Newmarket 4.10
NEWMARKET 4.10 Bunbury Cup - 7 Furlongs - 18 run - Going Soft
This 7 furlong handicap, which closes the July meeting, is as competitive as ever and, after plenty of rain earlier in the week, looks set to be run on going that is on the softer side of good.
The Buckingham Palace Handicap, which opened Royal Ascot last month, could be a key piece of form for this race and the current betting market is clearly indicating that. The race was won by MOTAKHAYYEL who made it 4 wins from 6 starts with that success. He was the choice of Jim Crowley that day, from 3 contenders entered by the same owner, and he has chosen to ride him again here. He doesn’t get his pick wrong very often so that, in itself, may be a big pointer here. The horse won at this meeting last year, over 1 mile, so he clearly handles the track but he has gone up 7lbs for that Ascot win and the trainer has expressed concern about easy ground in the past.
There were 3 others in the race that day who turn up here, also, and the one who fared best was MUTAMAASIK who is in the same ownership as MOTAKHAYYEL. He is another who has won 4 of his 6 races but he has never finished outside of the front 3. He raced in a more unfavourable part of the track at Ascot than the winner but he easily fared best of those who raced up the centre and had to race alone for the last two furlongs so did well to finish 3rd. He is now 5lbs better off with the winner so, on that basis, he is weighted to reverse the form given that he was only beaten by just over 2 lengths. He is a course-and-distance winner too, so is another who has proven he handles the track, whilst his prominent racing style is one well suited to this particular course. Ryan Moore is booked to ride and, of those towards the head of the market, I believe he has the best chance of winning. He has been well supported in the betting during Friday and, so, much of the each-way value has disappeared but I would not put anybody off having a win ‘saver’ on him.
Further back down the field at Ascot was KEYSOR SOZE. He is a horse who seems to have been around for ever but is still only a 6 year-old. He was very slowly away in the race at Ascot and that is a bit of a trait with this horse. He is a horse who has enjoyed more success on the all-weather than on turf (only winning one race away from an artificial surface) and that is reflected in a 10lb differential in his ratings between the two. He was dropped another 3lbs for that Ascot run and his excellent claiming jockey takes off another 3lbs here. He should strip fitter, too, for that first run after resumption but it would take a leap of faith to confidently assert that he can turn the tables on his conquerors from that race.
One place ahead of KEYSER SOZE at Ascot was BLOWN BY WIND and he is another who was done no favours by the draw that day. He had previously won on his return in a race where the form has since been franked by the horse who came 2nd. He, then, found himself short of room at a crucial time last time out, behind ARIGATO, but, once clear, he was not really making up ground on the winner as they raced to the line. He is down 1lb following that run and is now 6lbs better off with the winner. He does go in any ground and is one of three representatives from the Mark Johnston stable.
The second of the Johnston trio is the top-weight, and last year’s winner of the race, VALE OF KENT. That win came on Good to Firm ground and, indeed, all of his successes to date on turf have come on similar going. That win 12 months ago is the last time he got his head in front but he also ran well in other top handicaps at Goodwood and York last year and finished 4th in last month’s Hunt Cup. He is now 9lbs higher than last year, so faces a tough task, but he did run well off this mark just last week when finishing 2nd at Epsom in a listed contest. As last year, Frankie Dettori takes the ride and he is likely to prove popular in the market.
The final representative from Johnston is CARDSHARP. He is another horse who has won on this July course, albeit over 6 furlongs, so likes the track. Like many of his trainer’s string, he is a horse that is kept busy but he has not won since last May. That was off a mark some 4lbs higher than he runs off here and, in total, he has won three times off higher marks in the past. He is also 8lbs lower than when finishing 4th in this race, as a 3 year-old, back in 2018 and he was beaten just a length that day. James Doyle, who rides here, was on board that day and was also in the saddle the day he won at this course and he boasts an excellent 24% strike-rate at the track in recent years.
The horse was well beaten on his last two runs but he was badly drawn in The Hunt Cup at Ascot in the first of them and both of his last two races came over 1 mile, a distance he has never won over, so the step back to 7 furlongs looks the right move.
Just ahead of CARDSHARP two years, sharing 2nd place, was SPANISH CITY and he followed that up by finishing 4th in this contest last year. He is a standing dish in these big handicaps but finds himself 3lbs higher than last year and 8lbs higher than two years ago. He is, also, a horse that loves fast ground and has only once raced on going described as softer than good. If the ground doesn’t dry out then he may be a doubtful runner.
LETHAL LUNCH is another who likes to hear his hooves rattle and he has never raced on anything worse than good. He gave a decent account of himself in The Wokingham but conditions are unlikely to be in his favour here.
The aforementioned ARIGATO is a horse who has been thriving in the past 12 months. He is another with a decent course record, having won one and finished 2nd twice in his three runs here to date. His consistency in the last year and his performances so far this season has seen him rise by 13lbs in the ratings since racing resumed at the start of last month. He is clearly a big improver but he does now require a career-best to win here.
John Gosden’s 4 year-old GODHEAD is a bit of an unknown quantity here as he has had just 4 career runs and all of them have been on the all-weather. This is a step up in grade for his turf debut and it is interesting that Dettori is riding for another stable rather than this.
Last Saturday we tackled the big-field 7f handicap at Epsom where one of our each-way selections was beaten into 2nd place by MUNTADAB. As we pointed out last week, Roger Fell’s charge is a real 7f specialist and 8 of his 10 career wins have now come over this distance. He had a largely disappointing season in 2019 but, as a result, he went down the handicap. He has returned since the enforced break in fine fettle and prior to last week’s win he had run 2nd in his two previous outings. He is inching back up the ratings as a result but is only 3lbs higher than last week and is still some 13lbs below his highest winning mark. Indeed, 5 of his wins have come off higher marks than his rating of 90 here and he has also won off 90 too. He is a horse who is clearly thriving at present and his trainer, who won this race in 2018, probably wants to strike whilst the iron is hot. The ground should not inconvenience him and his prominent running style is well suited to this track. He looks likely to make another bold bid.
The final horse that was of some interest to me is the only 3 year-old in the race and that is TOMFRE. He should have won last time out at Sandown and has gone up 4lbs following his narrow defeat but he gets the allowances for his age and he has a perfect 2 from 2 record at this track. He appears versatile with regards to ground and is a definite player in here.
It is undoubtedly a very competitive race once more this year and, although the market is dominated by the two Hamdan Al Maktoum horses, I believe it is worth taking a chance on two in here at nice each-way prices. Firstly, it is not unknown for the supposed lesser lights of the Mark Johnston runners in a race to perform best and CARDSHARP could be the one to enhance the trainer’s already excellent record at this track off a mark lower than his last winning rating and well below that he ran off when performing well in this race two years ago.
In addition, when a horse who is well handicapped hits a rich vein of form it can sometimes pay to stick with them until they reach somewhere near their ceiling again and, in MUNTADAB, we may just have a horse who has been re-energised and capable of winning again. His run style is well suited to this track and I think he offers excellent each-way value.
Of those at the top of the market, who could, in truth, dominate the race, I just prefer MUTAMAASIK and, unless the price allows an each-way wager, he is worth a win ‘saver’ here.
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At ASCOT in the 3.35 July Cup the decision of Richard Hannon to bring THREAT here as opposed to seek victory in Europe as originally planned and to drop down to 6 furlongs looks significant. It's a good looking race in which 3 year Olds traditionally do well and there is market value at around 8/1. A 1/2 point each way is suggested.