Newbury 3.00
DAVID - Newbury 3.00 - Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (aka The Hennessy Gold Cup) - C1G3 - Handicap - Good - 3 miles 2 furlongs - 18 run
The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (formerly the Hennessy Gold Cup) is a Grade 3 chase handicap contested over Newbury’s 3m2f trip and 21 fences and is one of the flagship races of the whole jumps season. Newbury is a fair, galloping left-handed track but its fences are quite stiff and they take some jumping.
This race has produced future Gold Cup winners, such as Bobs Worth, Denman and Native River, in recent years as well as a future Grand National winner, Many Clouds and, whilst it’s difficult to see anything of that calibre in this year’s contest, it is, nonetheless, a very competitive one.
Two factors that strike me straight off this year are, firstly, the fact that the race looks set to be run on unseasonably good ground and, secondly, the number of horses lining up that are usually ridden prominently. This means that there is every likelihood of a strong pace and, therefore, could be a thorough test of stamina.
The weights are headed by BALLYOPTIC and this 10 year-old enjoyed an excellent season last year, winning 3 of his 5 starts. Those victories included the grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase but he was pulled-up in this year’s renewal and he is 5lbs above his last winning mark (although his jockey does reduce that by 3lbs here). He could improve for his seasonal reappearance but his jumping doesn’t always convince and he could be vulnerable off top weight to improving younger rivals.
Next in at the weights is, at the time of writing this, the current favourite VINNDICATION. This horse is, undoubtedly, a talented animal and he finished 2nd in last month’s Charlie Hall Chase and gave a very good weight-carrying performance when finishing 4th in The Ultima at Cheltenham in March. Those two runs, however, continued his sequence of not having won on left-handed tracks. His record on right-handed tracks is, however, 7 wins from 8 starts and his tendency to want to jump right does hinder him going this way round. Connections are trying cheekpieces for the first time to try to help this but, at the current odds, his big weight coupled with his jumping to the right are enough for me to look elsewhere. This horse would be better suited to something like The King George or the big Handicap Chase at Sandown at the end of the season in my opinion.
Having not had a runner in this race since 1999, VINNDICATION is one of two entrants for Kim Bailey in this year’s contest. The other is the 7 year-old TWO FOR GOLD and he has been well supported in the market in recent days. He had some good form as a novice last season and won his first 3 races over fences, with the pick of these coming at Warwick in January, when he beat Hold The Note and Whatmore, with ARDLETHEN, who re-opposes here, back in 5th. His unbeaten run came to an end in The Reynoldstown at Ascot the next month when he finished 2nd behind COPPERHEAD. He is 9lb better off with the winner here but was beaten by 17 lengths. He finished runner-up, also, on seasonal debut last month but that was over an inadequate trip and this test should suit far more.
The aforementioned COPPERHEAD is a horse who caught many people’s eye last season in what was his novice campaign. He started off in low-key fashion before winning at Wincanton and, then, following up over today’s course and distance in December. His most impressive display, however, came in The Reynoldstown at Ascot when he accounted for both TWO FOR GOLD and DANNY WHIZZBANG, who also lines up here. That marked him down as one of the best staying novices and he was well supported for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. He fell at the last, however, in that contest when well beaten and was extremely disappointing on seasonal bow, over hurdles, at Wetherby last month. In mitigation, the Tizzard yard wasn’t in form at the time of The Festival and it has taken them a while to start firing this season and, if you were to forgive his latest effort, he would have a very strong chance here based on the form of his Ascot win and his effort here last December. Stamina looks to be his strong suit and a strong pace here should ensure that it is an attribute worth having.
Stamina also looks to be the forte of the other Tizzard runner entered here and that is MISTER MALARKY. He is a horse I have long considered as the perfect sort for this particular race and he finished 6th last year, off the same mark, in ground that may have been a bit too soft for him. He, then, won the big handicap chase at Kempton in February, off 3lbs lower, staying on nicely and seemingly appreciating the better ground there. He finished 6 lengths ahead of KILDISART on that occasion and finds himself 1lb better off at the weights here. He won the Reynoldstown in 2019 and followed that up with a creditable 4th place in what was a high class RSA Chase that year. He often improves for seasonal reappearance and he has taken the same route here as he did last year, with a run in The Sodexho Gold Cup at Ascot as his prep race. He ran much better in the contest than 12 months prior and he would not have been suited by the soft ground. The excellent Jonjo O’Neill Jnr takes the ride once more and he is one for the shortlist.
MISTER MALARKY is one of four horses in here who also competed in the contest a year ago. Runner-up in the race, off a 10lbs higher mark, was THE CONDITIONAL who showed his liking for this sort of test. He followed up with another creditable run in The Classic Chase at Warwick before winning The Ultima at Cheltenham after travelling powerfully throughout. That, however, was off a mark just 2lbs higher than here 12 months ago so he does face a stiffer test here. He also arrives without the benefit of a run under his belt and recent history, as Alan King found out with Smad Place, suggests that it is preferable to have the benefit of race fitness on your side when lining up here. All of his wins have, also, come in soft ground or worse so he would probably have preferred some rain this week.
In 4th last year and, indeed, in the previous season’s contest, was BEWARE THE BEAR. His long-term aim this season will, undoubtedly, be The Grand National, and so one would imagine his season will gradually build to that spring target, but he has run well fresh in the past. He has the ability, as his win in the 2019 Ultima off a 7lb lower mark shows, but prefers a slower surface and may find himself run off his feet in the early stages of this race. He will, undoubtedly, be staying on better than most at the end but he may find himself too far back to seriously challenge.
The final horse who lined up here 12 months ago is REGAL ENCORE. That was his 3rd attempt at the race and, although he finished 3rd in the 2017 edition, he has failed to complete on 2 occasions. He seems to save his best for Ascot and faces a tough task here.
When THE CONDITIONAL won The Ultima in March he finished a neck in front of KILDISART and Ben Pauling’s horse will look to reverse that form on 3lb better terms. Connections did consider running this horse in last year’s renewal but decided to wait a year and, instead, aim him at this year’s contest. It has, clearly therefore, been a long-term plan and he warmed up nicely for this with a prep run at Wetherby over hurdles. That was the same race in which COPPERHEAD was pulled-up but this lad ran a very strong race finishing 3rd. The cheekpieces, which were deployed with a degree of success for the first time in The Ultima, are back on here and the horse has shown a liking for these big-field handicaps. In addition, the ground looks ideal for him here and, whilst he is officially 1lb ‘wrong’ at the weights, he looks a strong each-way contender with the enhanced places on offer. Definitely one for the short-list.
Another horse who is used to running in big handicaps, despite relatively low mileage on the chasing clock, is CLOTH CAP. He runs off bottom weight here and represents an owner who has tasted victory in this race on a couple of occasions in recent years. The owner has dramatically reduced his string this year but this 8 year-old is one of those he has chosen to hang on to. The main reason for that is probably the fact that he sees him as a Grand National horse and that is probably this season’s ultimate objective. To get into that race, however, he will need to going up in the ratings by a minimum of 7lbs so a win in a race like this would certainly help in that aim. He is a horse who is best served by genuine good ground so, for the first time since his 3rd place in the 2019 Scottish National (when a tip for this service), he should have conditions in his favour. Anybody looking at the result of his last run, when 3rd behind Frodon, will see the ground described as ‘Good’ on that occasion but the truth is that the rain arrived before that race and the ground was considerably softer by the time the race went off – indeed the official going was changed immediately after the race. That means that his run was actually a very creditable one in the circumstances as he continued his good record of only ever finishing outside the front 4 on one occasion in his chase career. He, generally, needs his first run of the season so should benefit for that run and, if not getting too outpaced early on, this stout stayer should be finishing as well as anything at the end. His stable is not one I find easy to figure but he does have the services of Tom Scudamore here, who is a jockey with a 27% strike-rate over fences at this track in recent seasons, and he has a decent record in this race.
Another horse who will enjoy the ground is POTTERMAN. Unlike most of his opponents, he has been on the go since the summer and, barring his seasonal debut in July, has been running well. Alan King’s 7 year-old has a solid record over fences, winning 4 and placing in 5 of his 11 career starts to date and, following his excellent run when just headed in The Badger Ales at Wincanton, he is officially 5lbs ‘well-in’ here as the weights were framed before that race. He can hit the odd fence, and it could be that this a step too far after being kept busy for 4 months, but it’s easy to see him out-running his odds.
Prior to his run at Wincanton, POTTERMAN finished 2nd at Chepstow behind SECRET INVESTOR and Paul Nicholls’ charge is another who has shown his best form on a sound surface. He has gone up 9lbs since that win but runs here off just 6lbs higher and that could be lenient based on the style of victory that day and how the form of the race has panned out. He is on a high mark but ran an excellent race at this track in February when finishing just over 2 lengths behind Native River getting just 3lbs. That was over the bare 3 miles and, although he wasn’t stopping that day, the extra 2 furlongs are a step into the unknown here. He, also, does not have much experience of running in big-field handicaps and won’t necessarily be allowed to dictate on the front end here as he did at Chepstow. That said, his excellent trainer knows how to win this race and he will be 100% primed for this. One for the shortlist.
Another who likes this better ground is LA BAGUE AU ROI and she is also 3 from 3 at this track. She seems to have regressed, however, after a stellar 2018/19 season and was given wind surgery at the start of October. She ran respectably enough in unsuitable soft conditions in The Charlie Hall but her jumping doesn’t always convince and it will take a big improvement for her to feature here.
Two places ahead of LA BAGUE AU ROI in The Charlie Hall was AYE RIGHT who runs here for Harriet Graham who, in addition to training horses, is the clerk of the course at both Musselburgh and Hamilton. This horse probably has a lot of scope for improvement, having had only 5 chase starts, but he did jump very well at Wetherby and if doing so again here he could get a few in trouble. His form this season is, undoubtedly, strong as he finished 2nd on seasonal debut, over an inadequate trip, behind a horse who, subsequently, won The Old Roan Chase at Aintree. The one negative would be his lack of experience in big fields.
Another who is still, relatively, unexposed over fences is BLACK OP. He kept some very good company as a novice chaser, including chasing home Champ at this meeting last year, but only raced over 3 miles once and, also, only won once. His comeback run was decent enough, finishing 4th behind the impressive Imperial Aura at Carlisle, and he does seem best on galloping tracks like this, but his jumping does not convince and he seems to prefer a softer surface than he will get here.
Perhaps not the classiest of renewals this year but it is very competitive and the current betting market emphasises that point. After much deliberation, I eventually came down to a short-list of 5 horses. The first to be eliminated was POTTERMAN as, although he will love the ground and I can see him out-running his current odds, his trainer’s form in the last week is just enough to cast some doubt. The very last horse to go from the list was SECRET INVESTOR. He is another for whom the sound surface will suit, and he does tick plenty of boxes, but he may not get to dictate here as he would like and there does remain a nagging doubt about the trip.
I do want horses on my side who I feel are sure to get the trip. Yes, the ground will not be testing but the likely pace of the race could, nevertheless, make this a stamina test. Three who look to have the necessary stamina are KILDISART, MISTER MALARKY and CLOTH CAP. Others too, no doubt, have the stamina on their side too but these 3 all look to be suited by the likely ground conditions and all 3 have plenty of experience of the ‘rough and tumble’ of these big handicaps. The first name is the main pick, as he looks to have been laid out for this, has had a prep run and has won 2nd time out in 3 of the last 4 seasons but the other two look stout stayers and should, hopefully, be finishing the race strongly. Should any of them not line for any reason, I would nominate SECRET INVESTOR as a replacement.
TIP - KILDISART / Trackers - MISTER MALARKEY + CLOTH CAP (Reserve - Secret Investor)