Friday 22nd December

Ayr 12.30 3 Vertigo - each way @ 7/1 (SkyBet go odds to 4th place - enhanced race)

(For staking suggestions see logic + few more pointers)

The 12.30 at Ayr is uber tricky, moderate but half a dozen with chances and all compacted value/price wise.

I could give strong chances to Ceegem and Cruachan, they are weighted to finish side by side literally on form analysis

of a recent race they competed in together, Craiganboy returns to hurdles off a nice mark but will need to be ridden very

tenderly to get the trip (Hughes can do that) but closer inspection shows, best form is usually in the spring, and maybe a

day out for The Owners today for a Christmas Carvery??, Transient Bay has won fresh but also has needed runs in the

past, the dark horse is ARDMILAN who could be thrown in on Irish form but hard to know what ability remains.

The one though who most catches the eye is VERTIGO; notionally stable 2nd string so Claimer takes a nice chunk of

weight off; a Course winner off 114 over 2 furlongs further making all and off 110-5lbs Claim here; surely they will want

to crank it up from the front and get the other at it down the log straight, they know, if they get the pace right; can stay

and stay and with SKYBET offering odds to 4th, looks an each way punt if trying that today.

I also looked at the 1.05 and cant separate NAKADAM and PRESENTED, two horses who are too honest and brave

for their own good, rarely run a bad race and both deserve a win. Hard to rule Nortonthorpe Legend out and I think

one my colleagues have picked a few times (Achill Road Boy) struggles at this extended 3 mile trip; as does Lochnell.

So; the suggestion is to play the 3 named in forecast and tricast perms, the one I really wanted a tip on is sadly a non

runner (Smugglers Stash) so perm the 3 up if you want a bit of fun with a few quid playing forecast/tricast.