Sandown 3.00
Whilst most of the quality is on the other side of the Irish Sea, there are a couple of competitive handicaps on the card at Sandown and the largest field is set to go to post in The Grade 3 Heroes Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles.
17 runners are currently set to go to post and it is a tricky puzzle to try to solve so it is helpful that there are plenty of firms offering enhanced terms of 5 places.
The top-weight in the race is AGRAPART and he is top-weight for a reason. This is only his 2nd venture into handicap company having plied much of his trade in higher grades. His only other run in a handicap came in The Betfair Hurdle, 4 years ago, when he beat a very good field very comfortably. That race was run on heavy going and this horse is seen at his best when the mud is flying. In fact, all 6 of his career wins have come on soft or heavy ground. The conditions here, therefore, look set to be ideal for him but, although these are calmer waters than he is used to, it will still be a tough task off top-weight despite his rider’s 5lb claim. He travelled well last time, at Ascot, for much of the race but faded quickly on the run for home under Davy Russell. The jockey may have indicated that there was a breathing issue and he wears a first-time tongue-tie here which may help. He is big odds for a horse of his undoubted ability and it would not be a surprise to me to see him in the places.
Next in at the weights is BOLD PLAN. He comes here following a fall at Ascot, just a fortnight ago, in a race where he was sent off favourite. He earned that favouritism following a visually very impressive win at Haydock in November when he was also well punted. He has to be respected but, although a winning pointer over 3 miles, he has yet to prove himself over this far over hurdles.
The favourite at the time of writing is ASK BEN who appears here for trainer, and part-time legal counsel, Graham McPherson. This horse is lightly-raced for a 7 year-old is still quite unexposed. He ran well when 4th on seasonal debut at Haydock and followed that up with a 2nd place finish at Cheltenham in December when not getting the clearest of runs. He has gone up 2lbs for that run but he did have some decent form as a novice and, importantly, has proved that he gets this trip.
Like ASK BEN another young up-and-coming, lightly-raced horse near the head of the market is the similarly-named ASK DILLON who represents Fergal O’Brien. The 7 year-old has had only 5 runs over hurdles and has finished in the first 3 on 4 occasions (winning twice). The only time he has finished out of the frame was in last season’s Ballymore Hurdle at Cheltenham and he shaped quite well on belated seasonal debut at Chepstow at the end of last month when finishing 3rd. The horse has been well supported this week and there appears to be plenty of stable confidence behind him. The trainer has an excellent record with his hurdlers at this track and the horse should not be easily dismissed.
There are a couple of horses in the race who have past experience of the contest and who have been placed in the last two renewals.
GOLAN FORTUNE finished 2nd in the 2018 race, behind last year’s RSA winner Topofthegame, off a mark just 2lbs lower than his current rating. Taking into account jockey claims, he is actually, effectively, 4lbs worse off than on that occasion but, after a long time off the track, showed his current well-being with a good win at Cheltenham in November. His claiming jockey won on the only other occasion he was on board and his trainer knows how to target a big race.
The other horse to be placed in this event in recent times is COOLE CODY and he was 2nd last year. This front-runner comes here this time off a 6lb lower mark but he does have to bounce back from a below par effort at Haydock last time. He has been given a bit of a break since that race, in December, and ran well after a very similar lay-off 12 months ago. Connections are applying cheek-pieces for the first time, in an effort to perk him up, and he has raced well in headgear before. He is now 5lbs below his last winning mark which came when making all at Cheltenham in November 2017 and Nick Schofield, who rode him last year, is a very capable pilot. If being allowed to dictate from the front, it is easy to see him holding on for a place, at least, in ground that should not be an issue for him.
4 of the last 10 renewals have been won by a horse trained by Paul Nicholls and he relies on DAN McGRUE here. A triple-winning pointer over 3 miles, he is yet to win over this trip under rules but does relish very soft ground and was not stopping at the line when he won over 2m 5f at Plumpton in November. That win came on heavy ground and enhanced his record on ground officially described as soft or heavy to 4 wins and 2 places from 7 starts. He went up 7lbs for that win but the form of the race has worked out very well so it can be argued that it is well merited. He flopped somewhat next time out Newbury but the ground may not have been soft enough and connections feel they ran him again too quickly so the break since then could be a plus. The fact he has had that break suggests that this has been a long-term target, given the trainer’s record in the race, and the ground should be ideal.
Philip Hobbs is another trainer who likes to target this race and he has won it twice in recent years. He sends the novice BIG SHARK here this year and he has only raced 3 times under rules so is very inexperienced compared to some in here. He does look to have progressed with each start and, after wins at Worcester and Hereford in the autumn, he ran a very brave race when just getting beaten into 2nd last time, on handicap debut at Haydock, by a very tough handicapper trained by Henry Daly. That was over a trip of 3 miles and came in heavy ground so neither the ground or the distance should be a worry here. COOLE CODY was some 25 lengths behind, back in 4th, whilst the 3rd horse home, Silva Eclipse franked the form of the race next time by winning back at Haydock a fortnight ago. With the stable continuing in good form, he has to be on the short-list here.
The Lanzarote Hurdle, run at Kempton in early January, has proven to be a good prep race for a number of recent winners of this contest and ECHIQUIER finished 3rd in this year’s renewal. He was a little fortunate, it could be argued, to finish in that placing as there were a couple of last flight fallers but he did run a solid race and has previously won over this trip, at Hexham, when making a successful British debut in October. He has been dropped 2lbs since that run at Kempton but his relatively low-weight of 10st 4lbs does mean that the owners’ retained jockey, Darryl Jacob, is unable to take the ride as it is 2lbs lower than the minimum he has ridden at in the past year. Even so, he has a very able replacement in the saddle, in the shape of Tom Bellamy,and he has an excellent 33% strike-rate over hurdles at this track in the last 5 years. The trainer knows how to send out big Saturday winners and the horse has a decent chance of making the places.
Another jockey with an excellent record at Sandown is Jamie Moore, although he fares better over fences than hurdles. He is an interesting jockey booking for Chris Gordon on course-and-distance winner GO WHATEVER. That course-and-distance win came on the horse’s last outing in December and it was his handicap debut. He toughed it out well on the day, in very testing conditions, but may have been a little fortunate as a horse coming to challenge on the uphill run to the line un-shipped his rider when closing. He’s gone up 6lbs for that victory but still has a very low weight here which should be a help in the likely stamina-sapping conditions. He was well beaten by BIG SHARK on hurdling debut, in October, but there is no doubt he has improved a lot since then and with proven form at the track, over the trip and in the ground, he ticks several of the key boxes. The trainer is operating at a very healthy 16% strike-rate for the current season and he is set to enjoy his most successful campaign since taking out his licence.
From jockeys with good records at Sandown to one who finds himself at the other end of the scale. Tom Scudamore has not ridden a winner at Sandown in just over 4 years, from just under 40 attempts, and he will be hoping to break that hoodoo aboard REMASTERED for David Pipe. He is a horse who has raced almost exclusively on soft or heavy ground and comes here after a wind operation in December. That procedure came on the back of a 2nd place finish behind subsequent Welsh National winner, Potters Corner, which has seen him go up by 2lbs. The stable is having a decent season and the trainer has had 4 winners from his last 7 runners will be hoping for a change of fortune following the sad demise of Warthog last Saturday.
The horse that has travelled furthest to take part in this race is the Lucinda Russell-trained GRAND MORNING. This JP McManus-owned 8 year-old has never finished out of the first 3 places in 5 starts over hurdles and his 3 wins all came in heavy ground. He does have to prove himself over this trip but he shaped well when 2nd at the beginning of January over 2m 6f at Ayr. One to take note of in the betting.
This is a very competitive contest and that is reflected in the current closeness of a number of horses in the betting market. There are a number of promising runners in this, who could well go on to surpass their current marks quite comfortably, whilst there are also a couple of battle-hardened campaigners. The race could well prove to be a real slog and the ability to handle ground conditions and to stay the trip are going to be important. AGRAPART is certainly one who will not only handle the deep conditions but positively relish them and he could run a big race at a big price. I will probably have a little loose change on him, given the enhanced places, but the weight is a worry. ECHIQUER and COOLE CODY were two others on my final short-list but they just miss out and I’m going for horses who may just have plenty of improvement still in them and, importantly, who have proven that they will handle the ground.
Given the trainer’s record, and the horse’s form in testing conditions, DAN McGRUE looks over-priced and well worth an each-way selection whilst, although very lightly-raced, BIG SHARK looks to be a horse improving at a rapid rate and, also, represents a yard who like to target this contest. Finally, with 5 places on offer, it is worth another dart, at half-stakes, with GO WHATEVER. The 6 year-old has already proven himself over course-and-distance, goes in the ground and has a very low weight which could prove very useful here.
Tips - Dan McGrue + Big Shark / Tracker - Go Whatever