual ‘Cheltenham Trials Day’, and it is a race that is not deemed a trial for next month’s Festival at all. The Edinburgh National Handicap Chase is being run for just the fourth time since its inception and it takes place over the marathon trip of 4 miles 1 furlong.
The going, at the time of writing, is described as Soft but, with rain and sleet about in the forecast, the chances are it will ride deeper than that and this is going to be a real stamina test in the conditions.
Although only 12 are currently set to go to post, there are plenty of enhanced place terms on offer with the bookies and that makes the race of some interest to me.
There is a full spread of weights here with the horse set to shoulder top weight of 11st 12lbs being LE BREUIL. Ben Pauling’s 9 year-old, like many from the yard, has been in much better form this season than he was last and ran a very good race last time, when a tip for this service, in finishing 3rd in The Classic Chase at Warwick. That was his first run after a wind operation and followed an equally creditable 3rd place finish in The Becher Chase at Aintree. Those races are certainly stronger contests than this looks and on both occasions he was staying on at the end of races run over a shorter trip than this. He won the 4 mile NH Chase at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival, proving himself a real stayer, and, whilst that was his last win, this is his first attempt back at a distance anywhere near that trip. He has been dropped 5lbs in the ratings since the end of last season and looks to be well-handicapped. His stated aim for the season, as last year, is The Grand National but, as things stand, he is unlikely to get in off his current rating and connections are definitely trying to find a race win that might give him the 6-7lb hike he is likely to need to make the cut. They have a back-up plan, in the shape of the Cross-Country race, should he fail to get his mark up before the weights are published later this month but all roads definitely point to Aintree at present. The horse, possibly, wouldn’t want it too heavy, given the weight he has to carry, but he acts well on soft and he could have the class edge here.
Competing for favouritism with the top-weight, as I write this, is THE FERRY MASTER who runs here for Sandy Thomson. The trainer, who was successful in the 2018 renewal of this race, is enjoying a good season and, as well as transforming old-timers like Yorkhill and Seeyouatmidnight, has trained this lightly-raced 8 year-old to win two races already this term. This former 3-mile PTP winner only made his debut under rules 16 months ago but has taken very well to fences this season following wind surgery back in the summer. He has had only 3 starts in chases, and this is his first attempt outside novice company, but he has won 2 of those and finished 2nd in the other. Both of the wins have come since the fitting of cheekpieces and the tongue-tie returns here, having previously been employed during his only win over hurdles. He is yet to race beyond 3 miles, so this extra mile plus, especially in this ground, is a step into the unknown, but he did look an out-and-out stayer when winning at Kelso in November and has been given a break since his win at Newcastle later that month. He is a good jumper and, if seeing out the trip, is a likely danger to all.
SAINT XAVIER is an ex-Paul Nicholls inmate and was thrown right in at the deep end for new connections, when returning from a brief spell in France, on seasonal debut when he contested The Charlie Hall Chase at the end of October. A couple of uninspiring performances after that saw him drop a couple of pounds in the handicap and, although he shaped much better at Kempton last month, he is now down another 1lb here and connections will be hoping that the application of blinkers and step up in trip can spark a revival. His current mark is edging back to that from which he bolted up over hurdles just over 12 months ago whilst his jockey has a very good strike-rate when teaming up with this trainer. One to watch in the betting?
Dr Richard Newland has maybe not had the same successes this season as he has enjoyed in the last 3 years but his horses are always to be respected in contests like this and he sends two up from his Worcestershire base for this race. The first of these is CLASSIC ESCAPE who, in 4 completed starts from 5 races over fences, is yet to finish out of the first 3 home. Last time out, he finished 2nd at Kelso, over this trip, behind DINO’S BOY, who re-opposes here but was handed that placing by a last fence faller and was well adrift at the line. He is 8lbs better off with the winner here but didn’t seem to see out the trip there and still has it all to do to reverse the form here.
The second entry for Dr Newland is the bottom weight, BILLY BRONCO, and he is having just his third outing for the stable after moving from the yard of Evan Williams in the autumn. The horse had a rather in-and-out record for the Welsh handler, and rather lost his way towards his time there, but Dr Newland has a good record at re-vitalising such horses and, after running on unsuitably good ground on stable debut, he ran an encouraging race at Hereford last time in first-time blinkers. They are retained here and the horse has been kept on the same mark, which just happens to be one that he last won off, when successful at Sedgefield fifteen months ago. His claiming jockey takes off a useful 3lbs here and, in this ground over this marathon trip, carrying a bottom weight of just 10 stone is a big advantage. He did hang and jump left-handed at Hereford, which won’t help here, but going right-handed has not proved a problem in the past as he has won twice from six starts going this way round. He is definitely one for the short-list here.
As mentioned above, DINO BOY won the race at Kelso over today’s trip back in early December and that was his 2nd win from just 5 chase starts so far. The former pointer was previously trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies but moved to his current yard in the autumn following a change in ownership. His win at Kelso, in The Borders National, clearly shows he stays this trip in soft ground but, when asked for an explanation for his improved showing from a pulled-up effort at Carlisle on stable debut, his trainer claimed that the return to a left-handed track had been a benefit. Aside from his Carlisle flop, his only other run at a right-handed track came just over a year ago when he was a beaten favourite at Wincanton. He’s clearly still unexposed at this trip but that comment about being better left-handed, plus his record, is a concern given his current odds.
DINO BOY is one of two horses running for Iain Jardine here with the other one being the 9 year-old mare THE DELRAY MUNKY. She is a bit of an Ayr specialist, winning all 3 of her races there, who handles really deep ground very well. The more it rains the better it should suit her. She refused at the last fence on her most recent start but did win her previous race comfortably over an extended 3 miles in heavy ground at Kelso in December. The step up in trip is an unknown but she gets the services of a 7lb claimer which means she, too, will be carrying just 10 stone.
There are two horses in here who have won at this track before. The first of those is MIGHTY THUNDER who represents Lucinda Russell. His win here actually came over hurdles, and he has only had 3 runs over fences in total, and he has also run a couple of other creditable races over timber here in addition. His liking for going right-handed is backed up by his good record at Perth too but both of his chase wins came at left-handed Hexham. He is another making his first appearance out of novice company but he has taken well to fences, in the main, and jumped particularly well when winning his races. He has won several times over 3 miles, and placed over 3 ¼ miles, but he does have a question to answer over this trip, especially in this ground.
The other horse to win at the track actually won this race 12 months ago and that is BOB MAHLER who makes the trek North from his Lambourn yard looking for a repeat off a mark just 2lb higher. That was, undoubtedly, the highlight of a very good campaign last season although he followed it up with an excellent run when 3rd in The Kim Muir at Cheltenham off 5lbs higher. He stayed on well up the hill that day over what is probably an inadequate trip of 3m 2f and, last year in this race, he snatched victory right on the line having gotten slightly outpaced turning for home. He is a dour stayer, of that there is no doubt, but, unlike last year when he came into the race in decent form, he has a string of pulled-up efforts to overcome this time around. If digging deep enough, however, there are excuses for all 3 of these. Firstly, at Cheltenham, as a horse with a history of needing his first outing, he faced a tough task, in hindsight, against the likes of Frodon and Cloth Cap and was subsequently given wind surgery and, then, at both Haydock and Kelso (in The Borders National), he had tack issues with the saddle slipping on each occasion. This race will have been the plan again this season and the blinkers he wore for the first time in The Kim Muir are re-applied for the first time since. If they go too hard in front in this ground, assuming no tack issues this time, he will be staying on as well as anything at the death.
Finishing 4th in last year’s race was LITTLE BRUCE and he reappears here off 2lbs lower than 12 months ago when he was sent off as joint favourite. He is another who came into last year’s race in better form than he does this time around, having won The North Yorkshire National at Catterick 3 weeks earlier, and his preparation this year has certainly been different. He started the season with a run over hurdles before competing in a cross-country race, over 3m 6f, at Cheltenham in November. Off the course since then, he warmed up for this with a spin in a ‘jumpers bumper’ over 2 miles at Newcastle so it’s difficult to gauge much from his form figures of 7,7,14 this term. This prominent racer led for much of the way in last year’s race but was pestered for the lead for a long time and, in the end, he faded up the home straight finishing 19 lengths behind BOB MAHLER. Even though he has won over 3m 6f twice, it could be argued that he didn’t quite see out the extra 3 furlongs here but I believe it could be that the race possibly came too soon after his exertions in winning at Catterick. He will be a much fresher horse this time, with the spin on the tapeta helping to put him spot on and he is only 4lbs higher than when winning at Catterick. At a track that should play to his prominent running style, he looks an each-way player at decent odds.
An intriguing runner in here is the former Willie Mullins inmate, STAY HUMBLE, who lines up for Pauline Robson. This former 3mile PTP winner was quite well regarded in his early days in Ireland and was sent off at odds-on in each of his first 5 races. He lost his way a little after that and when his prominent owner (Graeme Wylie) decided to call time he was given to his current owners (who include golfer Lee Westwood) along with several other high-profile ex-Mullins horses. He has, so far, failed to win on any of his 4 chase starts for new connections and has run no better than okay in his two tries beyond 3 miles so far. Stamina is a doubt for me as is his ability to handle the ground should it get really testing.
FORTIFIED BAY, who won two on the bounce last winter, has finished placed twice in heavy ground on both starts this season but has been well beaten on each occasion and last time, when 2nd behind Perfect Candidate at Haydock, his jumping was very poor. Dropped 2lbs for that run, he is now only 3lbs above his last winning mark and has been given 11 weeks to get over the exertions of that gruelling test in the Merseyside mud.
Given the likely underfoot conditions and the marathon trip, it may be best to go with proven stamina here and, that being the case, I have narrowed it down to a final short-list of 5 horses. First to miss out on the final list is THE FERRY MASTER. He is, certainly, very interesting, given his jumping ability and who trains him. In addition, he could be on a lenient handicap mark but, at the current price, he offers no value given he has no form at this extreme distance. This leaves me with a final 4 and the next to strike off is BILLY BRONCO. He has no weight here and has been placed over 3m 6f, in The North Yorkshire National 3 years ago, but he didn’t quite seem to stay the 4m 2f of The Midlands National that same year so he just misses out (although he would be first reserve should any of the main selections not run).
The most likely winner of the race is probably LE BREUIL. He, undoubtedly, comes with a few risks as he can find himself out-paced in races at a crucial stage before staying on again. That was certainly the case last time at Warwick and I’m hoping that the extra 4 furlongs here will help in that regard. This is, also, his second run after a wind op and now he realises he can breathe a little easier he may be able to go through the race better. Cheekpieces are, also, added to help and, he is the class angle in the race. Of course, that means top weight, which is not ideal in deep ground, but he is on his lowest ever chase mark. At the odds, he is a win ‘saver’ selection to cover off the stakes of two bigger each-way plays.
The first of those is last year’s winner, BOB MAHLER, who is proven over the course-and-distance, and, following a somewhat luckless campaign so far, will be aiming to improve on his trainer’s 33% strike-rate here in chases in recent years.
For a second pick, LITTLE BRUCE gets the vote ahead of BILLY BRONCO. He is another who has proven form over these marathon trips and comes here a fresher horse than 12 months ago. His jockey may even get an easier lead this time round and be able to dictate the pace, which will help, but I believe his canny trainer has aimed the horse at this race from some way out and the results of the races in the unusual route taken to get here help give us some decent each-way value with the enhanced places available.
TIP: BOB MAHLER. / Tracker: Little Bruce. - Win Saver - LE Breuil