Chepstow 1.57
Chepstow 1.57 Welsh National Trial - 2 miles 7 1/2 furlongs - 11 run (Soft)
It is what it is " Trial" and some will I think want a good blow 3 weeks before the big race but may not want to blow handicap marks, a few others may need this to get in to the race and to get fully fit. It's really sorting which category they fall in to whilst studying form chances of winning.
Captain Drake, who won on reappearance off a mark of 137, and runner up in Midlands National off 138, on a bit of a recovery mission and probably won't want this mark to go up any higher if Welsh National and then Midlands National is the plan. Deise Alba a Course and Distance winner, nice horse for the Hoobs yard, a big niggle re heavy and one I don't think they will want to bottom out and mess up for bigger chances to come.The Two Amigos, fifth in the 2019 Welsh National. solid performer for a small yard, off same mark as 2019 run in WN and I think this is to put him spot on for the big one in 3 weeks time. Is he wanting to blow that mark?...ot sure he is.
Secret Reprieve and Captain Tommy are more progressive, less exposed types, well backed but I think this needs a mature stronger horse in these conditions today.
LAMANVER PIPPIN is the one they all have to beat and if you want a win saver at 7/2, feel free logic says it's a wise call.
I think on this day though and in these conditions value lies with 2 others.
JEPECK long touted as a prospect has flattered to deceive save for a golden period of form with a 1-2-1-1 run last year where amazingly the mark only went form 129 to 132. Runs off 135 here, ideal in soft, OK in heavy, Course and Distance form a vital requirement and I think they will have targeted this as more winnable than the main Event.
YALLTARI for Venetia, Chepstow, mud, long distance Chase, who better than Venetia?. ran well last time till hitting 3 out, should be spot on fitness wise and another with Course form and strong each way shout.
TIPS - Jepeck and Yalltari.