Newbury 2.40
DAVID (Elite) - Newbury 2.40 - 3 miles 2 furlongs - Handicap Chase - Class 3 (soft) 14 run
This 3miles 2furlongs contest is named after the former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Mandarin and, whilst there does not look to be any future Gold Cup winners on show here, it is certainly a very competitive race. The track has had frost covers down for the past few days so it is likely that the soft ground may ride a little ‘dead’ and this could turn into a real test.
The weights are headed by MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN who represents in-form trainer Emma Lavelle. Her last 9 runners have produced 4 winners and a runner-up and this 7 year-old is ridden by a jockey who has a perfect 2 from 2 win record when aboard the horse. His last run saw him finish a distant 4th behind the King George hero, Frodon, at Cheltenham and, with him facing nothing of that horse’s calibre here, this a step back in class. His one run in this grade ended in victory at Bangor at the end of September. That was his 4th win in just 4 completed starts for his current yard and he is a horse who has been improving. He is proven over this distance but, although he has won in soft ground, his best form seems to be on a sound surface and he has to concede a lot of weight to a number of decent animals here. Not one to rule out completely however.
The current favourite, at the time of writing, is CUBAN PETE who comes here looking for a hat-trick this season following wins at Stratford and Hereford. He won very easily in the latter race, in soft ground and over this trip, and the form has been franked with the 3rd horse home winning since as well as one of those who was pulled-up in behind. Venetia Williams has a good strike-rate in chases at Newbury in recent seasons (30%) but he is up 9lbs and this is a step up in class for the horse and, with much of his best form being right-handed, there are enough question marks for me at the present price.
In addition to the two aforementioned horses, the only other one in here with winning form over this trip is GET ON THE YAGER who runs here for the red-hot combination of Dan and Harry Skelton. This former smart hurdler, who is approaching the age of 11, has not won for just on 3 years now but he has tumbled down the handicap as a result. This horse loves deep ground and has looked a nice staying type in the past. He finished 3rd in The Midlands National in 2019 and his last win came in The Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, in December 2017, from a mark of 133. He finds himself running off a mark some 11lbs lower here, having been dropped a further 3lbs following his seasonal reappearance at Wincanton earlier this month. On recent form, the horse looks to have it all to do here but he should improve for seasonal debut and, with conditions to suit here, he is one for my short-list for connections who know the time of day.
There are two horses in here who, although not successful over this trip, have both won over this course. The first is DJANGO DJANGO who won on his only appearance here when triumphing in heavy ground over just shy of 3 miles in January. That was off a mark 5lbs lower than here and is his only win over fences, to date, from six starts. Soft ground appears to be key to this 7 year-old but he has been disappointing in both starts so far this season and needs to bounce back to form here. He is a big horse and may have found the Bangor course too sharp for his liking last time. All of his 4 career wins have come on galloping tracks, such as this, and with Jonjo O’Neill junior having been in the saddle for all of those (strike rate of 40% when riding him), they are both plusses here. This is a stable I sometimes struggle to ‘read’ but this has to have a serious chance here and the market currently looks to be under-estimating him.
The other course winner is ORCHARDSTOWN CROSS who lines up here for Jeremy Scott. This lightly-raced 9 year-old didn’t pull up any trees as a hurdler for Tim Vaughan but a switch of stables and to fences saw him revitalised as he completed the 2018/19 season with two wins and a 2nd place from 3 runs. He was stepped up to 3 miles at the start of last season and duly won, first time out, to complete the hat-trick before, possibly, finding his elevated mark too much for him in subsequent runs. He ran creditably on seasonal return last month but was never travelling when, subsequently, pulled up here 3 weeks later. He has to bounce back here to feature.
There are several others in here who are on a bit of a retrieval mission and one of them is COMMODRE BARRY. He enjoyed a decent novice season over fences, last season, barring one aberration where he ran out when leading at Leicester, but has been well beaten in both starts so far this term. He was well behind both MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN and CAPTAIN TOMMY when running down the field at Bangor and, then, finished last of the 6 runners at Exeter where he found the quick going against him. He should be more at home on an easier surface although his trainer has warned that he does not want it too soft.
Another looking to put his last run behind him is KINGS MONARCH. He was pulled up at Haydock, in a race in which he had finished 3rd the year before, when sent off favourite with his jumping badly letting him down. He was sent off favourite on the back of a very comfortable win at Ffos Las in October in heavy ground and a repeat of that performance would see him go close here off a mark just 4lbs higher. He looks to have plenty of stamina, which could be an asset here and, whilst his jumping is a concern, he could still have some slack in his current handicap mark.
An intriguing runner in here is COLORADO DOC who runs for Welsh trainer and owner/breeder David Brace and is ridden by Connor Brace. This 9 year-old has had just 2 runs over fences under rules, finishing 1st and 2nd, but has plenty of experience in the PTP sphere, winning 6 of his 10 outings. He does have a lengthy lay-off to overcome as he has not been seen since winning by 15 lengths at Plumpton in February in heavy ground but did win after a long break when pointing so can run well fresh. This represents a big step up in trip, however, and he never won over further than 3 miles when pointing.
At the bottom of the weights, receiving at least 13lbs from the rest of the field is another Welsh-trained horse AMATEUR. He has only run 4 times over fences and has failed to complete in 2 of those. His other 2 outings, however, saw him finish as runner-up, both over this trip, and the form of both contests has been franked since. His last run in particular, at Carlisle, now looks very good form with several of the runners behind winning since. He certainly has the potential to win this, off his feather weight, but, although he has been well supported in the market in the last 24 hours, he is a risky proposition given his completion record so far.
The head of the market is dominated by horses seen as progressive, and I can see the argument for some of them, but I prefer a couple in here who are looking to bounce back from disappointing recent runs. The first is DJANGO DJANGO who is a big horse who, history suggests, needs a couple of runs to get fully fit and has often struggled round sharp tracks like Bangor, Stratford, Catterick and Aintree. He is much more comfortable on galloping tracks like this and can, hopefully, add to his one course victory under a jockey who gets the best out of him. He looks decent each-way value at the current prices.
For a ‘tracker’ selection, I am going to take a chance on Dan Skelton getting GET ON THE YAGER back to some sort of form off a career- low mark. He should relish a test of stamina in the likely conditions and, hopefully, run into a place for a stable in excellent form in recent days. He just gets the nod over KINGS MONARCH and MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN and, whilst I am happy to stick with just the two picks for tipping purposes, should either of the two selections not line up for any reason, I would nominate KINGS MONARCH as first reserve.
TIP - Django Django / TRACKER - Get On The Yager (reserve / Tricast Perm - Kings Monarch)