Warwick 3.55
Warwick 3.55 - Paddy Power Handicap Chase - Class 2 - 2 miles 4 furlongs - 13 run - Soft
Credit to everybody involved in taking the decision to move Saturday’s abandoned cards at Warwick and Newbury to alternative dates and the first re-arranged meeting takes place at Warwick on Monday.
The chase course at Warwick offers a real test of jumping, particularly in the back straight where 3 of the 5 fences come very close together and, in a race such as this, it is important to get into a nice jumping rhythm.
This 2m 4f handicap chase looks very competitive and the betting reflects that there are a lot of horses in here with realistic chances.
The 4 horses at the top of the weights all face a step back in trip here from their last run. The one at the top of the weights is ASO who has been such a consistent performer for his trainer over the years. He is, however, now an 11 year-old and has not quite hit some of the heights in the last 12 months or so. Having said that, he has been running in better contests than this in that time and this is his first step into this class since 2018. His record at this level is pretty good with 3 wins from 5 starts although, of course, that was when he was a younger horse. Usually a sound jumper, he fell for the first time in his 35-race career last time out in The Becher Chase (I’m not counting The Virtual Grand National when he came to grief when well clear of the field! LOL!). He has been given a nice little break to get over that fall and lines up here for a stable that are in decent form in recent weeks and, assuming he is not affected by that mishap, he could enjoy himself back in this company. He still holds entries for The Gold Cup and Ryanair at Cheltenham, as well as The Grand National, and he has finished placed in The Ryanair twice in the past. This may be just a prep run for that race at Cheltenham but he is 3lbs below his last winning mark and, if primed for this, is a big price for a horse of his ability.
There are a number in here who may be using this as a ‘sharpener’ ahead of next month’s Festival and, with their eyes on one of the handicaps there, may not be able to blow their marks. Spotting which horses that applies to and which not, however, is not easy. Four of the entrants here all contested The Plate at Cheltenham last year and may well be aimed at the same contest this year.
One of those is MISTER WHITTAKER who finished 3rd in that race, off this mark, and who has only raced once so far this season. That came in The Charlie Hall when, although finishing a creditable 6th, he proved again that he doesn’t get 3 miles. This drop back in trip is more his optimum and he is, also, another who finds himself in calmer waters in this grade.
One place behind MISTER WHITTAKER in The Plate was OLDGRANGEWOOD. Dan Skelton’s 10 year-old had a very productive 2019/20 season, following wind surgery, winning 2 of his 3 starts prior to his creditable 4th place finish at The Festival. He is yet to hit peak form so far this season but has run two decent races in, firstly, The Old Roan Chase at Aintree and, then, at Newbury, finishing 4th on both occasions. He has been dropped by 1lb for that last run but remains 4lbs higher than his last winning mark. His trainer, who trains locally, has an excellent record at the track with chasers, with a 29% strike-rate, and, with brother Harry jocked up, this looks to be the first string of the two they have in the race.
The other Skelton entrant is SPIRITOFTHEGAMES and he, too, ran in The Plate last season, finishing 6th. In all, he has had 12 starts over fences and, although he has only won once, he has finished in the top 3 in half of those contests, including a trio of runner-up efforts in big Cheltenham handicaps in the past two seasons. Connections tried him over 3 miles last time, at Wetherby, but he didn’t seem to stay the trip and, also, received a cut into the bargain. The trainer uses a 3lb claimer here to help his chances but admits that it has been a rushed preparation, following the injury at Wetherby, and he may need the run ahead of a probable return to Cheltenham next month.
Another trainer with an excellent record in chases here is Philip Hobbs and he, too, has two horses entered in the race. GALA BALL actually ran in this race last year when he finished 4th and gets in here today off a mark which is 2lbs lower. That was only one of three occasions where he has failed to finish in the first 3 over fences from 12 career starts with one of the others being last time out when he disappointed at Wincanton last month. He is back down to his last winning mark here but is worse off with OLDGRANGEWOOD at the weights based on their clash at Newbury in November.
Hobbs’ other runner is the novice SMARTY WILD. This 7 year-old got off the mark over fences last month at Kempton, showing a good attitude, over this trip in a class 3 contest. He is a progressive sort, having just his 5th run over the larger obstacles here, and is the choice of Richard Johnson, so looks to be the stable’s main hope. He has gone up 7lbs for his Kempton win, so faces a tougher task here, but he has a nice racing weight and could prove better than this mark in time.
Another novice in this race is LE PATRIOTE who runs for Dr Newland. He was a very good hurdler and made a decent start to his chasing career with 2 wins from his first 4 runs. He was stepped up markedly in class last time and found the water too deep in a Grade 1 at Ascot. This looks a more realistic assignment for a horse who still holds entries in two of the Cheltenham Novice Chases and, although he has raced mainly over 2 miles over fences so far, he did win over this trip over hurdles. His chase mark is still lower than his hurdles rating, which could indicate that there is more improvement to come in this discipline, and his claiming jockey, who has won on the horse twice in the past, takes off 3lbs.
The current favourite for the race, at the time of writing, is TWO FOR GOLD. He had some good form as a novice last season and won his first 3 races over fences, with the pick of those, possibly, coming here at Warwick last January, when he beat Hold The Note and Whatmore. That came over 3 miles, and he has raced mainly over that trip or further so far as a chaser, although he won over this distance at Carlisle on fencing debut. He was well touted for The Ladbroke Trophy earlier this season, but failed to fire, and, then, ran well last time out at Kempton when finishing 3rd. He was rather let down by his jumping that day and his trainer is applying cheekpieces here for the first time in a bid to sharpen up that aspect of his game. He looks to be well suited by the likely soft going and, if jumping better this time, he is the one they all have to beat. The main worry for me, however, is the current form of the yard. Both trainer and jockey have enjoyed excellent seasons so far but, in the last 30 days, Kim Bailey has sent out just one winner and the yard is just not firing in the way it was a month or two back.
An interesting runner in this race is FLOWERY who makes the long trek down from Iain Jardine’s yard near Dumfries. Previously trained in Ireland, where he had 7 runs without ever making the frame, this 9 year-old has only had 9 runs for his current trainer and never finished out of the first 2. He has run 5 times over fences and won 3 of those races and has really been seen at his best in deep ground. He has not been seen out on the track since the end of October, so has a lengthy absence to overcome, but the form of the race he ran in at Ayr, finishing 2nd, has been franked with both the 5th and 6th horses home winning subsequently. He has run well after a long break before and it is interesting that his trainer removes the hood here from this quirky individual as that is an aid he has worn in every start since joining this trainer just over 2 years ago. With other potential races nearer to home later this week, this is a long way for the horse to travel and connections will be wanting a nice return that more than pays for the petrol.
Another horse making a long trip, but this time coming from the other direction, is ADMIRALS SECRET who travels up from Victor Dartnell’s Devon yard. This 10 year-old has improved with age it seems and has shown some good form in the past year or so, progressing up the ratings by 17lbs in the process. Since refusing to race at Ludlow in May 2019, this quirky sort has been ponied to the start and that procedure has coincided with his upturn in form. He is looking for a four-timer here having won over 2 miles on seasonal debut with his previous two wins coming over this trip. His jockey, Alan Johns, has struck up a good rapport with the horse but he does seem to be at his best going right-handed and has done most of his racing going that way round.
ANOTHER CRICK runs in his first chase for nearly two years here, having been off the track for most of that time and, having only returned over hurdles in December. He was a progressive horse when last seen over the bigger obstacles, winning 2 of his 4 races and finishing 2nd in the others, and, with the horse still only 8 years old, connections will be hoping to make up for lost time. His comeback run, at Uttoxeter, was full of promise and showed he still had ability but this is a bigger test and there is always the possibility of the dreaded ‘bounce factor’. If he were to win here it would be some training performance.
With regards to the other two runners in the race, both are out of the handicap here and face a tough task for different reasons. SIR JACK YEATS has been running fairly consistently this season, including a fine performance in The Grand Sefton at Aintree, but his best form is over further than this and he may find both the trip and the track on the sharp side here.
LOUIS VAC POUCH is extremely well-handicapped based on some of his old form for Philip Hobbs and Henry Oliver but he has failed to fire in any of his starts since joining his current yard a year ago and has slid some 16lbs down the ratings in the process.
Historically, his best runs have, largely, come at this time of year, and he ran well in The Plate last March, so he is not entirely a forlorn hope, whilst he hails from a yard which is difficult to read. Any money for the horse could be significant but, on balance, he is one to swerve until showing a bit more.
This is a very competitive race and narrowing the runners down to a short-list has not been easy. The contest features a mixture of progressive horses, with potential to easily out-grow their current mark, and a few ‘old stagers’ who have been familiar faces in these races. Of those who could be on the upgrade, I was interested in SMARTY WILD and, even more so, LE PATRIOTE but, although he is up in class, I kept being drawn back to FLOWERY. He has been a revelation since joining his current yard and, although he does have a tendency to hang left when under pressure, he is the one most likely to lead here and may prove difficult to pass in the likely soft conditions.
Of those with slightly less to hide in their form, I would not be surprised to see ASO run a big race down in this company, despite his big weight, and I will be having a bit of shrapnel on him at his current each-way price. A second pick, however, is OLDGRANGEWOOD who is a good yard-stick for these handicaps and always seems to run his race. He is certainly the solid selection with FLOWERY the more speculative of the two. If either should fail to run, for whatever reason, then ASO would be my first reserve.
TRACKERS – Oldgrangewood, Flowery