Welsh Grand National Chepstow 3.10
CHEPSTOW 3.10 Welsh Grand National
Not for the first time in recent memory, Chepstow is set to host The Welsh Grand National in early January following the initial postponement over Christmas. Following the covering of the track for much of the week, to protect it from frost, the race will be run in what will be very testing conditions. Run over 3m 6f, it goes without saying that horses with proven stamina have dominated the race over the years and, with the ground set to be very heavy, then staying power is likely to be even more important.
For all that this is competitive, and there are 18 runners set to go to post, there is a ‘red hot’ favourite in here in the shape of SECRET REPRIEVE who represents, Welsh trainer, Evan Williams. The 7 year-old is very lightly-raced and unexposed over fences. He has had just 5 runs over the larger obstacles and has won just the once. That came in the Trial race ran here last month when he got the better of 3 horses who re-oppose here. Despite the race being available for entries once more, the original marks allocated when the race was initially framed still stand. He runs here under a penalty, therefore, and has only gone up 4lbs for the win. This means he is 8lbs ‘well in’ when compared to his new revised mark and it’s a similar scenario to the one Native River found himself in when winning the race a few years back. This all means that he carries a very low weight which has to be a positive in these heavy conditions. His chance is obvious, and feel free to have a win ‘saver’ if that is your bag, but, if he were to win, he would be most inexperienced horse to win this contest this century and, with his stamina, also, far from certain, I’m willing to overlook him here in favour of value elsewhere.
Last year’s renewal was run in typical attritional conditions and the horses who came 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all renew rivalries this year. Finishing 2nd last year was TRUCKERS LODGE and he lines up here off 16lbs higher, a mark which comes largely courtesy of his win in The Midland National in March. He clearly thrives in heavy going but, whilst the stable has a decent record in this race, they have not had the winner since 2005 and, the horse is being aimed at The Grand National at Aintree in April so I’m not entirely sure connections would want his mark to go up any higher than it is already.
Back in 3rd a year ago was YALA ENKI. Also trained by Paul Nicholls, he is top weight here and is ridden by King George heroine Bryony Frost. He also finished 3rd in 2018 and has run a number of brave races in staying handicaps over the years, often from the front. He, too, was being aimed at The Grand National at Aintree but his first fence fall there last month may force a re-think and he has always looked more well suited to this test than the one in the spring. He has optimum conditions here but he is 4lbs higher than last year and will not find it easy to dominate this race under his welter burden. He may, however, run into a place yet again.
PRIME VENTURE, who finished 4th last year, finally got his head in front over fences last time out, when winning a novice chase at Sedgefield, at the 13th attempt. He lines up off a 4lb higher mark but does go very well in heavy ground and has run some nice races at this venue. Whilst the favourite is, clearly, the number one hope for the stable, this 9 year-old is no back number and has a nice low weight. He, also, gets the services of Tom O’Brien who has the best record of all the jockeys riding in this race, having won twice previously.
Finishing 5th last year was TWO AMIGOS who looks to be one the most likely pace-setters in here. He finished 2nd in the trial race last month and, although 4lbs better off, he does have 12 lengths to find on SECRET REPRIEVE from that run. That said this race is over 6 furlongs further and, unlike the Evan Williams’ horse, he does have form over this marathon trip. Formerly with David Pipe, this horse, initially, was sent pointing when joining his current yard and, promptly, won 5 races in a row. He continued in good form when returning to racing under rules and won marathon chases at Exeter and Plumpton. The win at Plumpton, in The Sussex National, came in January 2019 and he has not won since, having gone up 8lbs in the handicap. He has, however, run a number of creditable races and looks set to do likewise here.
The only other horse in this field with winning form over this trip is CHRISTMAS IN APRIL. This 9 year-old (who has what might be an appropriate name given present circumstances) is trained by the Tizzard family and a win here would be very poignant given that the race this year is being run in memory of the daughter of Colin, sister to Joe, Kim who sadly passed away earlier this year. They, also, had two others initially entered here, including Native River, but rely on this one alone. He has raced beyond 3 miles in 7 of his 10 chase starts and in those races he has won 3 times, placed 2nd twice and also finished 3rd so he has been ultra-consistent. His one ‘blot’ came in The Midlands National in March when he was pulled up but that was during a time when the stable was in a terrible run of form so a line can possibly be drawn through that run. The stable has been ‘hit and miss’ for much of this season, so far, but this lad did run creditably when finishing 2nd in The Southern National at Fontwell, in heavy ground, a couple of months ago and was staying on well at the line over a trip a quarter of a mile shorter than this. He is 1lb lower here and, whilst that still leaves him 7lbs above his last winning mark, he has a nice low weight and has to go on the short-list.
The horse who won The Southern National in November was CLOUDY GLEN. That win came on seasonal debut and was, also, his first attempt at a trip beyond 3 miles. Stepped up a little further in distance last time in The London National, at Sandown, the horse disappointed somewhat and could only finish 5th. He didn’t jump too well that day, and went left at a few fences, but he didn’t quite seem to see out the trip and this is even more of a stamina test. That said, he goes well in testing conditions and his excellent trainer, who is always one to note in these staying events, has decent record in the race over the years.
One horse for whom the ground, seemingly, cannot be testing enough is RAMSES DE TEILLEE. In 9 starts in heavy ground, in the UK, he has only once finished out of the first 2, winning 5 times, and at Chepstow, in heavy going, he is a perfect 4 from 4. He ran in this contest in 2018 and finished runner-up, off 9lbs lower, one place ahead of YALA ENKI. He, also, finished ahead of him on his return to chasing at Cheltenham in November but is 1lb worse off here with that rival and only beat him by a nose that day. He is another facing a tough task off a big weight but his form in heavy ground, coupled with his very good course form, means he has to be taken very seriously.
RAMSES DE TEILLEE ran last time out in The Becher Chase at Aintree where he finished 7th, well behind stable-mate VIEUX LION ROUGE. That horse has been, harshly in my opinion, raised 12lbs for that runaway success but is another able to run here off just a 4lb penalty so connections, understandably, have decided to take their chance. He is another horse who is best when the mud is flying and has won 5 of his 7 starts in heavy ground. He, also, has winning course form whilst Connor O’Farrell has been on board for both of his last two victories. If he reproduced the form of his Becher Chase win, he would be a strong contender but he is several pounds better over the Aintree fences than anywhere else and, with stamina also of some concern, this is a tough ask for him in this company.
SPRINGFIELD FOX is a horse many were touting as a potential future winner of this race following his fencing debut win here in January in heavy ground. Following a win at Exeter, he was well fancied for the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham but unseated his rider that day and has not been seen over fences since. That looks to have been a deliberate ploy, with this race in mind, and he had his prep race in a hurdle here last month when beaten by an improving horse with race fitness on his side. That would have put this former, unbeaten, pointer spot on for this and he is another who relishes deep ground. He is still unexposed, having raced over fences just 3 times, and could be on a decent mark, but he did win all 3 of his races in the PTP sphere. Whilst I know that connections fancy their chances highly here, the current form of his trainer is of some concern to me and there is not much value, therefore, left in his current price.
Finishing 2nd in The National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham was LORD DU MESNIL and that was one of several good runs at these extreme distances. He has previously run a gallant race when finishing 2nd in The Grand National Trial at Haydock, in heavy ground, and this time last year he, also, won over 3 ½ miles in the Haydock mud. He has warmed up for this test with two runs this season, one of them over hurdles, both of which were over inadequate distances. This race has, clearly, been the long term aim and, whilst he is on a high enough mark, his claiming jockey does reduce the burden by 3lbs. He is a proven stayer, likes heavy ground, and could run into a place. Definitely one for the short-list.
Another who seems best on heavy ground is the Scottish raider, BIG RIVER, who makes the long trek down from Lucinda Russell’s Perthshire yard. This 11 year-old was once touted as a possible future superstar but a series of issues, including an irregular heartbeat, conspired to prevent him really fulfilling some of his early potential. He has, nonetheless, still run some decent races and, at times, has shaped as if really needing extreme distances as he has often found himself well back in the field before flying home late to snatch one of the minor places. That has happened twice at the last two Cheltenham Festivals whilst it was a similar story in last year’s Scottish National. This was also the case on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham, when finishing 3rd behind RAMSES DE TEILLEE and YALA ENKI, and he has a big task to turn around the form from that race.
One horse who looks over-priced to me is JOE FARRELL. This former Scottish National winner has certainly not been in the best of form, so far, this season but his mark has fallen as a result and he is now rated exactly the same as he was when successful at Ayr in 2018. He has to run from a mark 2lbs higher here, as the weights were framed before his new mark kicked in, but this is still a decent mark based on past exploits. What this lad really needs, it seems, is a real test of stamina and, in addition to his win at Ayr, he was placed in The Midlands National, in heavy going, last March. He finished 18 lengths behind TRUCKERS LODGE that day but is now 22lbs better off and, roughly, four or five times the price. He is, also, weighted to beat the likes of YALA ENKI and RAMSES DE TEILLEE and VIEUX LION ROUGE on some of their previous clashes and, if handing the holding ground, he could out-run his big odds and grab one of the enhanced places on offer.
Two others who ran in The Midlands National in March who line up here are DOMINATEUR and CAPTAIN DRAKE.
Both are lightly-raced over fences and the former has been well touted for this race. His two wins in chases both came at this track, so there are no worries with regards to him handling the undulations of the course, and he also handles heavy ground. He was well beaten at Uttoxeter, however, and does have to prove his stamina here.
CAPTAIN DRAKE is currently available at much bigger odds and did show much improvement over fences as last season progressed. After winning on seasonal debut, over hurdles, his form this term has been a little disappointing. Having been pulled up in the race won by RAMSES DE TEILLEE at Cheltenham, he was beaten a long way here in the trail race last month. He, perhaps, needs further than the 3 miles he raced over that day and today’s trip in heavy ground could suit much better. He is now back down to the same mark as when finishing an eye-catching runner-up in The Midlands National but he is another who has to run off a 2lb higher mark here. His claiming jockey, however, does take off 3lbs and, in first-time cheekpieces, it would not be a surprise to me to see this 8 year-old run a big race here for a trainer who has been in very good form in the last month.
In the hope of the course passing its early-morning inspection, I think it’s worth taking a chance on CHRISTMAS IN APRIL providing the Tizzard with an emotional winner. His comeback run at Fontwell was full of promise, he goes well in testing conditions and, having won both the Sussex and Devon Nationals, as a novice, is proven over these extreme stamina tests. The stable, also, won this race in both 2016 and 2018 and, whilst this one does not have the undoubted class of those two winners, he has a nice low weight here which could be key in the ground.
As a back up to him, RAMSES DE TEILLEE just get the vote ahead of YALA ENKI (who looks a solid each-way contender and would be first reserve should any of the picks be non-runners) as, despite his high mark, he has won races carrying big weights before. He is proven on heavy ground, goes well at this track and has run an excellent race in this contest previously. In addition to YALA ENKI, both LORD DU MESNIL and TWO AMIGOS were of interest but, at the prices, I can’t resist a small each-way bet on JOE FARRELL. He is a more risky proposition, no doubt, but that is factored into the price and he is another with very little weight. Make sure you get the enhanced places on offer, if available, for that one.
TIPS - Christmas In April + Ramses De Teillee / TRACKER - Joe Farrell