This two mile contest falls broadly in the middle of two other long-distance handicaps, The Northumberland Plate and The Ebor, and a number in here either ran in the former or are entered in the latter and there are a few familiar names on display. 

The market is headed by the Roger Varian 4 year-old ZEEBAND and it is not difficult to see why he is proving so popular. He ran at Newcastle last time, not in The Plate but, in the consolation race where he ran out a very comfortable winner. That was the first try at this trip for this son of Sea The Stars and it brought about a career best. He also wore a visor for the first time on that occasion and that aid is retained here. He has gone up 8lbs for the win and this is likely to be the quickest ground he has experienced on turf so life will be tougher but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he coped with both. 

The runner-up that day at Newcastle was MARGARET DUMONT and she is 5lbs better off with the winner here having been beaten by 2 ½ lengths. Formerly with Mark Johnston, she has been kept mainly to the all-weather for her current trainer and has a very consistent profile. She ran on well at Newcastle, having met a few traffic problems, and saw out the trip really well but is up 3lbs and was soundly beaten on her only start on turf so far this season when connections blamed the quick ground. She may, therefore, find conditions against her here. 

A former winner of this race returns here and that is WITHHOLD. He looks to be the likely main pace angle in the race and there is a possibility he could get an easy lead. He is 2lbs lower than when winning this contest in 2019 but comes here on the back of two poor runs this season where he has failed to beat a single rival home. In addition to his win in this race two years ago, he also placed on his only other visit here so this track, with its long home straight, clearly suits him. He is 8 years old now, so unlikely to be improving, but Oisin Murphy gets the ride for only the second time and he was the last jockey to win on him having been aboard when the horse won a listed contest at Newmarket last August. That was one of a string of decent performances last season and a return to his form of 2020 would put him in with a chance here, particularly if getting a ‘freebie’ up front. 

A horse who likes to race prominently, and who, therefore, could be one who won’t allow Oisin Murphy to dictate things too much, is MILDENBERGER. Mark Johnston’s 6 year-old was highly thought of as a younger horse and ran good races in contests like The Royal Lodge and The Dante. He is now rated higher on the all-weather than turf and ran creditably when finishing 5^th, off 5lbs higher, in The Northumberland Plate last month. He was, however, disappointing last time out when sent off as favourite at Sandown and needs to step up from that. Horses from this yard can bounce back from lacklustre displays so it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise were he to run a solid race and be in the mix for the each-way places. 

This race was won last year by a horse trained by Ian Williams and he has a couple entered here. The first is MANCINI, who also ran in The Northumberland Plate, and he represents the same owner as last year’s winner. Like last year’s winner, he gets the use of some first-time headgear (blinkers) in the race and he comes here after a much improved run at Newcastle. That was his third start of the season and, in an unusual quirk of statistics, he has won on his fourth outing in every season he has raced so far so the omens are good here. Drying ground is also likely to be in his favour with many of his best performances coming on quick ground and he is now back down to his last winning mark. A big doubt, however, is the field size as all of his wins have come in relatively small field contests and he is yet to win a race with more than 9 participants. 

The second Ian Williams’ horse is INDIANAPOLIS. This step back up in trip to two miles could suit this 6 year-old as he has looked a bit one-paced over 1m 6f in each of his last two runs. The first of those came at Newmarket in May where he finished 6^th but was only 3 lengths behind ZEEBAND and he meets Roger Varian’s charge on 12lbs better terms here. He started his racing life with Aiden O’Brien but was quickly moved on to James Given before joining his current yard, following a gelding operation, at the start of this season. His trainer has possibly been finding out about him with each run and, following the improvement last time, yet more will now be expected. He hasn’t won since 2019 but had some decent form this time last year, finishing 3^rd at Goodwood and then running well to finish 4^th at York when stepped up to this trip for the first time. He is now 10lbs lower and has a nice low weight here. The one big concern, however, is the current form of the trainer. 

A horse who has been well backed in the days leading up to this race is RODRIGO DIAZ. He is a lightly-raced improver who progressed well once switched to handicaps last summer. His form has continued to improve this season and he is now 31lbs higher in the handicap than a year ago. He started the season finishing 2^nd to a progressive type, who is now rated 13lbs higher, before winning next time out at Doncaster. The form of that race was boosted last weekend when the 2^nd horse home won at Newmarket but David Simcock’s charge was slightly disappointing, on the face of it, last time when only 3^rd at Kempton. In fairness, he possibly found the slow pace that day against him and a stronger pace here may suit better. He does, however, have to prove his stamina for this trip as he has never gone further than 1m 6f so far in his career. 

Paul Nicholls has only his second flat runner of 2021 entered here and the horse in question is SCARAMANGA. The horse was in good form over hurdles in the spring, winning both starts, and his flat rating of 86 does look very lenient when compared to his hurdles rating of 151. The quick ‘rule of thumb’ often quoted for comparison purposes is to take 45lbs off a NH mark to give a flat rating so, on that basis, he looks ‘thrown in’ here. It’s not always as easy as that, of course, and he made no impression of similar marks last summer when running on the flat and he is yet to win in 10 starts on the flat, both for his current yard and for James Fanshawe previously. He has the possibility of running into a place here but I suspect that this is possibly just a preparation getting him race-fit for some early-season NH races on the better ground he prefers. 

Right at the foot of the weights is the progressive stayer CALL MY BLUFF. His record on turf over this trip or further is 4 wins and a 2^nd place from just 5 runs whilst on all surfaces it is 5 wins from 8 starts. He comes here following a win at Chester last month for which he has been raised 3lbs in the ratings to now stand some 23lbs higher than a year ago. Silvestre De Sousa is a perfect 3/3 when riding the horse and he takes the ride again here. On softer ground, he would have an outstanding chance but he has been pulled out twice already this season due to the ground and he may find that conditions have gone against him here. 

Another horse who ran in The Northumberland Plate is JUST HUBERT and he also ran in this race last year, off 2lbs lower, again, having competed previously up at Newcastle. He could finish no better than 7^th on that occasion but won next time out at Goodwood. He was ridden by Tom Marquand when victorious at the Sussex track and he gets the ride again here. He boasts a decent record aboard the 5 year-old having won twice and finished 2^nd twice in his six rides on the horse. It could be that Goodwood remains the longer-term aim once more, and he is 2lbs above that last winning mark, but connections try cheekpieces for the first time here and they may be hoping that they have a positive effect. 

SLEEPING LION is a horse with some excellent form on the all-weather but, although his turf form is not as strong, he does have a win to his name at this track. Previously with James Fanshawe he won on stable debut in April at Kempton with him and the runner-up pulling well clear of the field. That was a career best and suggested that his new trainer had been able to re-vitalise a horse who had rather lost his way. His next run at Ascot was more disappointing but he ran far too freely that day and had got worked up prior to the race also. His chance was gone almost before it had begun. His mark is unchanged here, so he needs another career-best, but William Buick takes over the saddle and he is riding well at the moment. He, also, has a very good 22% strike-rate at this venue in recent seasons. The quicker the ground the better for this one and, although not always the most reliable, he is one for the shortlist at the current prices. 

In addition to top-weight MILDENBERGER, Mark Johnston also runs LUCKY DEAL and, like his stable-mate, he, too, ran in The Northumberland Plate. He is a bit of an all-weather specialist but faced a tough task from his wide draw at Newcastle and could only finish down the field in 13^th place. He has run down the field in several big handicaps this season but has seen his mark fall slightly as a result and he lines up here off his last winning rating of 98. His best form on turf has been on a fast surface so the dry, hot conditions will be most welcome and Hollie Doyle, who is 2 wins from 8 rides for this yard, takes over in the saddle. Blinkers are replaced by a first-time visor and, although he is currently the complete outsider of the field, he is not ruled out of this by any means. 

GLOBAL HEAT represents Godolphin here and he has something to prove in terms of this trip. He certainly didn’t seem to get home in Meydan over 2 miles in March and, then, when stepped up in trip further at Royal Ascot, he was pulled up in very testing conditions last time. It may be best to excuse him that run but he does have plenty of questions to answer here. 

The 4 year-olds ZEEBAND and RODRIGO DIAZ are clearly progressive and the former, in particular, could be the one to beat. His price, however, offers no value in a race like this and, with doubts about him liking the potentially fast ground, I’m prepared to take the risk of letting him win at that price. 

Instead, I will take a chance on a couple at each-way prices. It’s a bit of a leap of faith, given his form so far this season, but the 2019 winner WITHHOLD is proven over course-and-distance and is the one out-and-out confirmed front runner. There is a chance that Oisin Murphy will be able to dictate and, if so, he could go close. It will need a return to the form he showed last season and, if he does repeat that level, he could now be well-handicapped once more. 

Roger Charlton’s other runner, SLEEPING LION, was of interest but I, also, like the look of Ian Williams’ two runners. He has gone a while without a winner but there were signs on Friday of his horses beginning to come back to form and, therefore, of the two, I’m going to take a chance on MANCINI. He is yet to win in a field as big as this but the drying ground is in his favour and his last two wins have both come off this mark and, given he is also proven over the trip, he gets the nod over stable-mate INDIANAPOLIS. He usually takes a few runs to fire each season and this is his time of year, having shown signs of improvement at Newcastle last time. With plenty of doubts, for various reasons, about others in here, it is worth risking a play on a repeat win for last year’s successful connections. 

Trackers: Withhold / Mancini